We've already looked at the presidential election results in the 42nd (Dave Albo) and 86th (Thomas Davis Rust) House of Delegates districts. In both cases, John McCain got walloped by Barack Obama, implying that these districts' delegates are potentially vulnerable to strong Democratic challengers next year. Now, what about the 40th HoD district of Tim Hugo?
Barack Obama: 16,876 votes (52%)
John McCain: 15,308 votes (48%)
It was close, but in the end Obama prevailed. So, who's going to take on Tim Hugo next year? (last time around, the Democratic nominee was Rex Simmons, who lost 57%-43%).
Note: These figures do not include absentee or provisional ballots. If anything, including those would probably make matters even worse for McCain (and Hugo).
P.S. Obviously, we're not going to get even close to the turnout next year that we got in 2008. All I'm saying here is that districts like Hugo's are POTENTIALLY vulnerable if Democrats run strong candidates. No, this isn't rocket science, but nonetheless I think it's worth reminding people.
Waldo:
http://waldo.jaquith.org/blog/...
We are also looking at 59, with the absolutely horrible Watkins Abbitt. Remember my blog in the next few months/1 year.
Also, it is somewhat deceptive to base this on Perriello v. Goode. Most of the District is Albemarle, which is Tom's home, and he crushed there in part as a favorite son.
In fact, Obama lost the district to McCain (excluding absentees 19,656 (51.6%) -18,456 (48.4%).
That said, Bell typically runs unopposed, and these numbers at a minimum suggest it is worth challenging him.
But it is premature to call this a vulnerable district.
P.S. It is certainly more vulnerable if Creigh Deeds wins the Democratic nomination. Having a local guy running for Governor will get Democrats in the area really pumped.
He REPEATEDLY went back to socialism and taxes and how Obama was evil and would crush IT with taxes. That was NOT the stated intent of the panel, and he repeatedly went back there. It was ridiculous.
I'll see if I can find a transcript/video.
Warner won every single CD in the state.
Obama won all the heavily Democratic ones + 11th, 2nd, 10th and 4th. The 4th really impressed me. Warner also won huge there.
Andrea Miller raised only $48,073 bucks vs Forbes' $637,688. Feder raised $1,930,607 compared to Wolf's $1,877,504.
And yet Andrea Miller was closer to winning.
I think the 4th in prime for pickup. Does anyone know of a candidate who might be able to make that more of a race? Who are our Dems in the district? Help me out local folks.
1. Steve Herretick - who ran a good but impossible race against Quayle for senate.
2. The Petersburg crowd - African American Women mainly. Perhaps some have more name recognition than Andrea Miller, but if she couldn't do it in '08...
3. Laurel Snode - a personal friend of mine and good Dem from Chester that I solidly maintain should run for office.
Overall, however, Forbes is viewed well in his district, just like Wolf in the 10th. Both are more D than say the 7th or 6th (the 10th is more D than the 2nd or 5th) but the incumbent is just too strong. DOESN'T MEAN WE SHOULDN'T PUT UP A FIGHT! I'm a firm believer in always fielding a candidate and think we should have 100 House of Delegates candidates in '09, but that doesn't mean all Dems have a shot at winning. Just giving people the choice, that's what Democracy is about
And he may not be a Goode type but he did worse then Wolf running vs a opponent that didn't run a serious campaign. At the very least we should put up a fight.
How about Roslyn Tyler?