The Pew Research Center today released a study, "Beyond Red vs. Blue,", which looks at the US political landscape in minute detail and reaches some fascinating conclusions. First, though, I recommend that you take the Typology Questionnaire and find out where you fit. It's fun and fast to find out whether you're a "social conservative," "pro-government conservative," "conservative Democrat," "liberal," or something else ("bystander?" "disaffected?"). What I found particularly interesting about the Pew Study is its finding that "red" and "blue" are not monolithic groups by any stretch of the imagination. Quite the contrary, there are major divisions within each political party over the role of government, religion, cultural values, health care, aid to the poor, and environmental protection.
Also interesting is the fact that the three Republican-oriented groups make up only 29% of the population, compared to 41% for the three Democratic groups. So how do Republicans win so many elections in this country? Simple. According to Pew, "the imbalance shifts to the GOP's favor when the inclinations of the two major groups in the center are taken into account,? many of whom lean Republican." In other words, Republicans nationally have been doing a better job of capturing the "swing voters" in recent years. That's one trend Mark Warner managed to turn around here in Virginia four years ago -- an accomplishment that Tim Kaine aims to replicate in 2005.
So which categories do the Virginia gubernatorial candidates fit into? I went ahead and filled in the Typology Questionnaire with answers based on candidates' records and stated positions, and here's what I came up with:
1) Jerry Kilgore is an "Enterpriser:" "...anti-regulation and pro-business; very little support for government help to the poor; strong belief that individuals are responsible for their own well being. Conservative on social issues such as gay marriage, but not much more religious than the nation as a whole. Very satisfied with personal financial situation." This group is overwhelmingly white (91%) and male (76%). "Enterprisers" make up 9% of the American public.
2) Tim Kaine is an "Upbeat:" "Very favorable views of government performance and responsiveness defines the group, along with similarly positive outlook on the role of business in society...mixed views on foreign policy Religious, but decidedly moderate in views about social and cultural issues." This group has the highest proportion of Catholics (30%) and is mostly white (87%). "Upbeats" make up 11% of the American population.
3) George Fitch is a combination of "Enterpriser" and "Social Conservative." Similar to Jerry Kilgore, although significantly more pro-environment (interestingly, environmental protection is one of the main schisms within the Republican Party as identified by Pew). Fitch also appears to be more fiscally conservative and possibly more anti-immigrant, based on his public statements, than Jerry Kilgore.
4) Russ Potts is an "Enterpriser" with "Upbeat" leanings. In other words, Potts falls somewhere between Jerry Kilgore and Tim Kaine on the political spectrum, although closer to Kilgore overall. Which makes sense, given that he's running as an "Independent Republican."
One observation that jumps out here is the fact that NONE of the candidates in this year's Virginia gubernatorial race appear to be true "liberals," "social conservatives," or "conservative Democrats." For those categories, you have to look at the Lt. Governor and Attorney General races. There, you'll find true liberals like Viola Baskerville and Leslie Byrne, true social conservatives like Bob McDonnell, and true conservative Democrats like Phil Puckett.
In other words, if you're looking for a classic "Blue" vs. "Red" battle here in Virginia, don't look to the governor's matchup so much as to the "down ticket" races. And if you're confused about who best matches up with your values, you might want to take Pew's Political Typology Questionnaire and then see which candidate is the best fit for you. The results probably won't surprise you, but you won't know unless you play!
PS I know this will shock RaisingKaine's faithful readers, but I tested out as a liberal. Gasp! Yeah, I told you this would be shocking news! :)