VA-05: "Its all over But the Shouting"

By: faithfull
Published On: 11/7/2008 10:46:48 AM

RacePrecincts InDem% - Rep%Dem votes - Rep VotesVote +-
VA-05100% Perriello 50.09% - Goode 49.85%  158,689 - 157,938Perriello +751

I already jumped the gun on calling this race Tuesday night. For now, I'll just defer to what local and national media is saying about the race for Virginia's fifth Congressional district.

Tom's lead grew yesterday from 30 votes to over 600 votes, and the headlines say it all:
Democratic Central: Perriello's lead is small, but insurmountable [MUST read]

ABC 13: Democrats Claim Victory in 5th District

The Democratic Party of Virginia is congratulating Perriello on his unofficial victory over Goode. We talked to Tom Perriello. His campaign is confident they've won this election, but they know votes are still being counted.

DailyProgress: Has he won?

Virginia's Democratic Party chairman, C. Richard Cranwell, called Perriello around 5 p.m. to congratulate the 34-year-old from Ivy. "I have just called what I consider to be Congress-man-elect Tom Perriello,"

Martinsville Bulletin: Perriello's lead widens in 5th District race

"Bedford is the only major area still out. I looked at the votes from election night, and I don't see how any change" would be enough to overcome Perriello's lead of more than 600 votes, Cranwell said. Provisional and absentee votes are being examined there, Cranwell said. "It doesn't look to me like there's anything that would allow Virgil to capture 700 votes out of Bedford that weren't there election night," he added. He observed that Perriello has been on a "roller coaster" since the polls closed Tuesday night. "As a guy who's been through a lot of elections," Cranwell said of himself, "it looks like it's all over but the shouting."

Tom Perriello:

It looks like we're going to Washington.


Comments



Please, please, please let this be the case!!! (ThatGrrl - 11/7/2008 10:50:41 AM)
All signs sure point to a good outcome.  And that much of a buffer going into the recount really IS almost insurmountable!  Recounts don't change things markedly in Virginia.  If this lead is certified, Goode really is going down!


I am so proud (wahoomatt05 - 11/7/2008 12:39:31 PM)
On this year's ballot I got to vote for 3 candidates who I truly admire and trust: Barack Obama, Mark Warner, and Tom Perriello.  Now all three are heading to Washington, and the two legislators are going to be immediately in the majority and in perfect position to get things done.  


Fingers crossed (Rob - 11/7/2008 10:58:02 AM)


there is no RECOUNT. (lgb30856 - 11/7/2008 12:12:23 PM)
just a retabulation of the votes. aka creigh deeds a few years ago.


Right (Susan Mariner - 11/7/2008 12:33:24 PM)
We call it a recount, but it's not actually a recount in the traditional sense of the word.  

Congratulations, Congressman-elect Perriello!



I'm not so sure.... they changed the law to allow for the new Optical Scanners (Used2Bneutral - 11/7/2008 12:54:23 PM)
it would have been stupid to not be able to recount the new optical scanner ballots where they were used so it was my understanding they changed the law a little to actually recount those at least.... but I'm not sure it affects the VREs (Touch Screen Machines)


There is a recount and a protest (aznew - 11/7/2008 12:25:13 PM)
They are two different things, but given a 600-vote lead, I don't think Virgil could prevail on either.

Standards for a protest are:

i) objections to the eligibility of the contestee based on specific allegations,
(ii) objections to the conduct or results of the election accompanied by specific allegations which, if proven true, would have a probable impact on the outcome of the election, or
(iii) both.

In other words, you can't just say, "Oh, they messed up on provisional ballots," or make a general allegation.

Virgil would have to find 600 ballots for Tom that he could make specific allegations about. He has, I believe, until Dec. 4. I can't see it.

Or, if he has some specific claim about some wrong-doing, he can bring that forward. But we know that didn't occur. You can agree with Tom Perriello on the issues or not, but he is as honest as they come.

I hope Nancy Pelosi gives Tom a nice office.



Great news! (joycegreen - 11/7/2008 12:28:54 PM)
Glad to see that this election is finally going to get rid of Virgil.  Goode Riddance!  Make sure to get everybody out again in 2 years when he tries to take that seat back!  There won't be as many voters at the polls then, so Dems need to make sure to snuff out the voters from the rural districts.  
Hopefully now ThatGrrl can get back to work.  What must Lexis be thinking?


"Goode riddance!" (Arlington Mike - 11/7/2008 1:18:57 PM)
Ha, I like that one!

"Goode bye," too!

Tom will need to work his tail off for these first two years, to avoid being taken out in 2010. He'll be vulnerable, coming from a conservative district, swept in during a wave election, etc.

If I'm him, the first thing I do is hire a very strong constituent services team in the district offices and a very strong communications director in DC. He's going to need to connect with the people, and tell his story back in the district.



Excellent news on DemoCentral (joycegreen - 11/7/2008 12:33:08 PM)
Check this out for an advance view of the Albemarle results:
http://democraticcentral.com/s...


And if anyone knows what they are talking about on this (aznew - 11/7/2008 12:37:00 PM)
it is Lloyd.


Goode to have press conference at 1:30 pm (lgb30856 - 11/7/2008 1:32:07 PM)
we shall see what is up. maybe he will concede??


My guess (Dave N. - 11/7/2008 1:42:57 PM)
is that he's going to announce that he's not going to go down without a fight, even with all of the mounting evidence to the contrary.

It's unfortunate if that happens, because, in essence, the SBE just did a recount, retabulation, whatever you want to call it. The odds of doing an actual "recount" and finding something different are minimal, at best.

Congrats to Congressman-elect Perriello!!



I'm worried (Doug in Mount Vernon - 11/7/2008 1:36:47 PM)
Why does the AP feed from Daily Kos have Virgil up by 98 votes right now?


They updated yesterday afternoon at 5 (faithfull - 11/7/2008 1:53:52 PM)
If they are correct, Tom would have to lose about 1000 votes and Virgil would have to lose about 500 votes from the canvassing today and next week.

AP numbers have been pretty untrustworthy this entire process.



Thanks! (Doug in Mount Vernon - 11/7/2008 1:58:26 PM)
I feel better now....let's hope that means there's hope for Mary Jo Kilroy in Columbus, Darcy Burner in Seattle, and Charlie Brown out in California as well!  Mary Jo was down only by about 130 or so, and Charlie by 700 or so as well, and Darcy was down by 5,000 but only 71% of the vote was counted!

If the AP numbers are off by enough in those contests maybe we'll pull a few out too!



VA has a fantastic resource (faithfull - 11/7/2008 2:02:22 PM)
In our State Board of Elections website. Not all states are so lucky.  


Perriello Lead Now 751 (cycle12 - 11/7/2008 3:20:47 PM)
According to the Va. SBE website available at this link; https://www.voterinfo.sbe.virg...
- as of 1:40 P.M. today (Friday, November 7) Tom Perriello's margin of victory has now expanded to 751 votes.

Come on, Virgil; admit defeat and start cleaning out your offices...

Thanks!

Steve



Does anyone know (JMU Duke - 11/7/2008 3:26:53 PM)
how much a recount or re-tabulation will cost the state?


Too much (DanG - 11/7/2008 3:30:51 PM)
Creigh Deeds couldn't pull 350 votes statewide.  Virgil can't pull 750 out of one district.