Virginia's Primary Election Day, June 14, is fast approaching. After that, the general election season will kick off big time, and it is at that point that we Virginia Democrats are going to need the help of our party's heavy hitters. Not to get too specific or anything, but here are the results from the February 10, 2004 Virginia Democratic primary:
John Kerry: 52%
John Edwards: 27%
Wes Clark: 9%
Howard Dean: 7%
Al Sharpton: 3%
Dennis Kucinich: 1%
And here are the results from the April 1992 Virginia Democratic caucuses:
Bill Clinton: 52%
Uncommitted: 36%
Jerry Brown: 12%
Finally, here's the final order of finish from the March 1988 Virginia primary:
Jesse Jackson: 45%
Al Gore: 22%
Mike Dukakis: 22%
Dick Gephardt: 4%
Paul Simon: 2%
Gary Hart: 2%
Bruce Babbitt: 1%
Can all of these people assist Tim Kaine? Probably not. However, several of these folks jump out at me as potentially very helpful. Let's start with Bill "Big Dog" Clinton. Can this guy fire up the Democratic base or what? In particular, African Americans love Bill Clinton. For that reason, I would be very surprised - and disappointed - not to see Bill Clinton in Virginia come September/October, revving up turnout in the African American community.
Another advantage to Bill Clinton is that he is far less controversial than Al Sharpton or even Jesse Jackson. Sure, we'll take those two guys' help in the African American community, but even better would be freshman Democratic superstar Senator Barack Obama. If Obama wants to come to Virginia to help out Tim Kaine in the African American community -- and for that matter, in EVERY community -- we would welcome him with open arms. Barack Obama? Bring him on!!
Not to get into too long a discussion here, but before we completely leave the Clintons, how about Hillary Clinton to rev up the Democratic base as well? The danger with Hillary, of course, is that she could also energize the right-wing as well, but with her new best friend Newt Gingrich, who knows?
What about John Kerry? Would he help Tim Kaine in the general election? In my view, it's unlikely. Sure, Kerry is a good man who won the Virginia primary, but that was after it was "all over but the shouting" and after Mark Warner had endorsed him. Frankly, I doubt Kerry could do anything that Bill Clinton, Barack Obama, and possibly Hillary Clinton couldn't do.
Governor Howard Dean? It seems to me that his main role is to activate his passionate supporters -- the so-called "Deaniacs" -- in favor of Kaine. Besides that, Dean's main role in this election likely will be to make sure, as chairman of the Democratic National Committee (DNC), that Tim Kaine receives the party support he needs.
Who else might be of assistance? Two names spring to mind: John Edwards and Wesley Clark. Both of these men had significant support in Virginia, much higher than their primary election totals might indicate (since Kerry had all but clinched the nomination by then).
In my opinion, John Edwards could definitely help Tim Kaine in southwestern and southern Virginia, especially given the fact that Edwards is from our neighbor, North Carolina. Edwards speaks the language of that part of Virginia, with a populist, "two Americas" economic appeal combined with a strong cultural famliarity and comfort level. In addition, based on the primary election results, Edwards is popular across Virginia, from Roanoke to Richmond, from Chesapeake to Charlottesville, and from Abingdon to Arlington. The bottom line is that John Edwards can help Tim Kaine across Virginia, and I hope we see a lot of him this summer and fall.
Wes Clark is another Democrat who could significantly help Tim Kaine. Clark's strong military background -- he is a retired four-star general -- would undoubtedly be popular in Northern Virginia, with its heavy military population centered around the Pentagon and numerous defense contractors. And, of course, Clark would have an appeal in the Hampton Roads area, with its 300,000+ Navy, Marine Corps, military-employed civilians, and their families.. Let's get Wes Clark out here to Virginia, early and often!
The last Democrat I'll mention for the time being -- not to say that there aren't others who could be of great help to Tim Kaine in this election -- is the 800-pound gorilla in the room, Governor Mark Warner. More than any other Democrat, Warner's influence will be critical in this campaign, given the fact that he is extremely popular in Virginia, not just among Democrats but also among Republicans. Warner even fares well among Republicans, with about even numbers approving and disapproving of his performance. And, let's face it, Tim Kaine is de facto running for Mark Warner's second term, as his trusty second-in-command the past four years. Want a second Mark Warner term? Vote Tim Kaine!
So, bring on Mark Warner, early and often, along with the other Democratic "heavy hitters" mentioned above. When these guys are all through with Jerry "The Duck" Kilgore and Scott "Slime Master" Howell, they won't know what hit them.