January 28th:
http://www.raisingkaine.com/showComment.do?commentId=81285
and
February 12th:
http://www.raisingkaine.com/showComment.do?commentId=84434
I still stand behind these statements and analysis. In short, I'm not one to "drink the cool-aid" but the 5th CD is the 5th CD (warts and all) and Tom can no more disassociate himself from his family, the advantages he had growing up, or where he came from than I could (or sometimes would like to). I think Tom did a good job of weaving his narrative into the vision he has for the 5th CD. The heavy support of out-of-state contributions was/is a problem, but a good problem to have. He will have to work to reduce the imbalance of out-of-state/NOVA money to in-district/ROVA contributions. The power of incumbency will help this.
As noted in point 4 of my post on January 28th, the scandal(s) didn't quite happen that way, but I do feel that being connected to something that you rail against so strongly, no matter how loosly connected, played a roll in southside against Virgil. More importantly, and unfortunately for those that are being hit the hardest by the economic meltdown, the economic collapse hit at the right time for Tom as well as Obama.
February 14th:
http://www.raisingkaine.com/showComment.do?commentId=84994
Again, I still stand behind this post, but the one thing that I want to point out is the part about Pell Grants and Student Loans. As a whole, due to the Credit Crisis and Economic Meltdown, the availibility of money to go to college is directly impacting middle class families in the 5th, and everywhere for that matter, along with a continued bleak job market in southside Virginia. This weighed on voters minds when they went to the polls. Also, the Republican brand and the banner of incumbency worked against Virgil. The economy hitting the white conservative voter in the wallet or putting them out on the street worked to change their political baraometer on the issues that directly affected them.
April 7th:
Virginia's 2nd, 10th, and 11th are the best prospect to pick-up seats. Another reason why the 5th is about a 10-20% chance at a pick-up this year, Democrats at the national level wrote off CDs like this one years ago and did nothing to cultivate and counter the ideological GGG message (and now Illegal Aliens) in rural America.
I was off with the 10th CD, but in looking at the 4th CD, Randy Forbes should be a little worried. Even though his opponent ran much farther back than him, she still got over 135,000 votes and Obama won the 4th and came out ahead in Chesapeake. The 4th CD should be moving up the target list for 2010 if they can find a solid candidate. I digress, so... back to the 5th CD.
May 14th:
As for Congressional District propsects in Virginia, there is reason for hope, but history is the best indicator of success. My rankings for pick-ups, from most likely to least likely with the current candidates, are as follows: VA 11, VA 2, VA 10, VA 5, VA 7, VA 4, VA 6, VA 1.
The most likely pick-ups will be VA 11, 2, & 10. It falls off fast after these. The rest, some really amazing things would have to happen. Just because ther was high turnout during the VA Presidential Primary doesn't mean that will translate into a VA tidalwave in all parts of the stata. Mark Warner will win, Obama will be very competative, Northern Virginia turn-out, Hampton Roads and Richmond and how they vote will be key, but once you get past the Golden Cresent, the conventional thinking doesn't hold. The down ballot Congressional races will get a bump, but it will be up to the individual campaigns to define the incumbants and most don't have the money or resources to do that. The point I am trying to make, the General Election will be a very different animal than what is going on right now. Lots of things will change betweeen now and November. Keep it all in perspective.
Again, I was off by one. Again, good job Tom! As for the rest of the post, it pretty much happened the way it was written.
July 7th:
http://www.raisingkaine.com/showComment.do?commentId=100192
Virgil showed us just how out of touch he really is. Eventhough he claims that it was not his Hummer, it still had his campaign signs all over it. In my opinion, this was the beginning of the end for Virgil.
And the rest is history. A lot of small things, and a few big things, came together at just the right time for Tom to pull off this win. Now the challenge is holding on to this district.
On a previous post, it was said that Virgil's support was soft throughout the 5th DC. I'm going to disagree with that statement to a degree. While he has had widespread support that appeared an inch deep, it was actually deeper than that. It was 2.5 inches. But, more importantly some of his support faded from farmers who employ lots of hispanic migrants. Also, it was the economy. When you change parties and throw your lot with folks that bang the drum of fiscal discipline, and end up being worse than those tax and spend liberals, well that sticks to you like gum on the bottom of your shoe. Just like in 1992, the power of incumbency went over like a lead ballon. Just like the Danville Register and Bee said in their editorial endorsement of Tom, "We didn't leave Virgil, Virgil left us."
I'm going to go out on a limb and say that it would be unlikely that Virgil will run again. He has been in elected office since 1973 and time is not on his side. So, with this in mind I have a few names in mind that could possible challenge Tom in two years:
Likely
State Senator Steve Newman: he actually lives in the 5th and with dimming hopes of being a viable candidate for statewide office in the next year to four years, this might be his best chance to move up to higher office. He would have a strong base of support with Liberty Univesity and Thomas Road Baptist Church. A large part of these folks live outside of Lynchburg (which is actually in the 6th CD).
State Senator Robert Hurt: he is out of Chatham and Pittsylvania County. He would be a strong candidate, but it all depends on what he wants to do. He now hold former State Senator Charles Hawkins district.
Delegate Rob Bell: out of Albemarle, he could possibly cut into the Democratic plurality in the northern part of the 5th and would do well south of the James.
Delegate Don Merricks: He holds the 9th House District which covers Franklin County. He has only been in office for one term, but again, he would have a solid base of support in Southside.
Less likely
Delegate Cathy Byron: (who actually lives in the 6th CD) represents the southern part of Bedford County and all of Campbell. She would have to move, but it wouldn't be much of a stretch.
Delegate Clarke Hogan: this one is hard to put a finger on but he has some ethics concerns that have been circulating according to some of the other progressive blogs but he would be a strong challenger out of South Boston.
All of these possible candidates depend on the political and economic environment a year from now. It will also depend on how popular President-Elect Obama is a year from now, which is a relative eternity in politics. I would say that at this point, the 5th is a leans Republican to swing District.