A new Zogby poll released today on the Wall Street Journal website, gives incumbent senator and former Virginia governor George Allen a mere 7.2 percentage point lead over Democrat Jim Webb. A similar poll in January had Allen leading by 11 percentage points.
Since announcing his candidacy on March 3, Jim Webb has consistently outperformed expectations; garnering overwhelming support from the online activist base, the netroots, winning local strawpolls, and gaining national television attention.
While poll results are well outside of the poll's 3.2% margin of error, any Senator polling at under 50% is generally considered to be vulnerable. In this case, that's almost certain, considering that Jim Webb has been actively challenging Allen for less than a month and has spent essentially no money to promote his candidacy.
Webb faces former IT Industry Association President, Harris Miller, for the Virginia Democratic Party nomination. Harris Miller trails nearly 12 percentage points behind Allen in the Zogby poll.
The Democratic primary will take place on June 13; the General Election November 7, 2006.
[UPDATE: George Allen is beatable. There's no doubt about it. The only thing he's got going for him, frankly, is money. Lots of it. If you want to beat George Allen, you need to do two things. #1: Do everything you can to make sure Jim Webb is the Democratic nominee. #2 Help equalize the money difference by giving generously to the Webb campaign, right now if possible. Thanks. - Lowell]
[UPDATE: This just in from a press release from the Webb Campaign: Webb spokesperson Kristian Denny Todd said that ?to be within 7 points of George Allen three weeks after entering the race is another sign that Virginians are responding to Jim Webb?s message. The people of Virginia know that George Allen is just a rubber stamp for George W. Bush.? Todd added that it is a ?demonstration of the momentum Jim is building and of the buzz and excitement surrounding his campaign. Virginians want a full-time Senator, and Jim Webb has the leadership and experience desperately needed in the Senate.? - Josh]
You have a chance to make a big difference.
Beware Of Online Polls
There are a bunch of new poll numbers circulating in a bunch of states, thanks to the release of the latest online polls Zogby Int'l conducts for the Wall Street Journal's web site. We don't publish or acknowledge the existence of these numbers in any of our outlets because we are just not comfortable that online panels are reliable indicators.
It's a very new technology and we applaud Zogby for trying because some mix of phone calls, door-to-door and online will be used to create reliable polls in the future. Zogby is uniquely situated for the future, in fact, as he regularly conducts door-to-door surveys via his int'l arm, so he's gaining crucial experience when he moves toward using all three technologies for the same survey. (Note: Zogby does do a few calls in each state he polls online, but, frankly, it's not enough calls.)
But, to date, his online poll results are not just quirky, in some cases they don't make any sense. BTW, we have the same policy on Rasmussen (who uses automated callers) as well as his numbers sometimes show movement where none should have occurred. Until the track records of these surveys are proven over a long period of time, we'll continue to ignore these poll results when conducting our own analysis.
Finally, and here's the clincher for why we look at both Zogby online and Rasmussen with such a jaundiced eye: if either method of polling (online panels or automated callers) were consistently reliable, wouldn't professional campaign pollsters be using it? It's certainly cheaper [CHUCK TODD]
It's even more significant. George Allen's career is based on the rise of the radical "Conservative Movement". His rise to the Governor's Mansion also heralded the takeover of both the RPV and the Virginia House by extreme right-wing zealots like Dick Black and Bob Marshall. The obstructionists in the House who are seeking to derail Tim Kaine's responsible policies are all riding on George Allen's coattails.
Moreover, George Allen is the highest ranking member of ALEC. ALEC is a nationwide anti-labor, anti-environement, anti-regulation organization that works to allow corporate interests to write regulations for overworked legislators.
There is no greater example of a Theocon / Corporate con, and neocon-enabler, than the Junior Senator from Virginia. His ouster would be a benchmark in the annals of the receeding "conservative movement".
If one can't donate, one's spouse still can...and their children etc...or anyone else for that matter.
On donor tracking websites, I have seen several donors that live in the same house. This has enabled candidates to receive much more than the $2000 individual-donor-per-election-cycle limit from each household.
(e.g. My wife will be making seperate donations from me.)
If you live alone I don't know what to do.
(Please correct me if I am wrong.)
I sought clarification on this last year for myself and mistakenly believed I could not contribute. Unless you are THE contractor and directly (not indirectly as in someone who works for a company that has a government contract) you cannot contribute.
Reading your story I believe you CAN contribute.
A litte more consise statement:
Essentially unless you yourself (or the company you run) have a government contract then you can contribute.
Individuals are only "federal contractors" if they have a direct contract with a government agency, i.e. consultants. Employees of corporations that have government contracts are not "contrators" in any legal sense.
The FEC brochure which covers this is available at this link.
A lot of hard work (& money) is needed to change the numbers in Webb's favor.
I'll do my part, and you?