Shutting Down Virginia?

By: Lowell
Published On: 4/30/2006 6:41:16 AM

The Richmond Times-Dispatch and Washington Post each has a fascinating article today about Virginia's continued budget stalemate, and the potential for a government shutdown if no compromise is reached by July 1.  As of now, we're in Day #110 of the (Not-So) Great Virginia Budget Stalemate of 2006, with Governor Kaine and the Republican-controlled Senate aligned on one side and the Republican-controlled House of Delegates on the other.  According to the Times-Dispatch:

While it has seemingly prevailed on its demand that the Senate isolate its road-and-transit plan from the budget, the House still opposes the tax increases that senators argue are needed to pay for transportation improvements.

Thus, the stalemate continues.  Will there be a government shutdown?

At least publicly, all sides said they don't want a Washington-style shutdown of state government because of a failure to compromise on a budget.

With most predicting that a budget-transportation deal is still weeks away, it appears certain the General Assembly will make history of a dubious sort.

In 2004, it took 115 days from the opening of the session to settle a rancorous House-Senate budget brawl with a $700 million a year tax increase for education, public safety and human services. This year, that record could be broken by the weekend.

I dunno, but that doesn't sound so good to me.  So what if there IS a shutdown of Virginia's state government?  According to the Washington Post, this could get very interesting:

Virginia Gov. Timothy M. Kaine (D) intends to assert broad executive powers that have never been tested in court to avert a government shutdown in the event lawmakers refuse to pass a new budget before the existing one expires July 1.

The plan calls for Kaine to order many agencies to continue operations as usual, according to several sources who have discussed the issue with the governor's staff. The actions would ease a potentially devastating shutdown while opening the state to the possibility of a precedent-setting legal challenge.

"I am the chief executive, and I'm going to run the state until someone with the power tells me not to," Kaine has said to reporters several times recently.

Apparently, although the legality is unclear, Governor Kaine could declare certain government functions "essential" and unilaterally - Teddy Roosevelt style, according to University of Virginia professor A.E. "Dick" Howard, the principal author of the current constitution - keep them running. But what is "essential," exactly?  Hospitals?  Police? Prisons? The DMV?  Schools?  State Parks?  The State Board of Elections?  What are we talking about here?  And how would this play out, both practically and politically?

According to Larry Sabato of the University of Virginia, Governor Kaine "could emerge from a brief shutdown with the same political boost that President Bill Clinton received when he presided over a federal shutdown after a budget fight."  Sabato adds, "The governor will be running Virginia, lock, stock and barrel. People love action, and they associate action with the executive."

Or, could Tim Kaine be blamed for allowing things to get to this point?  What about the Republicans, will they be seen by voters as monolithic, or will people appreciate the difference between arch-conservative House Republicans and moderate Senate Republicans?  Finally, how will this play in a Federal election year with no state offices up for grabs?  Will voters take out their frustrations on Republicans, Democrats, or neither?  How about any special elections, like the 50th House of Delegates seat, vacant due to the passing of Harry Parrish (R)?

Of course, this is all very unpredictable, but my fearless (or is it foolhardy?) prediction is that a goernment shutdown, in which Governor Kaine acts decisively, will help Kaine - and Democrats more broadly - and hurt Republicans across the board.  At the minimum, it will put Republican candidates like George Allen, Thelma Drake, etc. in an uncomfortable position, as they attempt to explain why Republicans are capable of governing effectively, and Democrats (supposedly) aren't.  No matter what, a Virginia government shutdown will add some serious intrigue to the lazy, hazy, CRAZY days of summer!

Comments



Promise Breakers (Teddy - 4/30/2006 10:00:56 AM)
Governor Warner's compromise budget hammered out two years ago deliberately postponed consideration of  transportation with the explicit  promise to Northern Virginia and Hampton Roads that it would be our turn next time around, if we would just go along with paying new taxes then to bail Virginia out of its budget deficit (given to us by Republican Governor Gilmore) and help to pay for other needs all across the Commonwealth.

It is now next time around, and we find the no-tax Republicans in the House of Delegate are breaking that promise.  They object to the Governor's lobbying for either his or the Senate's Plan, saying it "makes them angry" for the Governor actually to go to the people whom the Delegates (and the Governor) represent. How dare he talk to us, the voters! We hear some Delegates opine that "we don't have a transportation problem in my district; it's a regional problem they can solve for themselves." 

Two years ago Northern Virginia and Hampton Roads areas voted against a regional sales tax for transportation because there was no guarantee that the state would not collect or money and then spend it elsewhere.  Very simply, we did not then, and do not now, trust the government.  All parties at that time agreed that we needed a constitutional amendment tying the hands of the government, putting transportation money into a "lock-box" to protect the funds.  Since such an amendment would take a couple of years to enact, in the meantime Kaine said he would veto any effort by the Assembly to raid the transportation trust fund.

These promise-breakers, this cabal of the Republican Assembly caucus should all be fired for breaking their word, for treating Northern Virginia like a colony, taxing us for their own purposes and stomping us when we need something. These Delegates should stop posing as self-righteous protectors of the public purse and their own dignity, and do what they promised. Pass the Senate Plan as-is.  Now.

To all my grid-locked companions: Call their offices, write them letters, send them FAXes, call the radio stations, write letters to the editor. And then vote 'em out of office as soon as possible.



Well, (Laura86 - 4/30/2006 11:01:39 AM)
It's going to be an adventure, whatever happens.  We're all in it together, as Teddy said contact those legislators.  Lowell I sure as hell hope you're right that a possible shutdown would help Kaine, as someone who wants to see him continue to run for offices beyond governor.


It COULD help Kaine... (Lowell - 4/30/2006 11:05:31 AM)
or not.  I personally don't WANT to see a government shutdown, but I'd rather see that - and have voters blame the "conservative" Republicans - than continued transportation gridlock forever...


See also: Puerto Rico (Arlington Mike - 4/30/2006 11:53:04 AM)
The Government of Puerto Rico has been in the same situation, and is facing a shutdown as of Monday May 1st.  If you go to Google News and just search for "Puerto Rico" and "shutdown," you'll find dozens of articles about the issue on Puerto Rico.  It's startlingly similar, the legislature refuses to pass the Governor's budget, which would balance the Commonwealth's books and help work off the Island's massive debt through a 7 percent sales tax.  However, on the Island, the move is necessary, as PR's government has been forced to borrow massive amounts of cash just to pay government workers over the past couple years, and now needs to get back to fiscal responsibility to avoid a bond rating drop to junk status.  On Puerto Rico, tens of thousands of residents protested outside the capital demanding that the legislature act to avoid putting almost 100,000 workers out of a job, shutting down the schools, etc.

I can't imagine that Virginia will get to this point, we are starting out in a healthier spot and the politics aren't as angry (amazing, given the VA Dem and VA GOP relationship).  But it's an interesting case study. 



Those Who Don't Know History... (AnonymousIsAWoman - 4/30/2006 6:11:13 PM)
are doomed to repeat it. And Republicans obviously learned nothing from the shut down of the federal government during the Clinton Administration. The Republicans, led by New Gingrich, were blamed and suffered in the polls. And it definitely made Clinton look better. Until that point, he had been viewed as a weak leader who stood for nothing. Then, he stood his ground.

I think the Republicans, both nationally and statewide, have a reputation for not being willing to compromise. While voters have said that they admire the fact that Republicans take a stand and have criticized Democrats because they don't know where we stand, those same voters also want their government to run efficiently. And it is precisely because Democrats don't often look like harsh ideologues, it benefits us when we do stand up for something. Meanwhile Republicans simply look like they don't know when to finally compromise to get the job done.

Voters don't like wishy washiness. But they do like pragmatism and good government. And once again, the Republicans are proving that they can't govern.