Remember, we have over 3,000 volunteers. If each added 4 voters to the pool who would not otherwise have voted, that is an additional 12,000 voters. And btw -- we are going to add many times that number of additional voters
read below the jump for some numbers.
The real issue in the primary is ground game -- according to state board of elections total eligible voters for this primary is 4,516,250
therefore each percent of voters is 45,162.
at 2% turnout is 90,324 and it takes 45,163 to win
at 3% turnout is 135,486 and it takes 67,743 to win
at 4% turnout is 180,648 and it takes 90,325 to win.
Assume for sake of argument that we are talking 3% turnout. Jim's personal appeal turns out 5,000 voters in SW that would not otherwise vote, and 5,000 in Hampton Roads that would otherwise not vote. These are included in the 3% total. He now needs only 57,743 of the remaining 125,486, or only 46% of the remaining votes.
In otherwords, if Jim maximizes new turnout from those who would not otherwise participate, an endorsement like this might well not matter.
That's why phonebanking, door to door, metro stop greeting, using your personal email lists, can make such a difference.
Oh, and btw, I think Jim will pull out far more than 10,000 "new" votes. I think there is a real possibility that he can pull out 2 to 3 times that number, and I do not see that Miller is necessarily going to draw very many non-regulars to the primary. But today is June 2 and the Primary is not until June 13.
I know first hand of this when just one worker from an organizing campaign I was on in King George County called up the head of that local. His name at the time was Arnold Outlaw (Yes, that's his real name). I received a call from him that day telling me there were 500 union members on the way to support a rally I was having. I never saw anything like that and there is a damn goldmine there, especially with Harris Miller's outsourcing record.
The only thing that stands in the way of us getitng their votes is them knowing about the issue and I can't go there because it's not my union and I'm leaving Tuesday for Rhode Island because I'm getting married.
I am not a member of the steelworkers and will try to call Mr. Outlaw, but I think if Jim Webb were to visit that shipyard or at least somebody reach out to the head of that local, you will be very amazed.
They also represent several plants in Richmond that are just as militant.