The first shots were fired by the Moran camp as they released a collection of press clippings highlighting the icy reaction McAuliffe's overtures to candidacy raised in the Virginia political press. Moran's moves are just the starting gun.
McAuliffe uuber-spokesman Mo Elithee hit with the classic "curiously negative" attack:
"Brian Moran and his campaign have been spending a curiously large amount of time focused on someone who's not even a declared candidate for governor yet and their tone has been surprisingly negative..."
BANG!
In response Moran's Ferguson rolled out the "Why do you hate Obama" defense:
"This is the same thing they tried to use on Senator Obama," Ferguson said. "When the press raises questions about their qualifications, they try to blame the other candidate. We didn't compare Terry McAuliffe to Sarah Palin, columnists and opinion writers did."
Meanwhile, as the two camps work each other over like prizefighters, Creigh Deeds is sitting back, clearly hoping to split the difference.
Craig reports that Creigh Deeds "took a softer approach, welcoming McAuliffe into the race." Well, yeah.McAuliffe is no threat to Deeds. But he's a disaster for Moran. McAuliffe and Moran will be fighting over the same primary votes, while Deeds can work on getting a plurality. Terry McAuliffe may be the best thing to happen for Creigh Deeds in a while.
So, the stage is set. Terry and Brian are all set to get bloody, while Deeds takes the highroad to a plurality and the nomination. Game on!
UPDATE: It's worth noting that in 2005 Chap Peterson and Leslie Byrne were expected to cancel each other out, leaving the Lt. Gov nomination to Phil Puckett. It didn't turn out that way. NoVA stalwart Leslie Byrne became the nominee.
I hoping that the primary will eventually be civil, and that everyone would acknowledge that any of those 3 would be better than McDonnell. With the mud-slinging already beginning and the GOP not having to go through a primary, it doesn't bode well for us for the Fall.
We need someone who can win a majority in the primary; Creigh may be the best (who knows yet?), but a plurality victory could be cannon fodder for the Repubs.
One need look no further than the primaries this year, or to the primary that resulted in the Webb victory. In both those cases the final candidates became much stronger because of the primary experience.
Also, primaries get all of the skeletons out of the closet early, and the candidates learn how to deal with them. This leaves GOP much less able to spring one of those surprises late in the election.
This third guy might siphon off as many votes as Gail for rails Parker.
Though I would be tempted to see what would happen if we put Glenda "Gail for Rail" Parker in charge.
Puckett was/is pro-life and that was probably a killer among many Dem primary voters in 2005. OTOH, he probably would've beaten Bolling in the election.
Has Leslie Byrne actually won a general election since 1992?
Finally -- I suspect a primary battle will go largely ignored unless someone goes nuclear (I suspect McAuliffe).
We must also consider the GOP crossover voters who might be 5-10% of the turnout in a odd-year primary (given the lack of a real race on the GOP side.)
Some crossover voters vote for the opposing party's worst candidate (I think they'll pick McAuliffe here so they can run against Clinton in the fall) while others vote for the candidate they think they can live with (Deeds probably gets the majority of these).
I suspect this might've been why Miller won most of downstate VA while Webb carried Northern VA in 2006. IMO, Miller would've lost by low double digits (although Macaca might've made it high single digits.)
The biggest shame of this race is that as much as I like Leslie, had we nominated Chap to be our LG candidate, we probably have a primary race between Lt. Gov. Petersen and Attorney General Deeds. Same might be true if we had nominated Puckett. Wasted opportunity, and one that might cost us the governor's mansion in 2009.
I am sure the Republicans are sitting back soaking all this up, this with them only having one real candidate for Governor, and here we are with 3 (or can I say 2) and one just sitting back to watch to see what these 2 are going to do.
If I were a betting person, I money would be on Moran.