Do Washington Post Endorsements Matter?

By: Lowell
Published On: 6/2/2006 10:11:09 PM

Do Washington Post endorsements, like the lukewarm one today of Harris Miller, matter?  Short answer:  probably not, based on recent Virginia history.  Take six of the Post's recent endorsements in competitive Virginia races:

1) Bruce Roemmelt (D) over Bob Marshall (R) in the 13th Virginia House District.  Result:  Marshall defeated Roemmelt.

2) John Mason (R) over David Bulova (D) in the 37th Virginia House District.  Result: Bulova defeated Mason.

3) Greg Werkheiser (D) over Dave Albo (R) in the 42nd Virginia House District.  Result: Albo defeated Werkheiser.

4) Earnie Porta (D) over Michelle McQuigg (R) in the 51st Virginia House District.  Result: McQuigg defeated Porta.

5) Hilda Barg (D) over Jeff Frederick (R) in the 52nd Virginia House District.  Result: Frederick defeated Barg.

6) James Lay (R) or Libby Garvey (D) over David Englin (D) in the 45th Virginia House District primary last June.  Result: Englin won; Lay got 12% of the vote.

For those of you keeping score, that's an 0-6 record for the Post editorial page.  To be fair, the Post also endorsed David Poisson (D), who defeated Dick Black (R) in the 32nd House District, and Dave Marsden (D), who beat Michael Golden (R) in the 41st House District.  So that makes the Post 2-6 in competitive races. 

For statewide offices, the Post endorsed Democrats Tim Kaine, Leslie Byrne and Creigh Deeds. Of those three, only Tim Kaine emerged victorious.  That makes the Post 3-8 in competitive Virginia races in the past year.

Oh yeah, the Post also endorsed Sean Connaughton over "hard-line ideologue" Bill Bolling in the Republican primary for Lt. Governor last year.  Connaughton lost.  Make that a 3-9 record.

We could go on and on, but you probably get the point by now.  The Washington Post endorsement ain't what it used to be, if it ever was a big deal in Virginia.

Comments



RE: Good analysis (JPTERP - 6/3/2006 1:18:32 AM)
Lowell, I hope you're right on this one.  My guess would be that the WaPost's influence is primarly in NoVA, which trends leftwards.  In a rightward leaning state it's easy to see how the Post's endorsements would often end up losers in statewide elections. 

It's interesting though that they end up on the wrong side of so many district elections.  Presumably the Post is an influential paper in these areas.  Then again, maybe it isn't.



They also endorced Kerry (demo925 - 6/3/2006 2:09:59 AM)
Where did that get him? Based on the above... it must mean that the Post Ed Endorsement means more for the person who didn't get it.  The post board members are smart folks... they must know their record and know what it does for those campaigns.  So in many ways they endorsed Webb yesterday.


Hey! (Lowell - 6/3/2006 7:19:02 AM)
That's pretty funny. :)  But is it "too clever" or just "too clever by half" for the Post editorial page?  Ha.


A larger question would (Eric - 6/3/2006 7:51:47 AM)
be how much any endorsements matter - and what the track record of various endorsers are.  Are endorsements really endorsements?  Or are they a paper's (or person's) attempt to sway votes?  Or, for the slimy players an "endorsement" is simply a guess at who will win in an attempt to brown-nose.

I've read in a number of places the endorsements DO matter for this primary since the two candidates are unknown to so many people.  That may be true, but would depend on how many of the people who will actually vote in the primary are the ones who answer "unknown" about the candidates.  I suspect that number is lower than the general population.

So, does the WAPO pseudo-endorsement matter?  Yes, in the sense that some of the primary voters, who haven't been following the details (except skimming in the paper) will see and trust the WAPO endorsement.  Personally, I think it will have a lesser impact for the above reason - that the majority of the primary voters will be better informed than just reading a single WAPO endorsement.



COMMENT HIDDEN (Thevapolitio - 6/3/2006 10:20:44 AM)


Then voters who actually READ the WaPo endorsement... (Loudoun County Dem - 6/3/2006 10:33:26 AM)
...may very well end up voting for Webb because they admit he has the far better chance to defeat Allen.

I have also been doing phonebanking and discussing the primary with anyone who will talk with me and I have never had anyone (in any election that I can recall) tell me "I'm waiting to see who the Post endorses.".

As to individual endorsements, Miller does lead in the number of endorers that I have had to look up but when phone banking/talking for Webb I can name drop with no problem (Kerry, Clark, Murtha, Hackett, Cleland, Byrne, unions, etc.) and I don't have to explain who they are or what they stand for, just that they have chosen to stand WITH Jim Webb.



Sorry (phriendlyjaime - 6/3/2006 11:03:13 AM)
I have been doing phonebanking, and I can't tell you the number of people whose response to who they were going to vote for was "I'm waiting to see who the Post endorses."

At the risk of sounding like a bitch, I'm gonna say it:  I just flat out don't believe that.  And I think that it is one of the most laughable, easiest to see through false comments I have ever read.



Never heard that one before (Craig - 6/3/2006 11:13:53 AM)
People wait to see who the Post picks?  Wow.  Just wow.  Well, the people of Bulova's district didn't seem to care much.  Nor did those of Marshall's district.  Or McQuigg's district.

If someone's waiting for a paper endorsement, they are clearly members of soem easily-led minority.



COMMENT HIDDEN (I.Publius - 6/3/2006 12:43:53 PM)


Publius! (Craig - 6/3/2006 2:22:30 PM)
Man, I missed you.  So, is it too late to serve you some tough old Crow en glace for your predictions of big Kilgore win?


I'm not surprised. (phriendlyjaime - 6/3/2006 11:04:46 AM)
I checked out your other commenst; do you work for Miller or Allen?


RE: (phriendlyjaime - 6/3/2006 11:17:41 AM)
The above comment about his other comments was dorected to: by: Thevapolitio  @ June 03, 2006 at 08:20:44 MST


Now playing (kestrel9000 - 6/3/2006 11:44:27 AM)
on dKos:
"Jim Webb almost lost my wife's vote today"


Why pick nits? (Kathy Gerber - 6/4/2006 5:15:58 PM)

Don't sweat the small stuff.


WaPo Endorsement Can Matter (AnonymousIsAWoman - 6/3/2006 6:30:05 PM)
The WaPo editorial endorsing Miller also could have the reverse effect on the outcome of the Primary. Here's one example of how it could influence people to actually do the opposite of what WaPo recommends.

I read all of Tom Shales television reviews. But I seldom agree with his reviews. So, I know his taste and mine are very different. I just figure that if he hates a new show, I'll probably like it. Therefore, I tune in to see for myself.

In the same way, I know the WaPo is an enthuisastic supporter of all free trade deals. Even though their own reporters have written moving stories about how NAFTA, CAFTA and other globalization practices have negatively impacted American workers, the editorial writers continue to insist that free trade helps the economy and workers in the long run.

In the same way, their front page reporters often wrote stories that clearly showed that there was little reason to invade Iraq and a great deal of danger in doing so. Yet, the editorial page was a cheerleader for the Iraq War until even they could no longer ignore all that was going wrong there or the false pretenses under which we went over in the first place.

It's as if the editorial page doesn't read their own news section.

So, I think readers will peruse the editorial and base their votes not just on the actual endorsement but also the reasoning for the recommendation. If they are anti-NAFTA and against offshoring, it may motivate them to vote against Miller.



Maybe I'm looking for a silver lining... (Left Wing - 6/4/2006 12:25:58 PM)
Miller getting a few victories might not be such a bad thing.  I've been worried that republicans would vote in our election to stick us with the weaker candidate.  Maybe if they aren't so clear on who the weaker candidate is, they won't bother.

Also...a few losses keep us from becoming over-confident and not working to full capacity.