It's the end of the world as we know it, and I feel FINE!Not Larry Sabato, Ben Tribbett, today announced that he is conducting a poll on Webb v. Miller.
In yesterday's open thread one person noted that they received a phone call doing a poll, and asked if we had done it.The answer is Yes.
Our first poll was in the field yesterday (we are skipping today) and will be completed by Tuesday or Wednesday of this week.
That's right, a BLOG is conducting a poll.
Please understand, that this is an earthquake. This is the end of the political world as we know it. Consider the many millions of dollars spent on polls by campaigns and polling companies. If blogs can poll and use their own data for research, this is a revolution of unprecedented proportions in Virginia political history.
If this works out as it seems to be so far, we will be able to poll races in Virginia that our readers are interested in.
If Ben Tribbett can do this, he becomes this generation's Gutenberg. Blogs are for everyone, anyone can blog. If Blogs can poll, does that mean that ANYONE AND EVERYONE can poll?
If everyone can poll, who needs a pollster? Think about the power that will accrue to blogs. Think about the effect this will have on the livelihoods of the professional campaign losers who currently infest the Democratic party.
I want my own poll and I want it now!
I have a feeling, I won't be alone.
For Ben to be polling a race that a lot of pollsters wouldn't bother to do could really going to shake up Virginia's political landscape.
I mentioned in a post on my own blog that the only thing that could end the Democratic primary before June 13th would be a head-to-head Miller versus Webbb poll that showed one of them so far out of competition that continuing would just be silly.
So let's wait and see if Ben Tribbett really does manage to turn the world upside down. I hope he pulls it off!
Second - there are many blogs, Raising Kaine among them, who can and do conduct online polls. So I'd say that the concept of blogs doing polls isn't revolutionary by any means, just the non-online version.
Which leads to the third and most important point here...
The statistical validity of such polls. I know enough about statistics to say that it's an incredibly complex mathematical science and the mere ability to make phone calls (or any other means of communication) does not provide validity or accuracy. I don't mean to imply anything negative about Ben's poll because I don't know what's behind it. But I'm positive that if the blog world was set loose with polling we'd end up with a lot of crap.
I'd also love to see the world of polling open up. But if it's not based on sound statistical principles it will rarely be anywhere close to accurate. And even worse, it will become the tool of every blogger who will provide false validation for whatever they wish to spew - I know, happens now with the political spinsters and manipulators, but at least it's limited at the moment.