Arizona: A Sign of Things to Come in Virginia?

By: Lowell
Published On: 5/19/2006 6:33:52 AM

According to a new poll on the US Senate race in Arizona, incumbent Republican Jon Kyl's lead has quickly shrunk from 29 points in January to just 7 points now.  His Democratic opponent, Jim Pederson, appears to be surging, and Senator Kyl reportedly has been put "on the defensive."

So what relevance does this have to Virginia, you ask?  Very simple.  If Jon Kyl, who won his last race by 71 points, is vulnerable, then George Allen, who defeated Chuck Robb in 2000 by just 4 points, had better start sweating.  What the Arizona situation also demonstrates is that when Democrats settle on a strong candidate to challenge incumbent Republicans, things start tightening up fast.  In other words, keep your eyes open for new polls after June 13, when Jim Webb is the Democratic nominee for US Senate from Virgnia.  And watch George Allen get "defensive," just like Jon Kyl.

Comments



Question ... (Rob - 5/19/2006 10:19:05 AM)
why hasn't there been any major polling done in Virginia between Webb and Miller?  (or have I just missed it)?


There has been.. (Lowell - 5/19/2006 10:26:27 AM)
right here and here.


Also, Ben Tribbett's poll (Lowell - 5/19/2006 10:27:23 AM)
here


No ... (Rob - 5/19/2006 2:12:05 PM)
those are polls against Allen.  I'm talking about Webb v. Miller polls.


and Allen, like Kyl... (Craig - 5/19/2006 12:20:21 PM)
...tends to kind of disappear when it's not an election year.  I mean compare Kyl to McCain, or Allen to Old Man Warner.  Huge difference in terms of visibility and "working for the folks back home."

I still remember a story that Kyl himself once told that he went into a store back in 1997 and was not recognized by anyone there, desoite the fact that the store was in his home town.