The 11th Congressional District stretches from inside the Beltway south to Dale City and Woodbridge along the I-95 corridor, and west to Gainesville on the I-66 corridor. Not unlike many Congressional Districts in our great country, the 11th looks more like an inkblot than any conceivable shape. A large portion of Fairfax County, including Fairfax City, Springfield, and Burke are covered along with a large portion of Prince William County. Despite Northern Virginia generally being Democratic, 11th District voters have elected Republican Tom Davis in six straight Congressional elections. The district even went for George W. Bush in 2004, 49.9% to 49.3%, although Gore won by 2.5 points in 2000 (though the district had a different make-up at the time).
Democratic gubernatorial candidates have had a little better luck in the 11th in recent years. Mark Warner and Tim Kaine won here in 2001: Warner by 11.7 points and Tim Kaine by 8.6 points. In 2005, Kaine won the 11th by 13.2 points and the more liberal Leslie Byrne won by 9.5 points.
In 2004, while John Kerry lost narrowly in the 11th, Democrat Ken Longmyer was easily defeated by Tom Davis by 22 points. Interestingly, Longmyer lost in 2004 by almost equal numbers in Fairfax County, Fairfax City, and Prince William County. Meanwhile, Kerry won Fairfax County and Fairfax City, while being defeated easily in the more conservative Prince William part of the district. However, Longmyer's campaign was significantly underfunded in 2004, most local Democratic volunteers were focused on Kerry, and the heavily military-related population in the 11th was still reeling over 9/11.
Longmyer is running again this year for the Democratic nomination. However, this time around he has a strong primary challenger in Andrew Hurst. While both men are good people and good representatives of the Democratic Party, Andrew Hurst is young, aggressive, smart, and seems to have that +óGé¼+ôsomething special+óGé¼-¥ that only comes around rarely in the world of politics.
When you meet Andrew Hurst, you see the best American politics has to offer. Hurst is affable, optimistic, and confident. He has a spark that makes him instantly likeable to others around him. His +óGé¼+ô11 weeks in the 11th+óGé¼-¥program is in week 6, and his campaign has knocked on well over 2,000 doors in that time (many by Hurst himself). An attorney by profession, Hurst has professed dismay over career politicians like Davis who are more concerned with getting re-elected than serving the public and solving problems. Hurst also has a top-notch campaign manager in James Walkinshaw.
The man that Longmyer and Hurst hope to defeat, Tom Davis, has become the type of candidate who can vote very conservative and get away with it by crafting his image to appear moderate. Davis avoids discussion or scrutiny on controversial issues, and has not faced any major backlash over his right-wing voting record.
In recent years, Tom Davis has followed a disturbing political trend whereby Republicans vote to increase government intrusion into the personal lives and freedoms of Americans. Since 9/11, Davis has supported a Constitutional Amendment to ban flag burning and has voted against amendments to the Patriot Act that would stop the federal government from being able to search our library records. Davis voted for Terri+óGé¼Gäós Law, which enabled politicians to meddle into the Schiavo family's +óGé¼GÇ£ and ALL our families +óGé¼GÇ£ most personal and important decisions. Davis voted against amendments to stop the Department of Justice from arresting patients (including the terminally ill) who were prescribed medical marijuana in states where voters had approved its legalization. Not only does Davis support state laws that require parental consent in obtaining an abortion, he even voted to prevent minors from traveling to another state to get an abortion without parental consent.
Who won't Tom Davis meddle with you ask? The 2% of Americans eligible for the estate tax, for starters. And while Tom Davis will stand up for tax cuts for wealthy families, you won+óGé¼Gäót get the same courtesy if you aren+óGé¼Gäót living with seven or eight figures to your name. In 2005, Davis voted to restrict bankruptcy filings for lower income families. This legislation, rather than targeting more affluent people who qualify for Chapter 13 bankruptcy, focused on the poor and middle class who file under Chapter 7 (which forgives debts for people who cannot pay). Davis beat up on average Americans even more just before Christmas, when he voted for the Budget Reconciliation Bill that cut $40 billion in entitlement programs for the poor and the elderly. This is the same bill that passed the Senate only when Dick Cheney broke the tie.
Tom Davis has sailed into office for six straight terms without anyone effectively calling him out on his record. Voters are tired of career politicians presenting no solutions to the War in Iraq, rising health care costs and gas prices. Davis even voted against raising CAFE standards and incentives for alternative fuels in August of 2001, one month before 15 terrorists from Saudi Arabia attacked America.
Andrew Hurst is right: The system is broken and Tom Davis won+óGé¼Gäót fix it. It is time for some new representation. The question is whether we can alert the voters in time to what Tom Davis has been doing as a wolf in sheep's clothing.
I believe that if Andrew Hurst wins the primary, the Democrats can take back this seat. The #1 reason is that Northern Virginia is trending Democratic (particularly Prince William County). Tim Kaine proved that in 2005. What's needed is a vibrant candidate who generates excitement and provides voters with more than the standard, boiler-plate Democratic alternative. That's why Andy +óGé¼+ôSomething Different, Something Better+óGé¼-¥ Hurst has generated a strong grassroots following. Hurst can win people over with his straight-talking style; his incredible energy and drive. Hurst aims to convince every voter he meets to believe in him, and if anyone can succeed at this, Andy will.
The problem, as usual, is money and visibility. Tom Davis can raise as much money as he wants to distract voters from his support of all the Bush policies that got us into the mess we are in now. Andrew Hurst needs money, but he also needs exposure. He+óGé¼Gäós actually been campaigning since the summer of 2005, which is smart. He has begun to make a name for himself. With Bush+óGé¼Gäós approval ratings at an all-time low and the state of military at a low-point, the largely Democratic voters of the 11th CD may be looking for a strong alternative to Davis and the whole +óGé¼+ôculture of corruption+óGé¼-¥ in Washington, DC. Hurst could be a winner, but it is up to all of us to make it happen.
If you want to see the real Tom Davis' voting record, visit Project Vote Smart.
This myth of moderation is what has kept Davis safe for so long. We have to pop that bubble.
From http://www.truthinlabeling.org/
Know anyone with food allergies (Peanuts, Eggs, Dairy, etc)? Let them know...
Example: Since Wolf took office in 1981 the National Debt has grown from $930 Billion (with a "B") which was 33% of the GDP to around $8 Trillion (with a "T") which is more than 63% of the GDP. (http://mediamatters.org/items/200505190008)
When Davis entered Congress the National Debt was $4.4 Trillion or 66.3% of GDP (Clinton managed to reduce the debt to 57.3% when he left office, I wonder what happened since then???).
I hope they develop a strategy beyond tying Tom Davis to the Republican Majority, however. That strategy has been tried again and again and it doesn't work up there. Tying Davis to the crazies is a recipe for disaster, IMO. And now that Tom DeLay is leaving, it will be harder.
I think the campaign is on the right track as far as tactics though; they seem to really believe in field work as the best way to communicate with voters and introduce Hurst to them. Kudos to the campaign manager.
It seems to me that in an area as dynamic and wealthy as NoVA, some top-rate organizing and coalition-building could bring on
My suggestion: get in touch with Kaine voters and include Kaine's winning message in the pitch for Hurst. Fairfax went for Kaine, but barely went for Bush. Kaine's message clearly resonated with voters there. Maybe say: "Let's keep moving Virginia forward, and give Kaine some help on the federal level. Elect Hurst for Congress!" Maybe that's a poor phrasing, but in general I think that a link between Kaine and Hurst could be fruitful in terms of messaging.
That said, using Kaine's message would be a definite plus, along with highlighting just how conservative Davis really is.
It's nice to see those two articles come out at the same time--the one on Prince William County's changing demographics
I hope the Hurst for Congress campaign is listening...
In other words, Tom Davis bears enormous responsibility for all that the Bush administration has done to run this country into the ground -- because Davis failed to do his job, for strictly partisan reasons.
Shame on you, Congressman.
A fresh message is in order, I think. I'm just not sure what that should be.
Maybe a Hurst-Davis contest would just come down to a money race, where whoever can get out the message the most often and the most effectively would win...who knows.
1) Most importantly, remind everyone at every oportunity that a vote for Tom Davis is a vote for George Bush. He may not be the boogeyman himself, be he is known as what they call at Alocholocs Anonymous "an enabler."
2) CULTURE OF CORRUPTION, CULTURE OF CORRUPTION, CULTURE OF CORRUPTION... In with the new, out with the old. Followed closely by...
3) Solutions. Find an important, specific problem facing the 11th district (*cough* GRIDLOCK *cough*) and come up with simple, effective answers. Easier said than done, I know, but his campaign will have to be more than "Im-not-Tom-Davis" as you rightly point out.
4) Be sincere. Hurst sounds like a great guy, a true progressive, so this shouldnt be tough. IMO progressives need to shout their beliefs all the louder, not hide from them and cower in the "center." While I dont think centrist politics are bad per se, someone like Andrew Hurst isnt one and he shouldnt pretend to be. The 11th isnt exactly "Utah Red" ...
5) Mark Warner and especially Tim Kaine did quite well in NOVA. Bring them out. Shake hands. Do fundraisers. Get them to help in whatever way they can. They are assests that should be utilized.
6) Keep doing what he's doing. From what I hear he's been hitting the streets and making the rounds. It sounds like he's of to a great start and I hope he will be rewarded for his efforts.
My $0.02
Bush's Fumbles Spur New Talk of Oversight on Hill By Dana Milbank
"Democrats on [Tom Davis's House Government Reform] committee said the panel issued 1,052 subpoenas to probe alleged misconduct by the Clinton administration and the Democratic Party between 1997 and 2002, at a cost of more than $35 million. By contrast, the committee under Davis has issued three subpoenas to the Bush administration, two to the Energy Department over nuclear waste disposal at Yucca Mountain, and one last week to the Defense Department over Katrina documents."
See any discrepancy in oversight there?
Sean K.Comments
The Grocery Manufacturers Association has orchestrated, and the U.S. House of Representative on March 8, 2006 has passed, H.R.4167, which will wipe out State food labeling laws that exceed Federal standards, and prohibit any new State or Municipal legislation that exceeds Federal standards. Thus, we will have less regulation and less labeling; eliminating critical State and Municipal laws that protect consumer health, and reducing all standards to the minimal standards promulgated by the Federal government.
Yep, I definitely agree that Hurst for Congress is one of the hottest tickets this election cycle in Virginia. They seem to really have things well-organized up there in NoVA.
lots of money and eventually, lots of votes.
and increased chances for Democratic inroads.
But my greatest fear is that simply linking Davis to the "culture of corruption" will not be enough to bring him down. Maybe specifically linking him to Bush would do the trick...but I think Davis has successfully fended off previous attempts to link him to the truly nutty crowd of Republicans.
-Alec