There's an interesting analysis by Michael Shear and Dan Balz in the Washington Post today about the growing number of GOP House seats that are considered "vulnerable." Generally speaking, national political analysts have been cautious up until now with their predictions on potential GOP losses this November. But now, as we approach Memorial Day and the polls continue to show a strong advantage for Democrats over Republicans, these analysts appear to be changing their tune.For instance, according to Shear and Balz:
Stuart Rothenberg, editor and publisher of a political newsletter, now has 42 Republican districts, including Drake's, on his list of competitive races. Last September, he had 26 competitive GOP districts, and Drake's wasn't on the list. "That's a pretty significant increase," he said. "The national atmospherics are making long shots suddenly less long."
Right here in Virginia's 2nd District, we have a race - Republican Thelma Drake (pictured above with Jerry "the Duck" Kilgore and "Taliban Bob" McDonnell) vs. Democrat Phil Kellam - whose competitiveness has always been underestimated. "Always," that is, up until now. According to Shear and Balz:
Drake did not attend Friday's fundraiser luncheon [in Virginia Beach] with the president, but her aides said the reason had nothing to with Bush's political standing. They said she was in Washington for a vote on legislation affecting military families.White House officials acknowledge that the president's time is too valuable to waste on safe incumbents. In some cases, the boost from a presidential fundraiser can turn a potentially competitive race into a relatively safe seat, but that was not the expectation Friday. "She's got a real competitive race," a Bush adviser said of Drake, speaking on the condition of anonymity in order to give a candid assessment.
I love it; Thelma Drake stands up the President of the United States, just like Jerry Kilgore did last year, but it has NOTHING to do with Bush's dismal popularity ratings across Virginia. Nope, nothing at all to do with that. No no no. And I'm sure it has NOTHING to do with Drake campaign worrying that this race will become "nationalized," and that people will come to view her as simply a rubber stamp for Bush and the Republican leadership in Congress. Once again, say it with me: "nope, nothing at all!" Ha.
Well, Thelma Drake had better hope to God that this race does NOT become nationalized. Because if it does, according to Amy Walter of the Cook Politic Report, she's in "deep doo-doo," as Bush's daddy once said:
In a nationalized election, the typical laws of gravity get thrown out the window. Under-funded candidates beat better-funded candidates, and entrenched incumbents lose to first-time challengers.
If that analysis is correct, then Drake should be kicking into near panic mode about now. First off, Phil Kellam is not going to be "under-funded." Second, Drake's a freshman Congresscritter who's certainly not "entrenched" by any means. Third, she's up against someone whose tremendously positive name recognition in the Virginia Beach area means that he isn't at all like a "first-time challenger." Finally, Kellam's moderate-to-conservative Democratic political views make him the perfect for his district. Which is why Thelma Drake, well known for being just about the most "faithful to Bush" of anyone in Congress, and also for betraying her district on offshore drilling, is in deep DEEP trouble.
The question is, how many other GOP House seats are in serious jeopardy this November? 30? 40? Or even 70 seats as my colleague Dan calculated a few weeks ago? If an anti-GOP tidal wave hits this fall, who else in Virginia aside from Thelma Drake will get washed out to sea? Jo Ann "Candy Cane" Davis in the 1st District? perhaps? Even Virgil "MZM" Goode in the 5th, Frank "My job is too hard" Wolf in the 10th, or Tom "DeLay/Abramoff" Davis in the 11th.
Time will tell. For now, I continue to see those four districts as long shots. However, they become increasingly competitive the longer Bush's and the Republican Congress' approval ratings stay in the cellar. The flip side is that Democrats need strong challengers to take them on. People like Judy Feder, for instance, who outraised Frank Wolf more than 2:1 in the first quarter of the year. Yes, the 2006 election season could get very interesting before it's out. Stay tuned!