[UPDATE: As of 7:20 PM on Friday, 51 people have voted in this admittedly unscientific poll. Of those, 45 (88%) think Webb's going to win, while only 6 people (12%) think Miller will pull it off. Among people who think Webb will win, 27 say he'll win by close to 20 points (60%-40%), 13 say he'll win by close to 40 points (70%-30%), and 5 say he'll win by around 2 points (51%-49%). If you do a weighted average on these, you get a median predicted victory margin of about 24 percentage points (62%-38%). Just for comparison purposes, Miller lost to John P. Flannery II in the 10th district Democratic primary in 1984, by a 55%-45% margin. This time, 22 years later, it's shaping up to be even worse for Miller. Maybe politics just isn't Harris Miller's calling in life?]
It's a reality Webb supporters have to face - We need a very good GOTV effort to counteract the GOP votes for Miller.
"I don't think Allen will have any problems kicking this guy's butt - but James Webb may give him a run...
Exactamondo! And we have an open primary system here in the Old Dominion so look for a lot of Republicans crossing over to vote for Miller. Personally, if it is between Allen and Webb, I'm going for Reagan's former Secretary of the Navy!"
"With Webb the stronger candidate than Miller, I plan to vote for Miller in the Dem. primary in June (open to all VA voters)."
"You're spot on.
Anybody not taking the Webb candidacy seriously is not a good student of politics. We can easily lose a seat here. Moreover, well have to commit a lot of resources we otherwise might not have had to, were he not so formidable.
He'll campaign very well.
To those of you who want to casually dismiss him, fine. Let me know when you wake up."
**And here is where Webb has the potential to beat Allen**
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Some quotes:
"Why do you favor Webb?
Firstly, because it has been my experience Sen. Allen (or perhaps his staff) purposely ignores every letter sent to him that doesn't agree with his philosophy...
I have written him about CAFTA, the lack of enough armor for our troops, the widening deficit (and I have yet to get a reply)...he is, however, johnny-on-the spot in replying about to conservative issues such as 2nd Amendment rights, need for more highway money in Va., and Justices Roberts and Alito in the letters I've sent.
Secondly, I believe Allen to have ambitions far beyond the Senate (at the expense of my Commonwealth) and, thirdly, he is a bonafide Bushbot on hot button issues such as illegal immigration, budget, and fighting the GWOT with not enough assets.
And, while I cannot stomach a vote for Miller; I'll gladly cast one for Webb...just to see this draft-dodging failed U. Va. QB clown get sacked."
"The adult in the race will be the one who served his country when it called. Not only did Webb serve with valor and distinction in Vietnam, but his son, a Marine, is headed to Iraq. How many members of our so-called poltical elite in either party can say the same?
I am tired of professional politicians. We need more patriots in politics. I am disappointed that Webb is running as a Democrat, but would proudly support him, if I lived in Virginia."
"I was able to hear him speak at the Naval Academy in 1999 (I think that was the year) and he did a pretty good job. I love his books. I won't support his candidacy, but I won't bad wish him bad luck either. He is just an all around good guy from what I can tell."
"But maybe Webb is the type of man who can start the Dems on the road back. Back to a time when being a Democrat did not imply a lack of patriotosm. Too many Freepers would deny such a time existed, but as one who watched the 1960 race I can tell you that it was John Kennedy who was the conservative and Richard Nixon the believer in the New Deal.
Having read Webb's Born Fighting, he has a handle on the people known as Reagan Demorats, and Owens' article is spot on that these people have less voice in the modern GOP than is commonly believed.
Like Owens, I believe that Webb is tilting at windmills as he embarks on life as a Democrat. But for the sake of a country that needs two sane, patriotic, political parties, I wish him fair winds and following seas."
>>>>>Take a look at his current positions on Iraq and the war on terror.
I see nothing wrong with his positon on Iraq. Nothing at all. Not all of those who question what we're doing in Iraq are Michael Moore types, and Webb is uniquely positioned to mount a reasonable critique of Iraq.
"I fear you are right about the leftists in the Virginia Democratic Party. If they have any brains, they'll nominate Webb as he is, and let him have a substantive debate with Warner (sic) over Iraq. But they've never given any evidence of brains in the past."
"James Webb is a candy ass...not for his war record...but because he is the political equivalent of cross-dresser. He's come out of the closet now...and I'll call him a candy ass any day of the week.
Yeah, you call Webb a "candy ass" and you'll do more damage to George Allen's candidacy than to Webb's. Jim Webb could kick both our butts thirty years ago, and probably still could today. We can argue that Webb is wrong on issues, but calling him a "candy ass" is so demonstrably wrong that it will alienate many voters who know better, and relegate some of Allen's best supporters to the kook fringe."
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These are just a few quotes I saved for reference from one rightwing blog alone. There are many others I didn't save.
Into that vacuum comes the Republican activists - they will vote for Miller. What else do they have to do on June 13?
Webb by a slim margin. And then the real work begins.
Allen should draw little comfort from his near 50% favorable polling. There are alot of pissed-off undecided voters out there and incumbents are the focus. James Webb is an outsider with a book full of real bona fides. Allen is getting cozy with Rev. Pat "the Assassin" Robertson, but it won't be enough to insulate him from his allegiance to a failed President.
I think that:
1. Allen will get his people to vote
2. There will be some hardcore Dems who will vote for Miller because he has been a Dem and whatnot. I know several people like this infact and nothing can change their minds!
Let's "rock the vote". Haha.
"VOTE OR DIE" :)
Is there NOTHING we can do?
Besides that, there's nothing we can do as far as I know, unless Democrats change the rules for who can vote in their primary. I strongly doubt they can, though, at this point.
There needs to be a full press GOTV for this primary for two reasons. To ensure Webb is elected, and to see how your system worked and make the necessary changes before November.
"Crossing-over" to vote for a weak or hated candidate could easily backfire if that weak/hated candidate won in November. (It always possible.)
(By the way this is how I vote-always....and in every primary. I vote for the man.)
I am thoroughly disgusted by this.
I am writing him a letter, I think. Not mean, just point blank. He cannot be this selfish and claim to want to take back VA.
I agree with Lowell, Miller oughta just throw in the towel. He was just a placeholder candidate, and frankly his attacking of Webb (brief though it was) soured me to the idea of having him run for another statewide office later.
This quick anger is the enemy of a warrior. It muddies the mind and makes it easy to say and do things that will cost dearly. It is so clear a weakness that I am certain that Allen's people are betting on it.
Against boatloads of money and the best tools of the Republican attack machine (Matalin/Rove) Virginians will need the toughest of the tough. Hard, focused, disciplined. You know who.
The idea that Republicans will come out and vote for Miller is also frightening.
I think Webb could get conservative Republicans unhappy with Allen to come out in droves by talking about offshore outsourcing of DoD contracts, H-1B labor arbitrage replacements, border security.
Allen is a corporate dweeb in this regard and just co-sponsored a "Skil" bill which is a glorified corporate American career professional labor arbitrage and replacement bill.
I already have one troll...I think. Or at least an out of stater who didn't appreciate all of my links, and says that we still aren't sure of Webb's party affiliation.
::rolls eyes::
Anyway, Ben, it sounds to me like you're irrationally angry at me for reasons unknown. That's your right, of course, but don't expect me to be any less angry at you in return. "Weenie of the Week" for suggesting mock questions to ask George Allen, all of which came from his sister's own book and The New Republic article? That was outrageous and uncalled for. I never did anything bad to you, dude. In fact as far as I knew we were friends as of 2 weeks ago. I've defended you on numerous occasions, both publicly and privately. Yet, for some strange reason, now you have turned your venom on me, won't even talk to me or acknowledge my presence, try to sow dissent between the Webb campaign and me, attack me on my own blog, etc. That's seriously f***ed up. As Dannyboy wrote, "get a grip!" Or is this your way to stir up more controversy and gain more attention for yourself?
By the way, if you continue to come over here and attack me, you will be banned. End of story.
He's been ill for a while now. Since Webb's kickoff in Gates City at least, according to his posts.
According to the link he put up..."Mastoiditis is usually a consequence of a middle ear infection (acute otitis media). The infection may spread from the ear to the mastoid bone of the skull. The mastoid bone fills with infected materials and its honeycomb-like structure may deteriorate."
And then...
"Mastoiditis may be difficult to treat because it is difficult for medications to reach deep enough into the mastoid bone. It may require repeated or long-term treatment. Antibiotics by injection, then antibiotics by mouth are given to treat the infection.
Surgery to remove part of the bone and drain the mastoid (mastoidectomy) may be needed if antibiotic therapy is not successful. Surgical drainage of the middle ear through the eardrum (myringotomy) may be needed to treat the underlying middle ear infection."
Yuck.
Is your comment section just for a Lowell love fest? Or is it for discussion and disagreement?
Anyway, I hope you do ban me. Then the entire blogosphere will see what a little coward you are.
I believe that this attack is unwarranted, much like making Lowell the weenie of the week. His questions were posed in a mocking manner. Geeez, if you can't have a sense of humor, why bother.
Plus Ben, you know all about humor. Your site tends to be full of it.
Attacking people, especially when they are on the same side of you, makes you look like an ass actually. It makes anyone look like an ass.
I am sorry that you are sick. I myself have had several illness in the past year, some that have required surgery and a hospital stay. However, it is not fair to lash out.
That being said, I hope you recover soon Ben. Come back to reality Ben!
I hate to call a woman a pussy, but you're a pussy.
Eh.
New endorsements going overwhelmingly for Webb.
My poll shows Webb up 20 in Miller's political home base for decades. Miller is 5% outside the margin of error for existing.
Survey USA puts the Harris Miller positive rating within the margin of error of zero.
Your report from Virginia Beach, the reports from Loudoun, etc.
Multiple US Senators coming next week to endorse Webb.
The primary is over. We just need to ID our people in the primary so we have it for the general election.
That answers your question Susan. But the point is Lowell needs to stop spitting in Harris Miller's face.
Really? Well then...you might make a good point. But let's all work a little harder to be civil with each other.
Sure, Miller is down and it sure looks like he's out. But Miller is well funded and well connected - and I, for one, feel that until he drops out he has the resources in place to make a come back. Probably won't happen, but do you (if you're a Webb supporter) and all the other Webb supporters really want to risk that?
Perhaps there's room to tone it down a bit, but we can't forget about Miller and move on to Allen just yet.
I don't see Miller as out at all.
Vivian, I have been a Democrat all my life and vote for the Democrat on the ticket every time. If there's no Democrat running for an office, I write one in. But this time, BECAUSE I care about my party, if Harris Miller manages to somehow squeek by with a win against Webb, I will actively campaign for Webb or any other Democrat as a write-in candidate.
Here's my reason: Sometimes a win is loss in the long run. George Bush won the election for the Republican Party. Either Republicans didn't do their homework on Bush or they didn't recognize the danger that Bush would be to them. I did. I researched the man. Now many Republicans wish Bush had never won the Presidency. Many of them believe that a Kerry presidency would have served the Republican Party better. People are flocking away from the party in droves and Republicans stand to lose control of Congress.
I will work against Harris Miller, try to get the truth out about him at every turn. (Luckily we have a great candidate in Webb, a man of the highest ethical caliber who we may not agree with on every single issue, but who will make us proud nonetheless.) We are on a roll here in Virginia because of leaders like Mark Warner and Tim Kaine, who have caused people to have a higher opinion of Democrats. Miller would be a lasting detriment to our cause. We can't let him win.
We have to remember the golden rule for Volunteers:
Echo the tone of the candidate.
Where is the stately grandure of Jim Webb in all of these virulent attacks on Miller?
Where is the power of integrity that radiates like an aura of power from a hero, a statesman, a leader, a legend?
Lift up your eyes, this primary is over and it wasn't won but the likes of us, i count myself in this number, who flipped the rock on Harris Miller's past to discover the slimy vermin underneath. This primary was won with three lines:
1. Jim Webb: Harris Miller's campaign seems to amount to nothing more than 10 reasons you shouldn't vote for me.
2. Christian Denny Todd: The lizza article was below the belt.
3. Harry Reid: we're moving into Virginia.
The first showed strenght under fire.
The second showed class and a resistance to engage in smear politics.
The third showed that the highest decision makers had determined they need an ally in the Senate with Webb's integrity.
Miller won't quit. He needs this race to finish in order to build his credibility so that he can run for Lt. Gov in 2009. After the primary, Miller NEEDS WEBB TO WIN, if he does his chances of being Lt. Gov go up 1000%.
That being said, Ben may have a point. If he's right about a bunch of big endorsements for Webb, maybe we should clear the way for Harris to exit gracefully.