Or is that a prediction?

can Miller win?

He has no other chance. He's just a placeholder candidate, so he must attack and win by default.

I'd like to understand your thinking on that.

In Virginia Beach, Chesapeake, Suffolk, and parts of Norfolk.  The problem may be that if he continues without much minority support, he may run into trouble with Portsmouth, Hampton, and Newport News.  They usually have high turnouts.

I think you'll get a good indication in a few days when the first quarter reports are released.  If Webb missed his $300k target and Miller has more than $300k on hand, one could begin to question the strength of the Webb netroots strategy with only about 60 days to go.  The opposite is likewise a predictor.

I also don't as readily discount Miller's chances to beat Allen as do most bloggers I've read.  This is quite a volatile year, Allen is off balance, and it appears that Miller actually enjoys campaigning and is willing to go at it seven days a week all over the state.  I also think that, should Miller win the primary, that Warner, Kaine, Beyer, Robb and all the gang (as well as some national Dems) will go all out to get the seat, whereas I can't really say I see the same enthusiasm from John Warner and others for Allen.

In any event, Webb or Miller, I don't see the fall being boring.  With Allen's crowd of cronies, I see a very nasty fall that makes Kilgore's crowd look like the churhlady.

First quarter reports mean nothing.  Jim Webb will never outraise Harris Miller.  Harris is a multi-millionaire.  No matter how much Webb raises, Harris can always put more of his own in.  Harris Miller has rich friends, and had the luck of a Mark Warner fundraiser.  Harris will outraise Webb by a whole lot, no doubt about it.

As for John Warner:

John Warner has no respect for Harris Miller.  He will campaign with Allen hard to take him out.

Jim Webb, however, is a different story.  John Warner asked Jim Webb to run against Ollie North in a primary back in 1994.  He respects Webb, and has said so.  Sure, he'll endorse Allen, but will he campaign hard against Webb?  A lot less likely.

I wouldn't discount them.

However, it's worth noting that Webb will receive national money while Miller will not.

But take them with a grain of salt.  Miller had a month's head start, has very rich friends, and had a Mark Warner fundraiser.  Miller will crush Webb in the fundraising department.

The head start and the democratic connections are big...plus the self-financing.

The key questoin is this:

Does James Webb have enough money to run his race in the primary?

The answer is yes.

This issue here, as posed by VC, is whether Miller can "steal" this one.  Yes he can.  And, with only 60 days to go, the first quarter money is a solid, but not solitary, indicator -- no matter any other disclaimers.  You either have it now to gain momentum or you don't.  The numbers are the numbers, and every candidate knows this and should have planned accordingly.

There are obviously strong feelings separating the Webb and Miller groups, but campaign realities have no emotions. First level fundraising is the first level indicator of the strength and probability of a campaign.

My predictions:

1.  Webb gets close but misses his $300K target.
$225K raised; $165 on hand

2.  Miller raises less than hyped
$450k raised; $300 on hand

My political "nose" senses this from watching the two campaigns lately and also reading a few blogs:  Miller's folks are quiet about money and Webb's folks are already defensive about money.  It will be interesting to revisit some of the posts from February once we know the facts.

I suspect we'll see the spin game in full gear here shortly.

$300k on hand, especially since he's tossing in $1 of his own money for every $2 raised, right? Plus, how much did the Mark Warner fundraiser rake in?  What will be interesting to see is how many contributors each candidate had, what was the average level of giving, and WHERE the donations came from.  Lots of us can't wait to pour over Miller's contributions.

because to add that $1 of his money, he still had to dial and dial and visit and visit to get the first $2.  And we all know from prior campaigns that most of the early money is not max-out level, except for close friends and some family.  Plus, he has run a higher overhead in the early days than Webb.  And I don't put as much ummmph in the fundriaser attended by Mark Warner as most folks do.  $50k - $100K absolute max.

I'm more interested at this point in seeing whether the netroots provided the anticipated financial support for Webb.  It appears that the WesPac play produced only about $10k for a total via all ActBlue sources of only $50k.  But other sources are unknown at the moment.  This will be most interesting.

I still predict results that won't be devastating either way, but will trigger massive spin within the community.