A Jim Webb Memorial Day

My description will be anecdotal and personal.  I am a committed Webb supporter.  Keep both of these in mind if you continue to read, as I hope you will.

Webb had invited volunteers for coffee and a get-together at 9:30.   I arrived early because I wanted to pick up lawn signs.  I had noticed that the Webb signs in median strips had a habit of disappearing (as I was again to encounter later in the day) and I wanted to have a supply in my car for spots where I saw Miller signs and no (longer?) Webb signs.  While in headquarters i talked with a number of people, and the sense I have is that people are cautiously optimistic about June 13, but intend to keep working as if they were trailing badly.

Jim arrived about 9:30, accompanied by a couple of reporters, including one from the Washington Post (with whom several of us spoke later).   After greeting a few people, Jim spent a few minutes addressing the group.   He told us how during Vietnam people knew exactly how long they would be "in country" -- for the Army 12 months, for the Marines 13.  People began to count down they day they arrived.  As a result people often had very specific memories of what happened on what day.  He reminisced a bit at how bad the period after Tet 1969 had been, because Nixon was going to meet with the N Vietnamese and they wanted to score points and shape the public reaction before it happened.  He said that he would be going to Arlington to visit some graves of people from that time.  He said perhaps a dozen towns claimed to have begun the tradition of decorating the graves of Civil War dead, but regardless of where it started it probably was in the South.   He urged each of us, since we were so close, to try to take the time a visit the grave of a soldier (using that term in the broad sense).

Jim then made a few remarks about the campaign.  He noted that the campaign had started late, so that we were doing 2 years work in several months -- raising money, building an organization, making contact with the people who were the heart and soul of the Virginia Democratic Party.  He referred to a passage in his book Born Fighting, about the battle of King's Mountain, in which he had 7 direct ancestors fight.  They were part of the over-the mountains group, people who came from the other side of the Blue Ridge  to engage the British.  He remarked that the man in charge had told that group of over the Mountain men that each had to be his own officer, take responsibility and initiative.  By contrast the British were so centrally organized that the officer in charge would issue directions by whistle blast.   Jim said that this campaign was like the over the Mountain fighters, that we had not waited for central leadership but had taken the initiative to move things forward, and that he was hopeful that it would make us successful.   He then spent about 30 minutes chatting with volunteers before leaving for Arlington.

I got to the assembly point in Falls Church around 12:30 -- we were asked to be there by 1:00 and the parade was scheduled to begin at 2:00.  The first person I encountered there was a man legendary in Arlington -  Ray Anderson, the founding principal of H B Woodlawn alternative secondary school program (it is not "officially" a school, even though it is).  We had met before -- he had once offered me a half-time job, which was not enough, and our paths had crossed several times since.  Ray had brought his vintage convertible for the parade, and was putting water in the trunk for those volunteers who would march.  We had two vintage convertibles and Jim's camouflage Jeep, although Jim walked rather than ride so that he could shake hands.
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The Miller people were perhaps 200 yards in front of us to assemble, although much earlier in the actual parade route.  When they stepped off I saw about 15-20 signs being carried, and perhaps twice that number of people.  I do not know if the candidate was with them.  

When we finally set off at at bout 2:20, we had over 100 people, over 50 of whom were carrying signs.   Others were distributing literature and candy.  Among those helping were most of the young dems from Yorktown High School, one of whom, now an 11th grader, had been my student in 7th grade in the one year I taught in Arlington.  We had chatted briefly and pleasantly.

I was near the front, directly behind a large Webb sign, carrying a pole with 3 webb rally signs stapled to it, and an American flag flying from the top.  It reached up perhaps 5 feet over my head.  Jim usually walked in front of the big sign, but would periodically go to one side or the other to shake hands, greet people and be greeted by them.  Some people recognized him and called out.  There were people wearing Miller or even George Allen stickers who wanted to shake his hand.   It took us perhaps 40 minutes to complete the route, and at times there were people who actually cheered him.   We also made noise, as Ingrid Morroy, Arlington's Commissioner of Revenue and an early and strong Webb supporter, used a bull horn to call out different calls to which those marching responded.  

I realize that the number of people willing to march on behalf of a candidate is only an anecdotal comparison.   From what I saw of the Miller marchers, most were young, perhaps not old enough to vote.   We had, as noted, some high school students.  We had a group of veterans in their 50's and 60's, some of whom had made their own signs.   There were people with the t-shirts that said "Draft Jim Webb" from when we were still trying to persuade Jim to run.   And up front, marching with Jim, was Chap Peterson, who had tried unsuccessfully for the Lt Gov slot (which he lost to Leslie Byrne, who like Chap and Phil Puckett, another unsuccessful aspirant  for the nomination, have endorsed Jim).

The last part of my "Webb Memorial Day" occurred when my wife and I drove around several neighborhoods in Arlington.  We were actually going to the Apple Store in Clarendon (be forewarned, that now means I have a digital camera with me at Yearlykos), and took our time and took several meanderings on the way home.  The first thing I note is that the pattern of Webb signs disappearing from median strips is continuing, and at this point I am quite positive that the culprits are NOT Allen supporters (although we had his people watching and videotaping us and not the Miller group).  I did replace about 10.    But that was not our purpose.

We were looking for signs in people's yards, because that represents a major public endorsement, one that can sometimes swing neighbors.    This will be a low turnout primary, which while it is open to all registered voters, if we get got 10% of the total registered voters to turn out would probably shock most people.

So what were the numbers.  We only found 17 Webb signs (not counting our own), which would be disappointing, except for this  -- we found NO Miller signs in any yards, and we drove through neighborhoods that represent 7 of Arlington's 40+ precincts.

Now, we could dismiss this as an aberration, except consider the following.   There have been three straw polls at Democratic events around the state, the first (in Fairfax County) at a St Paddy's party sponsored by someone who has endorsed Miller.   The results? Let me quote from the Webb website (oh how I like saying that  -- perhaps I should just call it the WEBBSITE?):

Straw Polls:
    *     Won the Fairfax County Democratic Straw Poll 58%-42%
    *     Won the Prince William County Democratic Straw Poll 57%-43%
    *     Won the Newport News Democratic Straw Poll 77%-23%

I am not aware that  Miller has picked up any major new endorsements since Webb entered the race.  Meanwhile the Webb campaign is expected to announce tomorrow in Richmond another major endorsement.  My information, which is not guaranteed, is that it will be Donald McEachin, a black member of the House of Delegates from Henrico County near Richmond.  If true this would be of major import for the following reasons
1) Miller has had far more support from elected Blacks in Virginia
2) McEachin was the Dem nominee for Attorney General in 2001, losing to Jerry Kilgore (who lost the governor's race to Tim Kaine last year)
3) McEachin is a very close ally of Doug Wilder, the most important African-American politician in the state, formerly LT GOV and GOV, and currently Mayor of Richmond, and a very independent spirit
4) On April 18 McEachin had said that he was going to stay neutral, even as he said he was satisfied with Webb's position on Affirmative Action.  The latter was important because Miller had attacked Webb's position and used that to gain African-American Support.   Read about McEachin's previous statement here

I have no meaningful polling data to offer.  I have watched Jim Webb interact with people at events public and private.  I read what tea leaves I can find.  My sense is that the primary will break his way.  It's hard to come up with real numbers, but he now has over 3,000 volunteers on the ground, which for a low turnout primary is a huge number.   I would not at all be surprised to see him win more than 60% of the primary vote, especially if things like endorsements continue to break his way.

But all of that is speculation.   I am satisfied with my Jim Webb Memorial Day.   And I thank you for your patience in reading as I have shared it with you.

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