What are you seeing out in the field these final two days across the Commonwealth?
UPDATE: Also, looks like NLS has a thread of updates here.
UPDATE: As expected, turnout is light. Early report from the Beach, Richmond and Fairfax courtesy of AP.
UPDATE: AP adds Roanoke's light turnout to its reporting:
Midmorning turnout was less than 1 percent in Roanoke, where a lone voter cast a ballot in one precinct; and voting was sluggish in Richmond, Virginia Beach and northern Virginia.
UPDATE: One Republican explains why he's voting for Webb today:
So do your patriotic duty+óGé¼GÇ¥vote for gridlock this fall. As for my first ever Democratic primary vote+óGé¼GÇ¥I'm going cast my ballot for James Webb.
UPDATE: Virginia Centrist has an update thread and this mid-day assessment that jives with the comments here:
Relatively heavy turnout in Arlington, a Webb stronghold.Turnout seems to be adhering to the following formula:
The further you get away from Arlington, the lower the turnout (discounting for some obvious hot spots like Charlottesville).
However, Too Conservative thinks the turnout is pro-Miller: "judging by the REAL low turnout, I believe the Dem. Senate race is turning quick for Miller."
UPDATE: Latest article describing the low turnout - this time at one Beach polling location (apparently as of around 8 a.m.)
UPDATE: Mixed news for both candidates on from NLS (my emphasis):
I've been driving around for a few hours. Most polls in Fairfax County are reporting turnout of 2-3% so far, so we can assume about 5% for the day if this pace continues. McLean turnout is 4-5% (so expect 8-10% by the end of the day) so in Harris' home area turnout is about double the rest of the county.Most voters are saying the same thing. "Want to Beat Allen". If that means what I think it does this could be going to Jim Webb in a big way. If the election is close, Harris Miller won some of these voters.... and Democrats have earned their reputation for choosing electability.
And VC has some "horrible" turnout predictions of 222,000.
UPDATE: FRESH REPORTS THREAD HERE
As a side note-I have loads of lit in my car-will have it in Arlington, anyone needs any-just let me know.
Look of the 40 something Santa (graying, not white) in the Webb shirt.
Harris Miller Spreads Germs in Vienna!
Harris and his gang of two were at the Vienna metro this morning greeting people and handing out fliers. Harris was shaking hands - an exersize in germ spreading if I ever saw one. Ok, ALL politicians are guilty on this charge, but I had to have a little fun with the title.
I ran into a Webb guy (sorry, didn't catch the name) and he was in good spirits handing out Webb fliers. Enviro-friendly union printed fliers. He said the mixed reaction was mixed - and noted there were a good number of Republicans coming through. Hopefully by November many of them will be on our side.
From 7am-9am, Harris Miller was there with 2 staffers. There was a rotation (because people needed to get to work or they just dropped off their children at nearby schools) of 4 Miller volunteers who helped out (including me). We were able to offer a newly released flyer and a copy of the full Washington Post endorsement on both sides of the Metro (both entrances).
Additionally, Don Beyer volunteered for an hour (7am-8am) at the Vienna Metro, wearing a Miller sticker, shaking hands, and seeing some familiar faces.
There was one Webb volunteer who did a real good job getting out his flyer, although he could only be at one entrance. At one point, we said hello and (I think) shared a laugh at the craziness of the whole thing: inundating commuters with flyers, hand shakes, smiles, and all.
Gene
The Miller worker and I started out by having a verbal fist fight, but it got so lonely there with just the two of us that we quickly bonded and became best friends. She shared with me that black people don't vote in primaries and all the black precincts in Richmond will have low turn outs.
I started putting up signs around 5am and stopped at 9pm.
I did countless polling places. (And Mike helped!)
We did not see 1> A single Miller sign at a polling place 2> A single Miller worker.
We did see one Miller sign in the median of a random road.
We are having such a hard time keeping count of all of the Miller signs down here, HaHa!
I just voted. I was #4 and Mike was #5 for A-K at our polling place.
So that gives you an idea, if they keep at that pace, there will be maybe 40 people at my place voting.
Please excuse any typos or whatever, I am working on little sleep and not much brain power.
A Washington Post Reporter was doing exit polls and said is was breaking 55% for Webb. I was voter #138 so was happy about that!!!!
She was also at Clarendon earlier and said it was also breaking Webb but at a slightly slimmer margin.
The precinct that I covered this morning only had 37 voters in the 1st 3 hours. Surprised at how angry Republicans can be in the morning.
Nasty critters.
The last place I went to did have signs, and a paid staffer. He was super nice to me, and we laughed and chatted. Then I came back to the city where I live, and got something to eat and filled up the car with gas.
My analyis?
No one is voting in Richmond in this primary. The people that are voting made up their mind a long time ago. And, yes...the worst part is...there were some cars with Allen stickers on them, and people were getting into them after leaving the polls. So, we'll see.
And yes, turnout has been extremely light.
We'll see if Webb's strength - SWVa, Virginia Beach, Arlington and other pockets of NoVa - will be enough.
"Nearly every party insider and longtime Democratic committee member that I know supports him."
That said, it occurs to me that I talked to lots of folks about the race at the Fifth District Dinner, a couple of months ago, but not a lot of people had made their minds up by then.
I've sampled 4 precincts at 2PM (2 large, 2 small). The larger precincts have higher percentage turn outs. They range from 2.25% to 4.8% turnout. The anecdotal info tells us it is Webb that is bringing the voters out. I’ve even spoken to Democrat leaders who assumed Miller would edge Webb in Albemarle and they have revised their thinking after making the rounds.
This is still just tea leaves, but the tea is talking Webb.
(quote from story)
Webb was endorsed by nine Senate Democrats, including 2004 presidential nominee John Kerry and Schumer, who gave Webb the rare pre-primary backing of the DSCC.
Miller, however, held endorsements by two dozen Democratic state legislators and many more local elected officials and Virginia party leaders and insiders. (end quote)
I think that's a bit unclear/concerning, since it makes it sound like WAY more Virginia leaders are choosing Miller, which I think Webb's team would counter is not the case. I'd like to shoot the reporter an email if possible, but wanted back-up in the form of a full list of endorsements from Webb's team and Miller's team. I know there are people here who track those things, can anyone provide it to me? I've got the reporter's contact info, just want to have full facts to go with.
* Former VA Congresswoman and ‘05 Democratic Lt. Governor nominee Leslie Byrne
* Retired VA Congressman Owen Pickett
* Democratic Congressional Nominee Al Weed
* Former Democratic Whip of the Virginia House of Delegates Chap Petersen
* Commonwealth Senator Phil Puckett
* Commonwealth Senator Patsy Ticer
* Commonwealth Delegate and ‘01 Democratic Attorney General nominee Donald McEachin
* Commonwealth Delegate Jim Shuler
* Former Chairman of the Virginia Unit of the Southern Christian Leadership Conference Dr. Milton Reid
* President Clinton’s Virginia Campaign Chair Chuck Dolan
* Roanoke County Clerk of the Circuit Court Steve McGraw
* Roanoke County Commissioner of Revenue Nancy Horn
* Roanoke County Sheriff Gerald Holt
* Dickenson County Commissioner of the Revenue Ronnie Robbins
* Charlottesville Councilor-Elect Dave Norris
* Page County Treasurer C.R. Suddith
* Washington County Treasurer Fred Parker
* Former Commonwealth Senator Emilie Miller
* Former Commonwealth Senator Madison Marye
* Former Commonwealth Senator Charles Waddell
* Former Commonwealth Delegate Joan Munford
* Former Commonwealth Delegate David Brickley
* Former Commonwealth Delegate Marian Van Landingham
* Former Commonwealth Delegate Jerry Wood
* Prince William County Democratic Committee Finance Chair Harry Wiggins
* Arlington County Board Member Jay Fisette
* Arlington County Board Member Barbara Favola
* Arlington County School Board Member Ed Fendley
* Arlington County School Board Member Mary Hynes
* Arlington County School Board Member Libby Garvey
* Arlington County Treasurer Frank O’Leary
* Arlington County Commissioner of Revenue Ingrid Morroy
* Former Fairfax County Supervisor Rufus Phillips
* Fairfax County School Board Member Janet Oleszek
* Fairfax County School Board Member Catherine Belter
* Former Fairfax County Board of Supervisors Member Lilla Richards
* Alexandria Vice Chairman of the School Board Charles Wilson
Democratic Committee Chairs Endorsing Jim Webb:
* Chairwoman Sara Braaten, Bedford City Democratic Committee
* Chairman Roy Dye, Greene County Democratic Committee
* Chairman Mark Brooks, Cumberland County Democratic Committee
* Chairman Joe Stanley, Franklin County Democratic Committee
* Chairman Danny Edwards, Dickenson County Democratic Committee
* Chairman Thomas Long, Augusta County Democratic Committee
* Chairman Corey Hernandez, Isle of Wight County Democratic Committee
* Chairman Shawn Becker, Grayson County Democratic Committee
* Chairman Thomas Brewster, Tazewell County Democratic Committee
* Chairwoman Kimberly Chiapetto, Floyd County Democratic Committee
National Elected Officials:
* Senator John Kerry, 2004 Democratic Presidential Nominee
* Senate Democratic Leader Harry Reid
* Senator Chuck Schumer, Chairman of the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee
* Former Senate Democratic Leader Tom Daschle
* Senate Democratic Whip Dick Durbin
* Senator Christopher Dodd, former Chairman of the Democratic National Committee
* Senator Debbie Stabenow, Secretary of the Democratic Senate Conference
* Senator Carl Levin, Ranking Democrat on the Armed Services Committee
* Senator Ken Salazar
* Senator Tim Johnson
* Former Senator Max Cleland
* Former U.S. Senator and Member of 9/11 Commission Bob Kerrey
* Congressman John Murtha
Retired United States Military Officials:
* Retired Army General and ‘04 Democratic Presidential candidate Wesley Clark
* Retired USMC General and former Commander of U.S. Central Command Joseph Hoar
* Retired USMC General and former Commander of U.S. Central Command Tony Zinni
* Retired USMC Lt. General and former Commander of Operations, J-3 Staff Gregory Newbold
* Retired USMC Lt. General Frank Petersen, the highest-ranking African American in USMC history
Organizations:
* Laborers’ International Union
* Sheet Metal Workers International Association
* International Union of Bricklayers and Allied Craftworkers
* Lynchburg Voters League
* Vietnamese-American Veterans Coalition
* Falls Church News-Press
* The Roanoke Times
Senior Members of Sen. Chuck Robb’s Staff:
* Tom Lehner – Chief of Staff (1993-2001), Sen. Robb
* Susan Platt – Campaign Manager, Robb for Senate ‘94
* Susan Albert Carr – Scheduler, Gov. Robb; Legislative Aide and Communications Director, Sen. Robb
* Ridge Schuyler – Legislative Director, Sen. Robb
* Peggy Wilhide – Press Secretary and Communications Director, Sen. Robb
* Julia Sutherland – Gov. Robb Press office; Press Secretary, Robb for Senate ‘88; Press Secretary, Sen. Robb
* Rhett Walker – Deputy Campaign Manager, Robb for Senate ‘94
* John DiBiase – Advance Director, Robb for Senate ‘94
* Bryson Monteleone – Assistant to Campaign Manager, Robb for Senate, ‘94
* C.R. Suddith – Controller, Robb for Senate ‘88; Senate Aide, 89-90; Deputy Treasurer Robb for Senate ‘94
* Louise Ware – Campaign Staff, Gov. Robb; Campaign Staff, Sen. Robb
Straw Polls:
* Won the Fairfax County Democratic Straw Poll 58%-42%
* Won the Prince William County Democratic Straw Poll 57%-43%
* Won the Newport News Democratic Straw Poll 77%-23%
Maybe they're recycling stories and only adding the few new lines at the top. Maybe they're buying what the Miller camp is feeding them. Maybe they want to create a sense of balance in order to appear neutral (every good Webb point deserves a good Miller point) - even if it's not accurate.
At this point it's getting a little late in the game to push for MSM corrections. By the time it gets fixed and published the polls will be closed.
If Webb wins the primary, MSM inaccuracy (for whatever reason) is something to stay on top of during the battle with Allen.
Agree completely that MSM inaccuracies will be a big issue if we win today, given Allen's spin ability and his strong connections throughout the state w/ media.
as of about 8:30AM they had 39 voters so far, tepid support for Andy maybe 57-43 at a strong Webb showing at 65-35. Of course these numbers are very very anectdotal and are in no way real numbers, just what I saw.
Word on the street is that Ken has ZERO poll workers out today, even at the high schools where 3-4 precincts vote.
I've been handing out some handbills for Webb at Gate City.
Still light turnout but seems to be favorable to Webb. I saw a few Webb signs at various precincts but no Miller presense at all.
IMHO, We'll be doing good to hit 2% of the registered voters in Scott County (that would be 300 voters out of appproximately 15,000 registered.) I'm Afraid that this doesn't bode well for Webb. I'm going to go back to handing at handbills about 4p.m., probably at Weber City(which is the 2nd largest poll in the County.)
It's like sitting around on Election Day watching the results come in on the TV networks. So exciting, but a little nerve-wracking.
Interesting trend here.. the best performing areas are not the traditional Democractic areas. But are rather the Middle Class and Upper Middle class Burbs'
On average We should have about 40-50 a precinct.. We have number over 50 now, but many only with 25 or so. But I have seen a steady increase over a slow start. If I were to guess of the 20 precincits I have visited we should have about 1,200 votes. If that holds true all of chesterfield will probably be around 3,000 -4,500 votes.
From my random sampling of voters I would gather a 70/30 or better split for Webb.
Last but not least we have signs covering 100% of all tier 1 and 70-90% of tier 2 and 3 precincits. Without a single Miller sign to be seen. At least not in all my driving around the county or at any of the precincits I have visited.
Charles Goin
Only 9 mins to go!