I, myself, was quite distraught. Now I didn?t quite agree that Warner was guilty of cronyism over a few rumors and talking points from the Miller Campaign, but the second I heard of Mark Warner possibly getting involved, I realized that it had (potentially) disastrous results: it could tear a hole in the Democratic Party not easily repaired. I have been a ?Warner for President? guy since 2001. I knew when Warner was elected Governor that we had something really special. He only proved me right again and again, and I felt honored to have volunteered for the guy. Then, when his coattails helped bring Kaine to the Governor?s Mansion, plus create an increase in the House and Senate for Democrats, I was certain that I was looking at the next Bill Clinton.
Then came the rumors. Rumors that Warner was going to publicly support Miller. Rumors that Mark Warner was about to make the biggest mistake of his political career.
Now, it?s no secret to anybody that I?m a big James Webb fan. I not only think he could challenge George Allen, but I think he could win. I also believe that Harris Miller would be lucky to get within ten percentage points. Again, this is all opinion. However, I live in Virginia Beach, and at my church on Sunday people came to me and talked about the Letter to the Editor I wrote for the Virginian-Pilot. One veteran, a life-long Republican, told me that, ?Regardless of party, Jim Webb is a good man. I?ll be voting for him.? This, as you can guess, made my day. When I ask these people about Harris Miller, they say ?Who?? and move on.
This also made me think about Mark Warner. He was the obvious pick for Dems in 2008, as far as I was concerned. And yet, I was worried for his political safety during this primary. Even though he claims he will not support either candidate until after the primary, the fact remains that he has only done fundraisers for Miller, and actions speak louder than words. Let?s say that Warner stays as he is (with just the fundraiser for Miller), or even comes out and supports Miller.
We have two options from there: Miller wins or loses the primary. If Miller loses, Warner loses a lot of credibility in a state he is supposed to ?dominate? politically. His work for Webb in the fall would be a lot less credible, seeing as Webb would appear to be his ?second choice.? In the end, Warner looks a lot less appealing for Democrats on the National Scene for losing control of the party in his own state.
Let?s say, however, that Miller wins the primary. Mark Warner, who even now simply ?appears? to be supporting Miller, is claimed responsible for the win. He shows how dominant he is in Virginia Politics, yet angers many bloggers. If you read the blogs, you?ll find a majority of us appear to support Webb over Miller. If Miller then loses to George Allen (which I find probable), then the activist community will turn on Mark Warner. They?ll blame him for taking away our only real shot at Allen. And as Dean proved, activists can?t win a primary for you, but they can give you an extra boost, which is all Warner may need.
Am I saying Mark Warner is wrong for supporting Miller? If that?s who he truly supports, then that?s who he should vote for in June. The former Governor needs to understand, however, that there?s a difference between supporting privately and endorsing publicly. If he publicly supports one candidate and not the other, as he has with Miller so far at fundraisers, then it?s just as good as an endorsement, and I fear that Governor Warner endorsing Harris Miller would inevitably lead to bad things.
Warner has put himself in a tricky situation. So, how does he remedy the situation? The solution is, of course, relatively easy. Jim Webb is trying to raise $300,000 in three weeks. This is an ideal time for Warner to step in. Mark Warner can remain neutral by doing for Webb what he has done for Miller; attend a fundraiser. He can also remind Miller?s people that he is not endorsing Miller in a primary. Miller can?t go around saying ?Mark Warner has been very encouraging??can he? I mean, that sounds a little like endorsing to me. If Warner wants to prove to the online community that he?s neutral, he may want to privately ask Miller?s campaign to drop that bit.
If Harris Miller wins this primary on his own accord, then more power to him, and I?ll have a bumper sticker on my car with his name on it. However, if Harris Miller wins on other people?s merits, then we will not be able to defeat George Allen, and activist Democrats will never forgive Mark Warner for not helping Webb have his chance. It?s that simple. I will be voting for Mark Warner in the 2008 primary, regardless of what happens in this year. My only hope is that I will be joined by the same grassroots activists who support James Webb right now. These activists who realized that Mark Warner stayed neutral, and did what was best for Virginia, and the United States. The ball is in Warner?s court, he can either run the easy lay-up or throw up a brick. I?m praying for a lay-up?
?and a fundraiser.
Update:
I guess it?s time to eat some crow:
I apologize for this post. It wasn?t necessary. It probably did more damage than anything else.
I?m a huge Warner fan. I had no intention of attacking or insulting, but apparently I have.
This was a mistake, and a big one at that. I take back everything I said in this post. I may be nervous for Warner, but he?s been in tight spots before and come out unharmed. I guess I?ll just have to trust him again.
I?m sorry for this post, and I take full responsiblity for this. It was a pointless rant from a nervous guy. Hopefully everyone will forgive me and I?ll be able to write again.
If not why all this controversy over Warner's neutrality? Why would Warner (if in fact he is) put so much stock in him?
I want everyone to say after me, "You are not the entire makeup of the Democratic Party of Virginia."
Now repeat about fifty billion times. OK?
I am so tired of people slamming every person who may (or may not) be backing Miller. Like if Warner comes out in support of Harris Miller there goes his presidency. Bull. Voters in Iowa and New Hampshire don't care one iota about who Mark Warner backed in 2006. And neither will grassroots supporters in California, Mississippi, New York and other states who are attracted to the dark horse candidate with the centrist message.
How can you possibly try to say that you know what will happen in the future if Miller wins the primary "on other people's merits" and then loses to Allen? First off, I'd love to have you explain what makes Miller different in trying to get as many endorsements as possible. Thats something that you SHOULD do. Second, you know that every activist in Virginia is just going to throw their hands up in the air and forget being active in the presidential election?
Oh okay, they'll just start working for Biden or Clinton right? I mean, why would Virginians want to work for a guy who just appeared on the cover of the New York Times magazine? Who could possibly win a southern state? Who is their very popular ex-governor?
Oh thats right, they'd love to see him win. Is there any possible way you could sound more ridiculous?
This sounds like a bunch of 13 year olds and their fan-boy club, getting pissy every time their guy is perceived to be slighted.
Attack the Gen. who came out way to early with the "Women Can't Fight" article. Attack Con. Moran for halfway supporting Miller cause his mattress is loaded with Miller's money. But don't attack Warner. And definetely don't make some sort of all encompassing prediction that activists in the state won't be behind Warner if he doesn't wind up backing Webb.
You are not the entire makeup of the Democratic Party of Virginia. You are not the entire makeup of the Democratic Party of Virginia.
Now repeat.
I don't think Warner has put that much stock in Miller...at least no more than Webb. I believe him when he says he's neutral. But remember, in politics, it's not about the actual truth, but the image to the public.
I'LL SUPPORT MARK WARNER'S DECISION NO MATTER WHAT. But, if you remember MANY blogs after the rumors started, not everybody will. We bloggers have a larger and larger say in Virginia politics thanks to our ability to reach out to activists. This whole post wasn't a plea for Webb's sake, but for Warner's. He's our best chance for 2008, and I don't want anybody speaking poorly about him. Dean went froma nobody to front runner for most of the campaign thanks to activists. Kerry had a better primary staff and won, which proves that activists can't do it all for you. But having their support can't hurt. I don't think Dean is tied to the activists in any way. He chooses to say what he does, and many activists like it. I don't.
(btw - Warner NEEDS that 5-10% jump, dude. He polls pretty low in most straw-polls save South Carolina. Hillary pretty much dominates the scene, and a victory over Allen may be pretty important to Warner beating her. If Warner can help bring down Allen, he proves that what he did in Virginia was lasting. If not, he loses some momentum, which he'll need lots of).
I think that if Warner does nothing else during the primary, he will be seen (rightly) as being neutral. That's probably where the political safeground lies.
I like Webb, and I like you guys, but damned if you aren't in a tisy every time you see something as a slight to Webb. The attack by the Miller camp over the 30 year old article demanded that kind of indignation; this does not. Cool your jets and let Warner do what Warner will do. If you repect the guy, trust him to do what is right. I haven't been let down.
(btw - this in no way hurts Warner's presidential cred. Allen is seen (conventional wisdom) as undefeatable. If Warner helps in the general, and knocks off Allen, he jumps 5-10% in the Democratic polls. If not, he doesn't fall off the radar, cause, hey, this is Virginia; no one expects a win in the Senate)
Again, I believe I specifically pointed out that he shouldn't back Webb. He shouldn't back EITHER, hence the title of the article. It is my opinion that the safest political move for Warner would be to stay out. Unfortunately, he already did that fundraiser for Miller (I believe him when he said he agreed to it when Miller was alone). Maybe the best way to look neutral is to do the same for Webb. That's all I'm saying.
Jon Sheridan: There's a difference between Harris and Tim when it comes to "working with others merits." Tim Kaine was DIRECTLY INVOLVED with Warner's plans as Lt. Governor. Kaine worked side-by-side with Warner through all his initiatives. In my mind, that gives him rights to some of that merit, as Tim Kaine was an integral part of Mark Warner's success. Harris Miller wants to run on Mark Warner and Tim Kaine's success without being a part of it. He wants to step in and say he'll be like them without any evidence of it. THAT'S what I think will hurt against Allen. Kaine had a claim to the Warner success in 2005. What claim does Miller have to it in 2006. That's my fear.
And I agree that Warner is in a very difficult situation. The least he could do is appear to be fair.
And as Dean proved, they can actually lock you into a path that guaranties defeat.
Because a politician who is too tied to activists are guided by their very very narrow desires and appeals, and lack wide appeal.
If you want proof, go look at Dean's poll numbers.
"if Harris Miller wins on other people’s merits, then we will not be able to defeat George Allen"
If my memory serves me correctly . . .
. . . oh yes, how could one forget all that direct mail we got last year from the Kaine campaign? You know, all the ones with Mark Warner on them! Oh, and those Warner Robo-calls, Warner stumping, Warner radio, Warner tv . . .
It would be interesting to do a count on how many times Kaine said, "Warner", in his stump speech.
Now what was that about wining "on other people's merits"?
I am perfectly content with the understanding that Mark Warner was tere for a friend as a friend. That does not bother me in the least.
If Warner were going around trying to pressure Webb to drop out of the primary, then your contention that Warner is acting to control instead of support the party here would be correct. But it seems to me that he is taking a hands-off approach to the primary, and if I'm not mistaken, the fundraiser for Miller was conducted before Webb announced he was running.
My point is that the netroots comunity is getting all worked up about rumour and allowing themselves to hurt Warner because he isn't doing exactly what we want. Personally, I think any candidate who runs around like a marionette is destined to fail. He is the politician, and he has surprised us before.
Let us not forget that in 2003 almost all of Warner's initiatives failed. Everyone thought he put his career on the line with the local tax increase ballot initiative, and when that went down in flames, some thought his career was over. But Warner didn't stop. He pirouetted, and came back strong, and actually got the Virginia House and Senate to do the right thing and be responsible government!!
Warner took defeat and turned it into victory. Do not forget that.
I recommend that you call and email Mark Warner's office and kindly and politely suggest that he do a fundraiser for Webb and perhaps do a joint appearance with both Webb and Miller and tell Virginia that there are two great men to choose from to take out George Allen. And then also kindly call Webb's office and ask him to talk to Mark about the same thing.
That's likely the best thing you can do instead of being the usual netroots "If I don't get what I want, I'm going to be a disnechanted voter come November, grumble grumble".
Your contention is serious, I know, and I do not mock it lightly. But the last thing you want to do is join in a stampede against Warner or our Democratic nominees.
Mark Warner is Virginia's most successful Democrat, he's served us well and I hope he will carry the standard of the Democratic party in 2008. The Webb campaign has no beef with Mark Warner and it's wrong of RK to even indirectly imply that it does.
RK supports Progressive values and the Democratic Party is the natural home for those values. If there are internal tensions around the need for political unity, we work together and come out together because we're stronger together.
Democrats are stronger and more united than ever in recent memory. As the Republicans implode, it will take all of our united strength to take them down for the good of the nation. We need good Democrats like Warner, Kaine, Webb and Miller to help lead that charge.
If Miller isn't our nominee for the Senate this year, I'll be there to support him when in the future he runs again. I hope he will.
We are all on the same side. Give Dannyboy some credit, he is trying to articulate is ideas of how things should be going down.
I personal apologize for my part in it.
But now I must direct my wrath towards: DINOS?
What the fuck? Do you know what sort of mentality the use of that phrase reveals?
I hope you jest, that you are not one of those DFA people who want to replicate the liberal version of what those conservative wackjobs have accomplished.
You know, because trying to govern from the hard fringes of your party has worked so well for them, and the country, right?
Sorry, I know I just said we are all on the same side, but if anyone ever calls me a DINO . . .
Because I don't adhere to some sort of abstract party line liberal purity. Goodness, next thing we know we will be having Stalinist purges of the party ranks: swear loyalty to Howard Dean or die!
I'll say this for the last time, I'LL SUPPORT MARK WARNER NO MATTER WHAT!
This wasn't meant to speak for the Webb campaign, nor to imply Warner has done anything wrong. It was merely a suggestion!
I was just trying to let an opinion out, that's all. However, if this post really angers everybody, I'll be happy to ask Lowell to take it off. Remember, I'm just trying to help Warner make a decision, and if it's not helping, there's no need for it.
I apologize for this post. It wasn't necessary. It probably did more damage than anything else.
I'm a huge Warner fan. I had no intention of attacking or insulting, but apparently I have.
This was a mistake, and a big one at that. I take back everything I said in this post. I may be nervous for Warner, but he's been in tight spots before and come out unharmed. I guess I'll just have to trust him again.
I'm sorry for this post, and I take full responsiblity for this. It was a pointless rant from a nervous guy. Hopefully everyone will forgive me and I'll be able to write again.
I agree that he probably could come off as more neutral if he did a fundraiser for Webb (or match the money raised by the Miller fundraiser with funds from his Move Forward PAC since he can't use that money for a presidential bid. Ideally, probably the best idea to ensure 'fairness'). I just don't think that it is necessary for him to do so. If he says he is neutral and only did a fundraiser because he promised before there was a primary contest, well, I believe him and I think the voters will believe Mr 70%.
Helping out Webb would be nice, and probably 'fair', but it is not necessary for Warner to be able to wash his hands of the primary. Let's all just stay on the ball and get rid of Cowboy George Jr.
Sorry Jon, this should have been a separate statement from the rest of my comment. This was meant as a general statement for all Web support not a direct opinion about the post.
While I do believe this post went a little overboard, it's not what I would consider bashing. I can see where people might get a feeling that Warner is playing favoritism toward Miller; but, as previously argued by others, Warner has claimed neutrality and he has given no reason for me to question his sincerity in that. I agree with Lowell, you should not apologize for your opinions.
Yeah, and my mom also told me that the kids on the bus only made fun of me because they liked me.
Don't hide behind that Democracy curtain . . . I think that it is well know in these circles, we are in a Democracy.
We are talking about issues of personal responsibility. Saying, "hey dude its a free country", makes you sound like one of those stupid Young R's who are putting up the Muhammad cartons everywhere.
And don't hide behind, you should be tough enough to be called names:
If someone called you a bitch, I am sure you wouldn't be too happy about, no matter how secure you where in the fact that you where not a bitch.
No mater how you spin it DINO is a derogatory phrase, it is meant to ostracize and cast suspicion on those who do not meet some sort of litmus test of a small minority (hence, a self-appointed elite).
Granted, politics is rough stuff, but as a party we are supposed to not eat one another alive.
The mentality that spouts of DINO, is by its very nature cannibalistic.
"DINO means your views match those of the majority of Republicans."
I wonder is Webb a DINO? Was Howard Dean DINO when he sold his state out to the power utilities?
But most importantly I am wondering why on earth would anyone go through all the trouble to be D when really they where an R?
Maybe they are just closeted, they can't handle the social recrimination? Or, maybe, just maybe there is some issue that is the most important issue to them, that is a tenet of the Democratic party.
PS: I take your apology as a friend and hope to God Lowell that you have learnt your lesson..we don't have to dance to the same tune all the time to win elections.
I will keep my calm in the future.
But, I feel strongly about this DINO thing, simply because I used to be endless amused (and hopeful) at the reactionary and self-destructive nature of the rightwing wakos.
I love how in their quest to rid their party of the supposed RINO's, and appeal exclusively to their base; they have made it impossible for them to actually govern.
You need no more evidence than our very own House of Representatives
I saw this as a good thing for the progressive cause.
And feel that the rising progressive tide must be based on a Warner like politics as an antidote to the win at any cost partisan politics of the Republicans.
So, I hit the goddamn roof when I saw the progressive incarnation of this self-destructive tendency.
As far as Dan is concerned, he is one of the best young Democrats in Virginia - dedicated, passionate, hard-working, you name it. Obviously, he loves James Webb and he loves Mark Warner. I see nothing here to indicate anything but concern on Dan's part for the best interests of both men. Frankly, I think that some here have simply misread what Dan wrote. Dan should be proud of who he is and what he wrote, and not apologize for it. That's just my opinion, for what it's worth. Others obviously can disagree -that's why we're Democrats, after all! :)
We are all on the same side. Give Dannyboy some credit, he is trying to articulate is ideas of how things should be going down.
I personal appologize for my part in it.
But now I must direct my wrath towards: DINOS?
What the fuck? Do you know what sort of mentality the use of that phrase reveas?
I hope you jest, that you are not one of those DFA people who want to replicate the liberal version of what those conservative wackjobs have acoplished.
You know because trying to govern from the hard fringes of your party has worked so well for them and the country, right?
Sorry, I know I just said we are all on the same side, but if anyone ever calls me a DINO . . .
Because I dont adhere to some sort of abstract party line liberal purity. Goodness next thing we know we will be having Stalinist purgess of the party ranks.
Webb grew up in SW and I know he'll be travelling in your neighborhood.
1. Robb didn't lose because of Jim Webb. He lost because of scandals of drugs and infidelity. I mean, he got caught in a hotel room with Miss Virginia. He also was outspent 3 to 1. He also didn't start campaigning until August. THAT'S why Robb lost. True, he'd be better than Allen, but Webb had very little to do with Robb's loss.
2. Good point. I still think favoring either side would be dangerous, but that's just me.
3. If you want to know more, Webb just blogged on Daily Kos. You should go read it, it was VERY informative.
4. Leslie Byrne, a strong feminist, supports him and believes he respects women. If she trusts him, I'll trust him.
Tim Kaine is nobody's "boy". And, the voters of Virginia got him into office.
'Nuff said.
Oh, and Webb IS going to beat Allen...you just watch! :)
BOTTOM LINE: STOP TRASHING MARK WARNER, A MAN WHO IS THE BEST HOPE OF THE DEMOCRATIC PARTY IN 2008 OVER SOMETHING SO PETTY AS THIS. BOTH MEN ARE GOING TO LOSE. I'D LOVE FOR JIM WEBB TO BE A SENATOR BUT ITS NOT HAPPENING, ITS NOT REALITY. THIS IS NOT THE FIRST TIME THAT RK HAS TRASHED WARNER OVER THIS. LET'S REMIND THESE FOLKS WHO GOT THEIR BOY TIM KAINE IN OFFICE.
If we're all Democrats, then we need to honestly air our opinions with the full intent of supporting the candidate who wins the primary. Personnally, I haven't made up my mind between Miller and Webb, although I'm leaning Webb mainly because of the blog support. I just want to send George Allen home.
It would go a long way to convincing me to support him, if the candidate would commit to an event in far Southwest Virginia (no further east than Abingdon) What are the chances?
I firmly believe that Mark Warner greatly increased his chances of winning state office when (as Chairman of the Party) he visited every jurisdiction in the state, starting in Lee County. While this probably isn't possible in the midst of a primary campaign, the candidate must get beyond Roanoke.
Seriously, though, I really think people misread what you wrote as somehow being critical of Warner when in fact it was more an expression of your support. By the way, I'm a big Warner supporter myself, and am just trying to decide if it should be Clark/Warner or Warner/Clark in 2008.