According to today's article by Dan Balz in the Washington Post, Democrats are looking for a "Historic Shift in Governors' Races" this year. According to Balz:
Republicans face a potential upheaval in the states this November, with Democrats positioned to capture a majority of the governorships for the first time since 1990 and seize an early advantage in the 2008 presidential contest.
Balz notes that "[h]istorically, shifts in power in the 50 capitals have held long-term implications for both parties, and control of statehouses can give parties tangible organizational advantages during presidential elections." Currently, Republicans hold a slim lead, 28-22, in governorships. This November, 36 states are up for grabs, with the Republicans defending 22 states and the Democrats 14 states. Even better (if you're a Democrat): "[o]f the nine states where the incumbent governor is either term-limited or retiring, eight are held by Republicans."
Democrats have several excellent opportunities in "blue" states (New York, Maryland, Massachusetts), but what I'd really like to see is some gains in the suposedly "red"/"purple" states like Ohio (the scandal-ridden Republican Party there is in near meltdown) and even Florida (Jeb Bush is retiring). For those of you who think these governorships aren't that important, I would remind you of the difference in Virginia between Jim Gilmore (fiscal disaster and partisanship) and Mark Warner (amazing success story). I would also remind you of how differently our state might be faring right now if Jerry W. Kilgore had won the 2005 election instead of Tim Kaine. Can we say "gridlock," in more ways than one?
Finally, I would remind you all that control of the Florida governor's mansion (and legislature) in 2000 made a big difference - maybe ALL the difference - in (s)electing George Dubya Bush as President. In 2008, I'd feel a lot better with Democrats in control of Ohio and Florida - just to pick two states completely randomly - than Republicans. I'd also like to see voter verified audit trails, but that's another story. Now that Virginia is in good hands under Tim Kaine, let's do what we can to help out our neighbors (or near-neighbors) in Maryland and Ohio. Let's also help to make sure that Pennsylvania stays in safe hands. You never know, but something tells me that election night 2008 could very well come down to results in 2 or 3 states again, including Ohio, Pennsylvania and Florida most likely. We need to make sure that what happened in 2000 and 2004 doesn't happen in 2008, lest we be stuck with 4 more years of the Republican "culture of corruption" and incompetence in Washington DC.
[UPDATE: Another Washington Post article, this one by Michael Shear and Rosalind Helderman, points out that the battle for America is centered increasingly on suburbia and catering to the "suburban sensibility." That means "less about bedroom issues and more about education, health care, transportation and gangs." Less about bedroom issues, huh? Looks like the Bob Marshalls and Scott Lingamfelters of the world had better watch out, because somebody like Bruce Roemmelt (and Mark Herring) might be gaining on them. Heh.]