One of the worst kept secrets in Virginia these days is that George Allen is thinking about running for President in 2008. Why else would he be fundraising in New Hampshire, of all places, except for the minor fact that the Granite State hosts the nation's first Presidential primary and will be critical to winning the Republican nomination? As political scientist Robert Holsworth of Virginia Commonwealth University explains, Allen's trip to New Hampshire sends the message, "when you're mentioning possible candidates it's, 'Count me in.'" Just this past Sunday, Rev. Pat Robertson said on ABC's "This Week" that Allen was "a very attractive guy" who would make a "tremendous" President. (Robertson also said that federal judges were worse than Nazi Germany, but that's another story).
Also this week, the prestigious "National Journal Insider's Poll" of 2008 Republican presidential contenders had George Allen #1, with 229 points, ahead of John McCain with 217 points and Bill Frist with 184 points. Interestingly, the same poll ranked Virginia Governor Mark Warner #3, with 179 points, among Democratic 2008 Presidential contenders. Warner finished behind Hillary Rodham Clinton (407 points) and John Edwards (205 points), but well ahead of John Kerry (90 points), Bill Richardson (85 points), and Wesley Clark (35 points).
In other words, terrifying as it may seem, the race for the White House is already off and running in May 2005. And two of Virginia's top politicians -- George Allen and Mark Warner -- appear to be leading contenders. Before that happens, of course, these two guys may have a big-time showdown next year for U.S. Senate. If so, that race undoubtedly will be extremely competitive, extremely costly, and extremely nasty. For both Warner and Allen, what happens in 2006 will have big implications for 2008.
But even before we get to 2006 or 2008, we've got the 2005 election cycle to worry about. And this is where the Kaine-Kilgore race take on national significance. Not that the race isn't important in and of itself, but let's face it, if Kaine wins this November, it helps Mark Warner. If Jerry Kilgore wins, it helps his friend George Allen. The situation is very complicated, of course, but in our opinion it boils down to that.
Imagine, for a moment, Mark Warner running for President against George Allen in 2008 with Tim Kaine as Governor of Virginia. Now imagine the Warner-Allen matchup with Jerry Kilgore in charge. Which scenario looks better for Mark Warner and which one for George Allen? Let's examine this for a minute.
If Tim Kaine wins this November, this means at least three things for Mark Warner. First, it will represent a significant feather in his cap, demonstrating the popularity of the Warner/Kaine policies, and also highlighting Warner's political power in helping his Lieutenant get elected. Second, it will prove that the Mark Warner/Tim Kaine model can work in a southern "Red State" like Virginia, and wasn't just a fluke in 2001. This would undoubtedly represent a major selling point for national Democrats, who badly want to win back the White House in 2008. Finally, a Kaine victory this November would put Virginia in friendly hands for both 2006 and 2008, helping Mark Warner (and hurting George Allen) in either the Senate or Presidential contests.
The fact that the 2005 Kaine-Kilgore race is highly significant beyond Virginia is not lost on big donors, who are pouring money into the state like there's no tomorrow. And the fact is, many of these donors, particularly those forking over thousands of dollars to Jerry Kilgore, are from outside Virginia. Very interesting, but why?.
Think of it from the donor's perspective, whether they are from a big pharmaceutical, big oil, or big coal company. Jerry Kilgore is a political ally and protege of George Allen, and also a close friend of Eric Cantor (R, VA-7), the powerful Chief Deputy Majority Whip in the Republican-controlled US House of Representatives. Electing Jerry Kilgore governor of Virginia in 2005 helps George Allen, Eric Cantor, and powerful Republican interest groups in general. Electing Tim Kaine throws a signficant monkey wrench into their well-laid plans.
The bottom line is this: if you think George Allen would make a great President in 2008, then by all means vote for Jerry Kilgore in November 2005. If, on the other hand, you badly want to stop George Allen in 2008 (and possibly 2006 as well), you need to help make sure Tim Kaine is victorious in 2005. The stakes are that high. Go Kaine!