The May 21 issue of the National Journal Insider's Poll offers a harsh prognosis for Democrats heading into 2006. Among Democratic insiders polled, just 4 believe that the Democrats will take the House and Senate, with 11 others predicting a Democratic takeover of one chamber or the other. A far greater number of Democratic insiders, 41 to be exact, believe that Republicans will keep control of both the House and Senate in 2006. (Among Republican insiders, 50 believe Republicans will hold onto both Houses of Congress, with just 1 Republican insider forecasting a Democratic takeover of the House and Senate.)Among the 41 Democratic insiders who believe the the Republicans will keep control of both the House and the Senate in 2006, here are some representative comments:
* "Democrats have not shown that we can overcome our interest-group myopia to communicate with real voters.?
* "We still do not stand for anything proactively? no message.?
* "Unfortunately, until Democrats start to stand for something, state it simply and with passion, Republicans will keep winning."
* ?Until the Democrats show that they can establish a game plan and get the match played on their turf, you have to go with the Republicans to maintain control of both houses of Congress."
* "Dems will make gains in both houses, but we have a long way to go."
* "You need a fifth category: Republicans maintain control but lose ground so that the stakes around 2008?the first open presidential contest in decades?are even higher than they already are.?
My take on all this? That most of the insiders make valid points but are way too pessimistic. True, the Democrats need to hone their message and to make it clear what they stand for -- not just what they oppose. And, true, they need a political strategy, including a way to get back in the ballgame in the South. Finally, they need top-notch candidates, tactics, and a little luck breaking their way. But none of this is impossible, especially given the dismal poll ratings for President Bush and the Republican Congress right now.
In many ways, in fact, the current sitution resembles 1994, when the Republicans took control of the House for the first time in 20 years. Prior to that election, which none of the "insiders" predicted by the way, the Democrats controlled the White House and both Houses of Congress, but they were seen by many Americans as moving to far to the left on issues like gays in the military and national health care. Today, the Republicans control both the White House and Congress, and are also increasingly seen as moving too far away from the moderate mainstream, on issues like Terry Schiavo, stem cell research, judges, and the "nuclear option."
One main advantage the Democrats have going into 2006 is that they are down only 30 seats (232-202) in the House, compared to 82 seats (258-176) for the Republicans prior to November 1994. This means that the Democrats need to pick up just 16 seats to take control of the House, compared to the Republicans' gain of 56 seats in 1994. This should be doable.
However, this brings us to the Democrats' main disadvantage: as one Democratic "insider" pointed out, "I would love to predict a takeover in the House, but the gerrymand- I mean, reapportionment impact - is too big to overcome this cycle." That could very well be the case, unfortunately.
In other words, even if Americans decide they want a change in party control of Congress this time around, it will be extremely difficult to achieve given all the entrenched incumbents living in "safe districts" they've created for themselves. Frankly, Republicans like Tom DeLay have been utterly ruthless - and highly effective - at protecting themselves from any potential challenge. This is democracy, you ask? Ha! More like an "incumbent protection racket" run amok.
All of this is exactly why Democrats need to get back into the habit of winning, and need to do it fast. That's just one reason why the Virginia governor's race this year is important, and why we need to work hard to elect Tim Kaine. This is the time to start turning things around. The Republicans have had their chance for the past 4+ years, and all they've done is run up huge budget deficits, watched good jobs go down the drain (and overseas), launch a war at the wrong place and the wrong time against the wrong enemy, seriously run down our military, divide the country more than ever, block progress on finding cures for diseases, and trash the environment.
As Charlie Cook points out in the same National Journal issue, "all of the major elements that led the party holding the White House to get shellacked in four out of five mideterm elections during a post-World War II president's second term seem to be aligning themselves once again. Republicans would be foolish not to worry." In other words, if this isn't time for a change, when will it ever be? If not now, when?