Some people believe that in November 2006, the voters will return the Democrats to power in the House of Representatives. Some people believe that the districts are so gerrymandered that the Republicans will retain the House no matter what happens. The reality is that the outcome is up to every committed volunteer who wants the Democrats back in power, and the time we are willing to commit to these incredibly important campaigns.
When you look at the House race this fall, several trends emerge:
1) Several Republicans control districts that went for Kerry in 2004;
2) Even districts with more registered Republicans represent far less than a majority of eligible voters in the district;
3) Vulnerable Republicans are MORE vulnerable than in 2004, not less;
4) Vulnerable Democrats are LESS vulnerable than in 2004, not more;
5) Republicans are facing more vulnerable open seats than Democrats.
I work near Capitol Hill, and recently I ran across a Congress guidebook that lists every Congressman and how much of their District vote they took home in 2004. I then considered several issues:
1) Whether it now an open seat;
2) Whether they got a low majority in 2004 (less than 60%);
3) How Bush performed in their district in 2004;
4) Whether they had ethics issues;
5) How long the incumbent had been in office;
6) Whether the race been deemed a target or vulnerable seat.
7) Based on review and feedback from volunteers in other states.
In total, I have identified 70 vulnerable seats for Republicans in 27 states. Each race has a Democratic candidate either vying for an open seat or challenging the incumbent.
How could 70 Republicans be vulnerable this year? Well, in 2006, the issues are very different than in 2004. Besides local issues, no longer can Republicans win these races on issues like gay marriage, guns, National Security, the war in Iraq, and tax cuts. Families are living paycheck to paycheck. Gas prices are going up. Energy prices are going up. Health care costs are going up. The situation in Iraq continues to deteriorate. Iraq war veterans return to see their benefits vanish and jobs disappear. More Republicans have been implicated in corruption. Bush+óGé¼Gäós approval ratings are nearly 15 points lower than they were in 2004. If a Republican was vulnerable in 2004, imagine what they face in 2006.
The Democrats still face some trouble. About 15 seats are in jeopardy. However, this is less than +é-+ the vulnerable seats as the Republicans, and overall the Democrats will face less blame for their problems than their Republican opponents.
Based on my research, I found the Democrats could pick up 12 seats based on current voting trends (disregarding a major voter backlash). I found the Democrats could pick up 30 seats if voters show some backlash against the Republicans (based on the polls that show a majority of Americans wanting to return the Congress to the Democrats, and the possibility of decent voter turnout). For all 70 seats to go, the backlash would have to be tremendous, voter turnout would have to be large for Democrats while Republicans would have to stay home. The Democrats would need a strong platform that rivals 1994+óGé¼Gäós +óGé¼+ôContract with America+óGé¼-¥.
It is less likely that Presidential-only voters who voted for Bush in 2004 will be motivated to come out and vote in 2006. It is more likely that Presidential-only voters who voted for Kerry in 2004 will be motivated to come out and vote in 2006. Voters tend to vote when they think their vote can help change something they don+óGé¼Gäót like, or keep something they do like. Given that polls show two-thirds of the country thinks America is going in the wrong direction, they are more likely to vote for a change.
Although recent elections have been conservative leaning, the Republicans have less to run on in 2006, especially in open seat races. In 2006, people are likely to be more open to the Democratic message than they were in 2004. Things have certainly gotten worse in the past two years, and the more they see an alternative out there, the more likely they are willing to consider it. We can change the course this year, but we have to send our resources all over the country. We have to dispense campaign literature. We have to knock on doors. We have to help set up events and get as many voters to show up to hear the Democratic candidate speak. We have to encourage press coverage.
Democrats need a positive message this year for what can be done to improve America. As volunteers we can share a positive message, regardless of whether our leadership does or not. We should listen to the voters when we talk to them. We should ask them what problems are going on in their lives. We can tell them how the Democrats plan to change that. Democrats have a good voting record supporting alternative energy, expanded health care, education, veteran+óGé¼Gäós benefits, the environment, and the middle class.
Below is a list of key races in 2006. Perhaps you have friends living in this district. Maybe they can volunteer or help out these campaigns. The key is to get the word out about each race and do whatever you can to get out the vote where you live or in a nearby district.
VULNERABLE REPUBLICAN SEATS
Highly vulnerable races (12)
Colorado (07x)
Connecticut (02)
Illinois (06x)
Indiana (09)
Iowa (01)
Nebraska (01)
New Mexico (01)
New York (24x)
Pennsylvania (06, 07, 08)
Washington (08)
Vulnerable races (18)
Arizona (05, 08x)
California (50x)
Colorado (04)
Connecticut (04)
Indiana (08)
Kentucky (04)
Minnesota (02, 06x)
Nevada (02x, 03)
New Hampshire (02)
New York (20)
North Carolina (11)
Ohio (18)
Pennsylvania (18)
Texas (22x)
Wisconsin (01)
Potential seats (40)
Alaska (01)
Arizona (01,02)
California (11,26)
Colorado (05x)
Connecticut (05)
Delaware (01)
Florida (08, 09x, 13x, 22)
Illinois (10,11)
Indiana (02)
Kentucky (03)
Maryland (01, 06)
Michigan (11)
Montana (01)
New Jersey (02, 03, 04, 07)
New York (03, 13, 26, 29)
North Carolina (05)
Ohio (01, 04x, 12, 15)
Pennsylvania (03, 04, 10)
Texas (19, 32)
Virginia (02)
Wisconsin (08x)
*+óGé¼+ôx+óGé¼-¥ means +óGé¼+ôopen seat+óGé¼-¥
**This article can change over time. Some races will become closer and some will become more distant. I encourage feedback on this article, so that we can target every one of these races effectively.
Key campaign resources
Washington Post key races (Governor, Senate, House)
Democratic Candidates for House of Representatives
2004 results analysis
Candidates with ethics issues
Key House Races
What's happening with candidates in VA 4 and 6?
This saddens me.
Neither Brad Blanton or Martin were able to do this.
However, the caucus may change this, they can select to go with no candidate or put their own in.
I can't believe they would pick no candidate, it's absurd. Cantor needs to be taken out. Martin is the man to do this.
This should be the year.
But they keep saying they will probably go with no candidate.
It is very frustrating!
Blanton is an odd guy. I could go on about that, but it's too long of a story. Here is his site.
http://www.blantonforcongress.com/cs/
Here is a site about his work
http://www.radicalhonesty.com/pages/brad_bio.html
What is the local party's problem? Is the idea that Blanton or Dudziak would somehow embarrass the Democratic Party, that they're both wackos or something?
My parents live in the 7th and are eager to vote against Cantor. I'm hoping they'll have that opportunity.
Any VA locals need to start the email lobbying of the 7th district committee. The necessary contact details are
here