Rasmussen: Virginia Governor's Race Is Wide Open

By: aznew
Published On: 12/8/2008 4:45:10 PM

(Cross-posted to Blue Commonwealth.)

Well, a Rasmussen poll released today provided exactly zero clarity in the Governor's race.

According to Rasmussen, Moran beats McDonnell 41-37 head-to-head, (5% favor another candidate, 16% are undecided), while Deeds and McDonnell run even, 39-39 -- there's a shocker -- with 4% preferring another candidate and 18% undecided.

McAuliffe, meanwhile, trails McDonnell 41-36.

But when we get to the favorable/unfavorable, it gets a little strange, and there is some surprising data on a couple of issues, including strong approval for Tim Kaine

(More on the flip)  
Favorable/Unfavorables were as follows:

Deeds:

37% - Favorable (11% very favorable)
24% - Unfavorable
38% - No opinion

Moran:

33% - Favorable (11% very favorable)
31% - Unfavorable
36% - No opinion

McAuliffe

36% - Favorable (11% very favorable)
34% - Unfavorable
30% - No opinion

McDonnell

49% - Favorable (18% very favorable)
19% - Unfavorable
32% - No opinion

This sheds little light on the Democratic race, and while I'm not much of a poll reader, it does suggest to me that McDonnell is benefitting so far from the Democrat's contested primary, in the sense that he is getting a free ride while Deeds, Moran and McAuliffe appear to be driving up one another's negatives.

As for Tim Kaine, 58% say he is doing a good or excellent job as governor, while 15% rate him as "poor." In mid-October, that stood at 53-18.

Again, in my own amateurish poll reading, I suspect Kaine has benefited from some of the light reflected on him by his association with Barack Obama.

Finally, on the issue of whether Virginians would support a tax increase to fund the following, Rasmussen said:

State universities:
Yes - 29%
No - 56%

Additional law enforcement:
Yes - 31%
No - 47%

Health Care for the elderly:

Yes - 47%
No - 39%
Undecided - 14%

Rasmussen said we were "evenly divided on higher taxes to fund road and bridge maintenance."

There's more in the Rasmussen release, which can be found here.

Comments



The TRUTH will nuke McDonnell (Bill O. Rights - 12/8/2008 5:28:40 PM)
I think, once voters are reminded of, and told about the hap-hazard way, McDonnell has treated the Virginia Constitution, he is done!   His advocacy and then ignoring the unconstitutionality of HB3202 (Regional taxing authorites) was shameful and is proof enough that this guy should not be Governor.  

McDonnell has also turned his head the other way, with irregularities in the State Board of Elections.  And he has been running his "Bobby for Governor" campaign at the taxpayers expense, from his taxpayer funded office as Attorney General.  

The Truth will Nuke Bob McDonnell!  

Seems that all the Democrat (whomever that will be) has to do is show up!



No clarity? (Marc Abanto - 12/8/2008 6:13:33 PM)
As someone who proudly supports and works for Brian Moran, I think you are missing the real headline on this Raz poll.

The poll provides plenty of clarity on the race for Governor.  Delegate Moran is 4 points ahead of McDonnell, Creigh Deeds is still tied with McDonnell four years later, and Terry McCauliffe is 5 points behind.

In its early stages, Brian Moran is the only Democrat to have a lead over Bob McDonnell



But then you get to the favorables (aznew - 12/8/2008 6:49:33 PM)
and they say something else.

The only real consistency is that about a third of voters have not formed an opinion yet.

Actually, Brian Moran's unfavorables kind of surprised me.

Anyway, I stand by my assertion that this poll provides no clarity.



Moran's unfavorables . . . (JPTERP - 12/9/2008 4:32:50 PM)
not too surprising.  He'll have to contend with the "Northern Virginia liberal" label.  It's interesting though that he's able to get a minor boost above Deeds.

Frankly the biggest surprise is McDonnell's 49 percent favorables.  Apparently if a politician kisses Robertson and Falwell's ring, there's a segment of the population that will forgive pretty much everything.  Turnout is going to be key in November, because I'm sure the fundamentalists will show up for one of their own.



Let's not get too excited (TheGreenMiles - 12/8/2008 7:13:01 PM)
The margin of error in this poll is a ridiculously high 4.5%, which makes the head-to-head matchups and the Dem favorable/unfavorables essentially statistical ties. Plus, the last line in the Rasmussen release calls it a "national" survey -- oops.


Ouch -- good catch, Miles (aznew - 12/8/2008 7:42:27 PM)
but just in case anyone doesn't realize (obviously, Miles does) that boilerplate that was attached to the release by mistake.


Two lessons here (Kindler - 12/8/2008 9:54:13 PM)
There are really only two takeaways from this survey:

-  The Democratic race is wide open.

-  Meanwhile, the race between D and R looks highly competitive at this early stage. McDonnell is in good shape and will be a tough competitor.  His favorable to unfavorable rating is surprisingly good.  (Is it 'cuz of that news anchor hair?)

I must respectfully disagree with the fellow who said that all the Democratic nominee has to do "is show up".  McDonnell strikes me as a much more polished politician than the Republican bozos who've gone down to defeat in recent years -- Kilgore, Allen, Gilmore, etc.  We should take nothing for granted.



McDonnell is still weak (Bill O. Rights - 12/9/2008 7:25:14 AM)
I stand by my assertion that McDonnell is done.  First, we really should see the questions to the poll.  Most Virginian's aren't even thinking about the Governor's race, and the fit, hasn't hit the shan yet.  My point is, without the Conservatives, you don't get elected in Virginia.  Kilgore lost them with his many RINO stands, one of them and most blatantly being "regional taxing authorities" as a solution to every problem the state couldn't handle.  McDonnell not only supported them, hell he negotiated them between parties and local government lobby's.  He is the evil mastermind behind the UNCONSTITUTIONAL, ILLEGAL GOVERNMENT scheme that came out of Richmond in the form of HB3202.

Conservatives from all sides will vote ABM (anybody but McDonnell) after they are reminded.

As pointed out by others, there is a third of people who show no preference and the error rate of 4.5% is underestimated, in my opinion.

I think the "negatives" for McDonnell are far higher and go way deeper than any poll has measured.

Again, my point is, when the truth comes out about how McDonnell was the promoter of the illegal, unconstitutional regional governments, how he has used his taxpayer funded office to run for Governor, his failure to address the problems in the State Board of Elections and a myriad of other problems, the CONSERVATIVES WILL TURN THEIR BACKS ON HIM.  

I was being flip in saying "all the Democrat has to do is show up", but its not far from the truth, given McDonnell's track record.