...to unseat Virgil Goode.  Just like it wasn't easy to unseat George Allen, even with such a far superior candidate like Jim Webb.  This district has been tied to Virgil Goode for so long.  Yet, Perriello ran an excellent campaign.  We may have to wait awhile, but no matter the result, this race was far closer than anyone ever expected.  

while it is true that the race is "closer" than anyone expected (I mean, who expects a race with 320,000 voters to be decided by a handful of votes), to the extent you are suggesting that Tom winning or coming close to Virgil was something that no one "ever expected," that just is not true.

For one, Tom believed he would win.

For another, there were several of us at RK who saw the path to and conditions for victory for Tom and wrote about it repeatedly.

Now, people who know more about politics and about the VA-05 didn't expect it, and I understand that. I know little about either, and speaking solely for myself, I'll be the first to acknowledge that old saw about even a broken clock being right twice a day.

P.S. I also disagree with your "no matter the result." I understand your point is to compliment Tom and the efforts of his staff, but the result matters a great deal.

Tom is ahead and leading in this race. When the counting is done, the results will show the he has won by a narrow margin.

In fact, I got into heated arguments with people who claimed that he couldn't win the 5th for various reasons.  Let's face it, Tom just has "it," whatever "it" is. Not every politician does, but when you meet someone like Tom, you can see it right away unless you're completely clueless.

a huge surge of African American voters in the 5th CD this year, plus young voters, that would all help Tom.

And look where that got you.... Oh, I guess it did work out that way :)

:)

Remind to get you on my side if I ever run for office!  :-)

This district is a tough one, it was designed to prevent Democrats from winning.  I had friends working their butts off for the campaign who didn't even want to tell me what the poll numbers were a month ago.  I would ask and they would just say "not good".  However, as the whole campaign came into its final swing I could see the groundswell of support for Tom, I could see all the great TV ads he was getting, both from his own campaign and from the national party, and I could see how uninspired the opposition was.  When all the votes have been counted, I am confident Tom will have pulled it off, and yes, it one of the biggest upsets of the entire day.

Tom worked very hard and tirelessly against many odds - mostly the good old boy network of southside that has been the powerbase of this area for too long.  Tom being up only 52 votes right now is fantastic and a bit nerve racking.  Tom is truly one of those people that you meet and you just know that he can and will make a difference.  He's a good listener, a good debater and he knows how to unite.  His getting elected means that the good old boy's influence is dimishing and people are taking back their ability to do what is right, not what is expected of them.  Here's to Tom - You can win this race! I can't even think of him losing because he won't.  He does need our continued support during the next month so that he can get through a recount, etc.  Its not going to be easy when VG has as much influence on the inside as he does.

I'm really hoping that Rick Sincere is correct, regarding the Charlottesville votes not yet included in the district's total.  A little buffer going into the recount (or in this case, a pretty substantial buffer, if that sort of vote span holds) would be a huge help.

Newly reported numbers added 83 to Goode and 61 to Perriello; that's why the lead is back to 30.

If there were ever a time for Charlottesville to come up big for someone, it would be right now. Having a ~500 vote edge going into a recount would be huge for Tom.

I was putting first year students at UVA into vans to go vote all day (I'm a fourth year) from Alderman Road dorms which are in the East Ivy Precinct of Albermarle County and the polling place (the Miller Center) is impossible to get to without a car.  This allowed me to just ask everyone if they had heard about Tom and most of them hadn't so perhaps the convincing of me and my cohorts will end up making a difference.  So damn exciting but nerve-racking.

Perriello now up 814!!!!!

The C'ville numbers were the main addition, though for some reason I don't see it on the changes page of the SBE site.

My bad.

814 plus 542 =   1,356 votes

Here's hoping C-ville coughs up those 542 votes!

The C'ville numbers were updated at 2:05 pm but haven't been added to the changes list, apparently.  Tom went from having 80.1 or percent to 80.99% and Virgil fell from just under 20 to 19 flat.  That's the big change we have needed.

I probably confused people when I said just Brunswick County but that was because it was the first thing on the list of changes page when I refreshed and Tom made gains there.  I then couldn't find any change that would explain the main increase so I glanced at C'ville's numbers and saw they had changed.  Tom now has over 50% of the vote.

I corrected the post as well! :)

peace,
faithfull

I would expect some numbers in our favor out of Albemarle as well.  The numbers for Albemarle haven't been updated since Election Day on the SBE site.  

site is finally showing C'ville's changes.

Looks like there will probably be a few meetings on this in the near future.  Or, at least, one would think there ought to be.  That's an awful lot of incomplete reporting.  Here's hoping they figure out what went wrong and fix it, before the next election.  Whatever went wrong.

There's a good chance precincts will be redrawn - Venable had around 5,500 new registered voters and by law localities have to consider redrawing the lines if one precinct gets 4,000 new registrants.

The changes don't always show what the original total was for some reason.  It's not like they added 5,000 votes for Tom today.

From the Daily Progress:

More votes may soon be added to Perriello's tally, according to numbers posted on the blog of Charlottesville Electoral Board Chairman Rick Sincere.

Sincere wrote that Wednesday's vote canvass in Charlottesville found that Perriello had received 15,754 votes on Tuesday and Goode received 3,715.

The State Board of Elections has not yet updated its Charlottesville tally with the changes, showing the city with 15,089 votes for Perriello and 3,592 for Goode.

If accurate, Charlottesville's count would add 665 votes for Perriello and 123 votes for Goode, handing Perriello a net gain of 542.

Here is a link to Rick's Blog, but I don't see the post about Perriello.

The update is way down the page though.

Goode's total down to 157,682.

Perriello at +386

Must. Learn. To. Type.

No worries. I actualy did the exact same thing. I think it was my subconscious telling me not to add votes for Virgil Goode!

. . .  but compared to the vote count changes which were occuring at this stage of the Webb/Allen canvass, it sure seems like there are a lot more corrections this go around.

I remember one big change in Allen's favor but other than that the numbers were pretty stable

Why so much initial tabulation sloppiness this go around?

its being reported that Dick Gephardt laughed so hard his head exploded and Denny Hastert said "Virgil who?"

SBE is reporting 158,514 to 157,880, which gives Tom a 634 vote lead. Does anyone know if were still waiting for C-ville to report the canvass?

C-ville definitely helped Tom, today.

Sharon Bulova announces on Nov 12 her campaign to backfill Gerry Connolly's Chairmanship.  Then we have that race to go until the special election in Feb, then the gear up for the Democratic primaries for Gov/Lt. Gov/Atty Gen in June, then the general election in 12 months.  When Sharon wins the Chaimanship, then Moon wins the special election a few months later to backfill her Supervisor seat from Providence, will we have a special election to fill the at-large school board seat?  

Damn, winning is fun :-)

When I look at the History of Changes listed at the VA Election Board website I have been able to follow those changes accept when I get to Charlottesville.  As an example: the change in Absentee Votes for Tom is from zero to 3112 and when you add all the C-ville changes there are well over 7000 additional votes for Tom.

I know that can't be right (though I wish they were) but do not understand what those numbers represent.  Anyone have any thoughts.

Thanks!!!

Sometimes the changes apparently don't bother to mention what the previous total was.  As in, when it says Tom went from 0 to 3112, it must mean he went from, say, 2850 to 3112.

When no vote total was originally reported in other precincts throughout the district, the reason for change always said: "no data entered on election night."  The gains for Perriello are marked as "incomplete results reported from precinct."  Implying that something should be in the original value column.  Instead, those all say zero.  The difference between what ought to be in the original value column, and what is in the newly reported total, is probably the answer to your question.

I wish they would tell us what those previous totals were - makes it a lot easier to get a read on things.

According to the Martinsville Bulletin, after the canvass, Perriello gained 5 and Goode gained 1. Net Perriello +4.

I don't anticipate a major shift in Albermarle's numbers as the county likely will not have major discrepancies in their vote totals.  However, I know I sent a couple first-years to East Ivy with the possibility of voting on provisional ballots so it's possible we'll see some gains in that way. Moreover, anything that does change there will likely go Tom's way.

say that there are about 80 ballots outstanding in Albermarle County.  

Perriello has won 63% or so of the ballots in Albermarle.  That would mean about a 50-30 split on the 80 outstanding ballots, so a nice +20.

Just wondering if this thing is likely to be decided tonight.

Perriello wins  https://www.voterinfo.sbe.virg...

Will trigger a recount, but I'm confident the results will stand.

Although that is looking extremely likely at this point. Canvassing may go as long as next Wednesday. Then we have till the 24th for the BOE to certify the results, THEN the losing candidate has 10 days to ask for a recount if it is in 1%.

Wish that the VSBE would give us a hint on how much longer they really think it will take.  Mind you, I don't care how long it takes, so long as the result is a nice, comfy lead for Tom.

That election officials have called Tom Perriello to tell him he's won!

http://southeastvirginia.blogs...

This is absolutely wonderful news.  Hope that Jim White is right and that nothing much changes between now and official certification of the vote.  Figures that Goode is already trying to find ways to contest provisional ballots.  Regardless, little is likely to change in a recount.  Remember, there were under 400 votes separating Webb from Allen in 2006, during that recount.  Recounts in Virginia, historically, don't show marked shifts from the certified total.  Going into the recount with that much of a buffer is a great thing.  Goode should be worried.

I haven't seen any official announcements from the VSBE.  They were apparently still posting updates as of an hour ago.

There were still additions as late as 7:33 pm tonight; a few more votes coming in here and there. It only resulted in Goode closing by one vote, though:

Perriello 158,551
Goode 157,913

638

 

From Goode:

Any declarations of winners and losers in this race is premature. This contest is undeniably close, the vote totals have greatly varied back and forth since election night, and the official counting process is still ongoing. It is important that we take the time for a fair and thorough process to ensure that every legitimate vote is counted. We remain optimistic that we will prevail when this process is completed.

Woo Hoo. That's the statement of a candidate who doesn't think he is going to catch up!

From the Roanoke Times:

Goode, who has been in state or federal elected office since 1973, spent most of Wednesday in Rocky Mount. Wearing a red and blue "God Bless America" hat, he shifted between his campaign office and the courthouse as his staff worked phones and talked to local volunteers.

Goode expressed concern about provisional ballots that have been filed, and said election officials need to verify whether those voters presented valid identification and were voting at the correct precincts.

"There's an attorney sitting in the office right now," said Goode, a lawyer himself. "Without going into all the specifics, there's some question about the provisional ballots and whether they complied with Virginia law."

The article also discusses what happened in Danville last night, and ends with this kicker:

Goode said he hopes he has survived, and that he has learned from the experience.

"We'll look at our office operation," he said.

The numbers from Danville were most enjoyable for me to see!  Goode should have thought about his "office operation" long before he met Perriello.  You don't wake up at the last minute and suddenly decide you're going to actually begin representing your constitutents.  You certainly don't finally decide to change your ways now that you've pretty much lost the election.  Guess Goode has one thing in common with his GOP pal Palin:  slow learners, both of 'em.

Virgil has never before had a serious challenge in this District, so there was never any need for a ground game.

Lucky for him, it looks like he'll have some time to think over.  

I am not a citizen but have been following this elections really closely. I didn't know foreigners could volunteer for campaigns, else I definitely would have. I know this 648 is going to get bigger, and the most important thing is district 5 is solidly blue with Perriello, Warner and Obama.

The more I read about Tom Perriello, the more I admire his past and what he has done in Africa, etc.

Good luck to him and can't wait for the absolute final result so Goode can finally retire from this district.

Democratic Central has a nice write-up about what's left to canvass in the 5th district, particularly Albermarle County.  Looks like Tom should pick up some more votes there.

http://www.democraticcentral.c...

I'm starting to feel a better about this thing.  It ain't over yet, but at least I'm getting a lot more optimistic!