If GOP Can't Win There, They Can't Win Anywhere?

By: Lowell
Published On: 4/29/2006 10:56:26 AM

As the title might indicate, I'm talking about New York, New York, but not the city or any "blue" area at all.  Quite the contrary, this is deepest "red" America. Here's how George W. Bush did versus John Kerry in 2004 in the heavily Republican, 29th District of poor, Appalachian, western New York State:

Allegany County: 64%-34% (+30 points)
Cattaraugus County: 59%-39% (+20)
Chemung County: 55%-43% (+12)
Monroe County: 48%-50% (-2)
Ontario County: 56%-42% (+14)
Schuyler County: 58%-40% (+18)
Steuben County: 64%-34% (+30)
Yates County: 59%-39% (+20)

In other words, Bush absolutely crushed John Kerry in New York's 29th District.

And now?  Well, there's a House race going on there between an incumbent Republican, Randy Kuhl, who won by 10 points (51%-41%) in 2004.  This year, Kuhl is up against a "fighting Dem" (24-year veteran of the Navy) named Eric Massa. Like Jim Webb, Massa is a first-time political candidate, a Republican-turned -Democrat who has been endorsed by Wes Clark.  It would seem that Massa has his work cut out for him, and that if Republcians can't win here, they can't win anywhere.
Well, don't look now Karl Rove and Ken Mehlman, but a new poll is out showing Massa in a statistical tie (40%-43%) with Congressman Kuhl.  According to Roll Call (subscription service), the results are even more impressive because they come "despite the fact that Massa was not well known to most voters." 

Obviously, this is highly impressive, and could be the early signs of huge Democratic gains across the country this November.  As pollster Alan Seacrest writes, "Add yet another incumbent to the growing list that national GOP groups will be asked to bail out."  I wonder, how many Republicans will need to be "bailed out" in Virginia?  George Allen? Thelma Drake? Jo Ann Davis? Tom Davis? Frank Wolf?  Maybe even Virgil Goode?  You know, this could really get interesting before it's all over.


Comments



I have called for Webb-Massa alliance (Info_Tech_Guy - 4/29/2006 11:10:28 AM)
In an earlier posting, I noted the similarities between Jim Webb and Eric Massa.

I pointed out that the official DNC "Fighting Dems" program seemed to exclude Jim Webb.

I pointed out that Gen. Claudia Kennedy who is involved with the "Fighting Dems" program has attacked Jim Webb as a Miller proxy and lost the position of neutrality one should expect for her to effectively and honestly act within the "Fighting Dems" program. (Kennedy should resign or be asked to resign by the DNC.)

Like Paul Hackett, who was pressured to withdraw from the Democratic senatorial primary in Ohio, Eric Massa is the real stuff of patriotism and integrity -- like Jim Webb.

Neither Mass nor Webb are part of the culture of corruption.

I would like to see both candidate side-by-side discussing the real issues which confront our county. This would be mutually advantageous.

The fact that some national Democrats fail to accord Jim Webb the respect he deserves is both foolish and shameful.



Upstate New York (Teddy - 4/29/2006 11:11:12 AM)
Upstate New York, the Finger Lakes and the southern tier, which Lowell puts in Appalachia (and I suppose that's geographically accurate) was in significant measure settled originally out of New England, or at any rate has long roots going back to the education-oriented Protestant New Englanders, prim, proper, but intellectual. The Chautauqua meetings and lectures, a rather liberal sort of community action in the 19th century was based in this area. And the suffragettes met in Watkins Glen, as I recall.  In other words, there is something more going on in that area than just the usual red state mind set. I'm originally from the Finger Lakes area, and don't forget, we made a lot of wine in those hills, not moonshine (well, maybe a little bit of moonshine during Prohibition, but you get the idea).  Go, Massa!


NY-29 (Craig - 4/29/2006 12:36:11 PM)
To give you some idea of what this district is like, it is far and away the most Republican district in New York.  This is the former district of Barry Goldwater's running mate, Bill Miller.

But in New York, even this strongly GOP district is at least 40% Democrat.  This is definitely winnable, especially with the New York GOP basically desintegrating.



Eric Massa is a winner (Debby - 4/29/2006 1:50:02 PM)
With his background of national service, his associations with great leaders like Wes Clark, his personal determination to make things better and get this country out of the hands of extreme Republicans, Eric can win this district. 

Google Randy Kuhl, his opponent.  You'll probably find something about him pulling a shotgun on his wife at a party.  A man who reeks of George Bush's policies, and who has watched as jobs have disintegrated from his district. 

For a long time, Eric was ignored by Rahm Emanuel of the DCCC.  He hung in there and has slowly begun to win over voters in the district.  With the constant support of Wes Clark and his supporters, Eric put together a great campaign than is now making it obvious he's a winner.  Now the DCCC backs him--finally. 

If you can help Eric Massa at all, even if its $5, please donate through http://securingamerica.com/taxonomy/term/45.  This is one House seat he can help us take away from the Republicans.



"Quasi-Repubican" -- I Think Not (Rick O'Dell - 4/29/2006 2:10:46 PM)
A fellow veteran wrote me this morning indicating that he couldn't support Jim Webb because he is a "quasi-Republican."

Candidates like Eric Massa and Jim Webb should be openly welcomed and heartily embraced by Democrats.  Literally and symbolically, they are the vanguard of the disenchanted moderate Republican voters we need to return the Democratic Party to prominence.

We say we are an “inclusive” party.  If so, we must willingly accept among us those Republicans who now believe the Democratic Party offers a viable vision and alternative to the status quo.

Instead of labeling them as "quasi-Republicans," let's welcome them as moderate Democrats. 



people should read Jim's book (teacherken - 4/29/2006 5:11:45 PM)
Born Fighting to realize how un-Republican he is.  He is truly like the Scot Irish of who he writes.  He is blunt to a fault.

Yes, he worked for John Paul Hammerschmidt (to whom Bill Clinton once lost a Congressional race), and for Ronald Reagan.  But a lot of Dems voted for Reagan, and if we wrote them all off no Dem would win nationally. 

I will say what I have said in recent postings  -- Jim's integrity is not for sale.  He will say what he believes.  He is committed to this country, and is willing to challenge the shibboleths of politics.  He wants to see positive change, and knows you will not get that by demonizing others.  He will criticize policies, and tell you why.

Let me offer one quote that might give a sense of how deep his understanding is:

No mater that the country club whites had always held the key to the Big House, or that many of them had done well at the expense of disadvantaged whites and blacks alike.  No matter that the biggest race riots tooks place outside the South, in the Promised Land where balcks were stillb eing held down by policies, many of them unwritten, which precluded them from assimilating into the American mainstream."

I can remember being told by an African American coworker in New York who had grown up in Alabama that he could never fully trust me because I was Northern white who had no idea, and that he could only fully trust a Southern poor white who had outgrown the prejudice that had been used by the rich whites to divide and conquer, and that those rich whites had included the absentee Northern owners of much of the wealth of the South.  reading Jim's book I have been reminded of that.



apologizing for the bad html (teacherken - 4/29/2006 5:12:44 PM)
the quote ends after "mainstream" and the rest are my words.  Why I should use preview.  Sorry.


You rock, Ken! (Lowell - 4/29/2006 6:05:30 PM)
And once again, your words inspire me.  Thanks.


Miller troll tactics (Info_Tech_Guy - 4/29/2006 2:50:53 PM)
I'm seeing the Miller trolls on Daily Kos and here http://mydd.com/comments/2006/4/28/18132/8019/19#19 making the same Harris Miller accusation that Webb isn't a true Democrat.

Hasn't Miller's work at the ITAA made him work for Republican policies? Unless people consider offshoring American jobs a "Democratic Party" position?



I've met Eric. (summercat - 4/29/2006 6:02:50 PM)
He's got the fire--and enormous energy for organizing, which he uses very well.  And he has had tremendous support from the Wes Clark community as the Fighting Dems movement has developed.


I've met him too and Eric is great (Lowell - 4/29/2006 6:04:49 PM)
He would be a HUGE improvement on the current representation in New York's 29th District, and that is NOT meant as a back-handed compliment in any way.  Eric Massa is superb.


Quasi-Republican? (Teddy - 4/29/2006 7:44:59 PM)
What the heck is that supposed to mean? I was a committed Republican for 64 years, an independent for about 9, and turned my coat about 2 years ago and became a Democrat as a conscious, deliberate decision.  I tend to believe that a conscious decision to be a Democrat beats any other kind. You know what they say about converts ("more Catholic than the Pope"), so whoever comes up with quai-Republican doesn't know what he/she is talking about.

Actually, if there is a closet Republican in this race it is labor-hating, outsourcing magician Harris Miller.



Quasi-Republican? (Rick O'Dell - 4/29/2006 9:03:23 PM)
What the heck does that mean?  Same sentiment here Teddy and thus the rationale for my earlier post.

You make a good point.  In my view choosing to be a Democrat just makes Webb, Massa, and their ilk all the more important to the Party.  Supporting Harris Miller because he isn't Jim Webb is a herd mentality more at home in the Repbulican Party.

The Democratic Party is the party of choice in more ways than one.  Those who choose to join us should be welcomed. 



Eric Can Win, So Can Jim Webb! (Howard Park - 4/29/2006 9:20:16 PM)
This is my first post here.  This really is a great blog.  Lowell you have built something truly important.

For now I'll just echo the positive comments of ya'll.  I'm sure you have heard about the recent poll that puts Eric Massa in a statistical dead heat againsy Kuhl, who has massive negatives (50 -- negative, only 39% positive).  The netroots were what sustained the Massa campaign through some pretty lean times.  To find out more about Eric go to www.massaforcongress.com

Jim Webb has come under fire (not the first time!) from some Democratic perfectionists.  I can't spend as much time as I'd like responding to some of them.  The bottom line is that George Allen is running against John McCain, Jim Webb is running against George Allen and the NOVA Tech Lobbyist is running against Jim Webb.



Excellent first comment, Howard! (Lowell - 4/29/2006 9:36:43 PM)
Please come back and comment/post often.  Also, I appreciate your kind words about Raising Kaine.  Hopefully, we'll be able to do more good stuff going forward.  Meanwhile, go Jim Webb, and go Eric Massa!


Bienvenidos, Howard! (Debby - 4/30/2006 8:20:35 AM)
Thanks for visiting and posting.  You're too modest to say that you, along with a few others, have been very instrumental in getting Eric through those lean months.  What a great job you've all done.

Debby



I Grew Up There! (Luna - 4/30/2006 1:43:26 PM)
Phelps, New York, a teeny little map dot in Ontario County.

It's an extremely conservative district... but people are getting pissed, and they want a change.

I think Eric Massa has a real solid chance out there. My stepdad, a staunch conservative, plans to vote for him.