Yet ANOTHER great endorsement for Jim Webb. Of course, I'm sure Harris Miller will point out that Carl Levin doesn't vote in Virginia and doesn't understand the state, just as he said about John Kerry, Harry Reid, etc. Attack, attack, attack - that's Harris Miller all the way.
U.S. Senator Carl Levin Endorses Jim WebbLevin: +óGé¼+ôJim Webb is a Leader with Courage and Confidence+óGé¼-¥
Arlington, VA -- Today, Senator Carl Levin endorsed Jim Webb for United States Senate. Senator Levin is the ranking Democrat on the Armed Services Committee and the eleventh Democratic Senator to support Webb.
+óGé¼+ôJim Webb is a legend in the military services, and his values are Democratic values. As a U.S. Senator, he will bring tremendous credibility and principled leadership to the halls of Congress,+óGé¼-¥ said Senator Levin. +óGé¼+ôI look forward to working with him in the United States Senate.+óGé¼-¥
Carl Levin is the longest serving Senator in Michigan history. He was first elected to the Senate in 1978 and subsequently reelected four times. He was recently selected by Time Magazine as one of +óGé¼+ôAmerica+óGé¼Gäós 10 Best Senators.+óGé¼-¥
+óGé¼+ôCarl Levin has been one of the most persuasive and respected Senators for many years. When I was Secretary of the Navy, I knew I could always count on him to help get the job done,+óGé¼-¥ said Webb. +óGé¼+ôI+óGé¼Gäóm honored and thankful to receive his support.+óGé¼-¥
By the way, that makes both Democratic US Senators from Michigan - Levin and Debby Stabenow - that have endorsed Jim Webb. You think that might have anything to do with the fact that Harris Miller gave money to right-wing Republican Sen. Spencer Abraham and urged his re-election over Stabenow? Hmmmm.
They are saying who they want to work with in the Senate.
God that has to be humiliating (at least that's how I would feel) and Miller should get a clue even if he manages to win,
they are right now telling him he's not qualified.
(And they should know, Miller being a lobbyist for 20+ years the Senators have to already be familiar with him).
So some thoughts. It seems like victory is slipping away from Webb for a number of reasons including:
1) Webb is running a GENERAL election campaign during a PRIMARY - In a primary where such low voter turnout is expected, you need to adopt a rifle shot approach to targeting voters and go after the ones who are going to vote. Put another way, do some micro-targeting using
sophisticated databases of voters to identify your supporters then develop out-reach programs to them. Webb it seems has adopted a shotgun approach to targeting voters and is runing a campaign to appeal to large swaths of voters.
2) Endorsements by national politicans like U.S. Senators mean little if they are not backed up by action. Sure I read where Webb picked up Kerry's and Levin's endorsement over the last few days. But they don't provide boots on the ground as local endorsements can and if the only milage you get is a press release and a blurb in the paper its not worth it. If you get the endorsements, use it via mailers or campaign appearances to gin up the base and raise some $$.
3) Webb has no natural or built in base (Miller really doesn't either) to tap into and who he can rely on to turn up at the polls
4) And did I mention, Webb is running a general election campaign during a primary. Zero in on the people most likely to vote and go after them. Don't waste time and money going after people who won't show up at the polls on Tuesday.
Further, just because you don't see it, do not assume that these endorsements do NOT come with boots on the ground or the equivalent. In a couple of cases of national endorsements, it includes email and mailing lists for those figures, which especially if THEY send to THEIR OWN LISTS can be a very powerful inducement for people to turn out and vote.
Again, while I am not totally wired to all that's going on (Lowell is more connected than am I), I have reason to believe that at least some of these endorsements are more than just words. Also, I believe you can continue to expect a continuing roll of additional endorsements, at least a few key more before the primary. And now the literature is getting readily available. here in N Virginia volunteers are hitting all the metro stations. There is a lot going on.
1. I don't think this race would even be close if Webb had been able to coordinate and target mailings earlier (I'm not saying this would have been easy to do given his late entrance). Team Miller has been able to define Webb first in the minds of many likely primary voters who are unfamiliar with both candidates--this is key in any election, especially when both candidates are largely unknown quanities.
On the flipside my sense is that Webb volunteers have been able to make more person-to-person contacts than the Miller camp (we have over 3,000 volunteers and offices in three cities--I doubt Miller's numbers are above the low hundreds--I believe his only office is in NoVA). We've been doing phone calls for several weeks now--and I have to imagine that person-to-person contact has more impact than an robocall or a mailing piece--it's the next best thing to actually meeting the candidate.
As an interesting side note, Miller's "anti-Reagan" mailing piece backfired in parts of VA. Miller actually ended up recruiting some Reagan-Democrats back to the party--albeit for Jim Webb (i.e. I understand that we received some calls from voters saying they loved the new mailing piece--apparently they'd just looked at the picture of Reagan next to Webb). Anecdotally, there have been voters who've expressed concern over the negativity of the Miller mailing pieces (and the largely unpopular robocall by "Sue" for Miller earlier in the primary). There are some voters who have never met Webb, who now view Webb as a "friend of Reagan" and a "warmonger" thanks to Miller, but there are also many savvy primary voters who have been able to see the attacks for what they are, and have told us as much (these are based on feedback from targetted outbound phone calls).
2. As far as the national endorsements go, in any other state but Virginia--and perhaps Maryland, these probably wouldn't carry any weight. However, in Norther VA especially, names like Harry Reid, Carl Levin, and John Kerry are readily recognized and are often selling points. Miller has tried to spin this in a way that minimize their value (which is a good strategy), but it doesn't appear that this approach has been entirely effective. Simply mentioning that Harry Reid contributed $5,000 to Webb is a selling point that I've been able to use to good effect with some primary voters. Also, many voters in NoVA can appreciate the meaning behind these endorsements (e.g. likely commitment from the DSCC in the general election--contrasted with tepid support from the DSCC for Miller). Some people view the DSCC as "too moderate"--so this isn't always a plus. But, based on my experience at least, these have done more good than bad.
As far as local endorsements go, Webb hasn't done too bad in this area. Miller has dominated in Fairfax, but throughout the rest of the state Webb has been able to garner some good support. In the events that I've seen, these local endorsements for Miller, don't appear to have had much impact as far as grassroots and get-out the vote work goes.
As teacherken notes this is an open primary, which adds a level of unpredictability. Anecdotally, I've met quite a few moderate voters who haven't voted in past primaries, who plan to in this one (I'm actually one of these). These voters are an x-factor.
Similarly, it's impossible to know if there will be much impact from anti-Webb, pro-Allen protest voters--I wouldn't be surprised if there were some free lancers, and pro-Allen "cells," if you will, although if there is a well-cordinated, large scale protest campaign, it is being kept very well under-wraps. The anti-Webb campaign in NoVA seems to be mainly directed towards stealing Webb campaign signs.
Another interesting factor is the level of national media attention on this primary. Once again, the impact of this free publicity can't be guaged accurately, but I'm sure it will have some impact. Most of the coverage seems to have been tilted in Webb's favor.
Still, it's anyone's guess how this one will go.
Thanks for the thoughts and perspective.