Jon Tester Wins Montana Primary: A Preview of June 13 in Virginia?

By: Lowell
Published On: 6/7/2006 6:12:10 AM

There's a very interesting analysis in MyDD by David Sirota on "The Meaning of [Jon] Tester's Victory: A Win Against D.C. For the Rest of Us."  According to Sirota, "populist" Tester's crushing victory (61%-35%) last night over his top Democratic opponent in the U.S. Senate primary, John Morrison ("the candidate that Democratic Party powerbrokers...tried to anoint"), was a sign that "The winds of change - they are a-blowin' hard out here in the heartland."  Tester will now take on right-wing Republican incumbent Conrad Burns, in what is shaping up to be "Conrad Burns' worst nightmare."  Sound familiar?

Here's some more Sirota on Tester's victory (bolding added for emphasis:

...[Tester] is a guy who clearly and unabashedly represents the populist wing of his party...His victory will likely send yet more shockwaves through the increasingly insulated and isolated Democratic Establishment...

That Establishment has either refused to take basic, concrete positions on the key issues of the day like Iraq, or worse, has high-profile factions publicly insulting middle-class voters, such as when former Clintonites on Wall Street insulted those Democrats who are trying to reform America's sellout trade policy.

But as I have written before, Tester - and other successful Democrats running this year - are doing exactly the opposite. Back in November, I noted how Tester rejected Washington's advice, and took a strong position on the Iraq War. A few weeks back, I also noted how on critical economic issues like trade. These are positions that put him squarely at odds with the national Democratic Party and the Big Money interests that control Washington, but that put him in sync with voters in Montana and throughout the heartland. Put another way, he made the fight against Big Money's hostile takeover of our government a central theme in his legislative career and in his primary campaign - and he was, to the great shock of Washington insiders, handsomely rewarded by voters.

Very interesting.  Does any of this sound familar to our own primary contest here in Virginia between Jim Webb (populist, anti-Iraq War, "outsider" to the entrenched party system, FAIR trade advocate, opponent of big money influence in politics) and Harris Miller (anti-populist, pro-Iraq War, consummate Washington insider/lobbyist, "free trade" and "outsourcing" propoenent, epitome of big money influence in politics)?  Sure sounds familiar to me!  And look at the result: 61%-35% for the Jim..er, Jon Tester.  Verrrry interesting.
A few closing thoughts by David Sirota (bolding added for emphasis):

Finally, to those who derided Brian Schweitzer's way of running campaigns in 2004 and labeled him as a fluke, Tester's victory puts that to rest. Schweitzer, as we see, was the sharp tip of the spear, ripping through the thin veneer that Democratic Party insiders have clung to through election loss after election loss after election loss. Schweitzer - and now Tester (the guy who carried Schweitzer's agenda through the legislature) - are showing those in their state and throughout the nation that the way to really be a political leader is to reject the D.C. insiders who preach caution; ignore the naysayers who seek to turn politics into bland ad campaigns for soap; and embrace an in-your-face politics that tells people you are dead serious about cleaning up our government.

"Sharp edge of the spear?" Strong language, no doubt, but oh-so-true.  To all those Democratic Party establishment figures who "preach caution" while defending the status quo and big-money interests against the rest of us, I say: watch out; your days are numbered!  In Montana last night, and in Virginia next Tuesday night, a wakeup call will have been issued - if you are wise enough to listen to it.

P.S. Oh yeah, one more similarity: Tester was outspent by his opponent but won big-time anyway.  :)

P.P.S.  More signs of political change in Kansas, where Republicans are flipping over to the Democratic Party.  Sound familiar?  According to the USA Today article, it's a growing trend - including right here in Virginia - and "that's got to worry Republicans all over this country."


Comments



Alright! (thegools - 6/7/2006 7:48:49 AM)
I was pulling for Tester.  Great News!


I'm not sure agree with David's analysis (teacherken - 6/7/2006 7:55:34 AM)
the polling data did have some momentum towards Tester, but Morrison was ahead until he got hit with the scandal.  I think, especially given that one of the issues against Burns is supposed to be his association with scandal, that it was this that finally persuaded people to move towards Tester and abandon Morrison.

Don't get me wrong.  I think Tester MIGHT have won absent the scandal, but the lopsided nature of the victory almost certainly would NOT have happened absent the scandal.



Virginia senate race nothing like Montana race (Dave79 - 6/7/2006 10:25:57 AM)
George Allen has not been directly linked to Abramhof unlike Burns.  The only reason Conrad Burns is going to loose is because of how crooked he is.  Before the scandal his approval rating was astrinomical.  If you go to rasmussenreports.com you will see that Allen leads Webb 50%-30% and that Tester leads Burns by 4% points.  "Burns has been hampered by his relationship with convicted lobbyist Jack Abramoff" according to Rasmussen.

It would be nice if an Allen scandal would appear.  By the way interesting fact, Conrad Burns is the only member of Congress, House or Senate side who never attended collge. 



America's Best Senate Candidate (Doug in Mount Vernon - 6/7/2006 11:29:37 AM)
Dave, I think that once Virginia voters begin to hear about Jim Webb, he'll be leading Allen by about 4% also.  Montana voters have been hearing about both Morrison and Tester for quite a while.  And most voters have even seen one of the two men in person.

That is not the case here in Virginia.  Once Virginia voters get to know Webb and his general campaign takes off, the polls will close rank quickly.

Allen is scared, and with good reason---America's best Senate challenger will be gunning for him!



Interesting Analysis (Doug in Mount Vernon - 6/7/2006 11:26:02 AM)
As someone with some family connections in Montana, I've always been fascinated by their politics out there.  It's suge a huge state area-wise, but it's a small population.  It's amazing how easy it is to campaign in a primary in Montana and actually have most voters get to see you in person.  Not sure that's the case here in Virginia, but I think the idea that Virginia's race is very similar in tone and consequence is right on the money.

Go Webb, Go!