Every election cycle brings "winners" and "losers." This one was no exception. With that, here's my list of the top 10 winners coming out of the 2008 elections in Virginia (Top 10 "losers" list coming later). Please note that these are not in any particular order, and also that there are many other winners and losers not listed here. Finally, I've tended to avoid the obvious "winners," like Barack Obama himself, Mark Warner, and the 3 (or 4) Democratic congressional candidates who won this year. Obviously, they are all winners, no need to repeat that in the Top 10 list. :)
Winners
1) Tim Kaine. He got behind Barack Obama early and helped boost him to victory in Virginia - the first time a Democratic presidential candidate has carried the Commonwealth since 1964. No question, this was a major accomplishment by Tim Kaine.
2) The Virginia Democratic "netroots". As Nate Wilcox and I explain in Netroots Rising, the "netroots" is basically "ordinary people doing extraordinary things," using the internet - to more or less a degree - as a means of organizing, gathering and disseminating information, making the case for their candidate, raising money through online contributions, etc. In 2008, the Virginia Democratic netroots, encouraged and facilitated by the Obama campaign, took it to the proverbial "other level," surpassing in some ways the amazing accomplishment of Jim Webb's 10,000-strong, "ragtag army" in 2006. Congratulations, everybody, on a job well done!
3) The Virginia Obama campaign team, and the Virginia coordinated campaign. These people were superb, at least based on my interactions with people like Jared Leopold and Clark Stevens. I was always informed, and let's just say we broke and/or "blew up" a few stories thanks to our close cooperation. Hey, what a concept; the "top down" and "bottom up" working closely together and achieving maximum results. :)
4) African Americans, who turned out in large numbers and overwhelmingly not just for Barack Obama, but also for Glenn Nye and Tom Perriello. Thanks in large part to African Americans, Virginia gave its 13 electoral votes to Barack Obama, and very well may have flipped the Congressional delegation from 8-3 Republican to 6-5 Democratic (pending the outcome of the Tom Perriello-Virgil Goode race).
5) Hispanics, who also turned out in large numbers and also overwhelmingly (although less so) for Democratic candidates. According to this morning's Wall Street Journal, "Record turnout among Hispanic voters helped push Barack Obama over the top in an election that signals the emerging political clout of the nation's fastest-growing demographic group." And in Virginia, "their support also was crucial in hotly contested states such as Virginia and Pennsylvania, where Latinos now represent about 5% of the voting population." Good job, Republicans, in alienating Hispanics with your harsh anti-immigrant rhetoric. Keep it up, and say goodbye to the White House for many, many years to come! :)
6) FCDC Chair Scott Surovell, ACDC Chair Peter Rousselot, PWDC Chair Pete Frisbie. These guys, the chairs of the Fairfax County, Arlington County, and Prince William County Democrats, all did great jobs this year, and I congratulate them. I'm sure that many other Democratic chairs across Virginia did great jobs as well, but I just happen to know these guys best, and they all helped deliver for Barack Obama in their counties (Arlington went 72%-27% for Obama, Fairfax went 60%-40%, and Prince William went 57%-42%. Congratulations! [UPDATE: From the comments, please add Loudoun County Democratic Committee chair Tim Buchholz to this list.]
7) Howard Dean's 50-State Strategy. This paid off across the country, including right here in Virginia. Combined with financial and other resources from the DNC, DSCC, DCCC and the Obama campaign (plus the aforementioned netroots, Tim Kaine, African Americans, Hispanics, Democratic committee chairs) the 50-state strategy - and great organizers like Susan Mariner and Joe Montano - helped to turn Virginia "blue" this year. And they said it couldn't be done... :)
8) The pollsters. The Real Clear Politics average poll results the day of the election indicated a 4.4-point victory for Barack Obama in Virginia. The actual result? A 4.5-point victory for Barack Obama in Virginia. Not bad! Particularly good performances were put in by Rasmussen (+4 Obama), ARG (+4 Obama) and SurveyUSA (+4 Obama). The last poll to show John McCain leading in Virginia was Mason-Dixon on 9/29-10/1, but Mason-Dixon's final poll had Obama winning Virginia by 3 points.
9) Nate Silver/538. This site and its proprietor, Nate Silver, weren't just awesome nationally, they also did great work with their Road to 270 series, including several trips to Virginia (Big Stone Gap, C-ville, Richmond, NOVA) and a pre-election interview with Tim Kaine. Great job!
10) Grudgingly, I have to give a big "winner" award to Frank Wolf, who not only held on to his seat, but actually increased his margin from 2006. I don't like the guy particularly much, but obviously he must be doing something right in the eyes of his constituents. Maybe he'll retire in 2010 or 2012? :)
Obama/Biden - 52.53%
McCain/Palin - 46.54%
Warner - 60.88%
Gilmore - 37.94%
And we continued our move to blue:
Al Gore- 2000- 42.6%
John Kerry- 2004- 46.25%
Barack Obama- 2008- 53.53%
Is Judy simply unelectable to the rural voters?
Should we have backed Mike Turner this time (who I do like, though I like Judy better)?
I am very happy about Obama, Warner, Nye, Perriello; but frustrated that my own district continues to elect by a huge margin a man who does not support the troops he sends away to get shot at.
I am more determined than ever to unseat Frank Wolf and want to start organizing now for 2010.
Anyone have the current thinking on that?
Simple demographics are killing Republicans. Then again, after flipping the 5th, who knows what's really safe for the Republicans in VA now.
Facing reality--though I continued to canvass for Obama, Warner, and Feder-- I sent my money to the Obama campaign and to the DSCC--as well as a little to El Tinklenberg, who at least had a shot at unseating the despicable Michele Bachmann in Minnesota.
Feder would have made a solid Congresswoman and would have brought a lucid perspective on health care into the policy debate. But she was not a particularly effective campaigner. Her ads were tepid and forgettable. She has now had her two tries, and she lost ground in the second attempt--even with Warner's and Obama's coattails to help. The 10th District Dems now need to find a new candidate.
Unless Wolf is caught someday with that legendary "dead woman or live boy," I'm afraid we'll have to wait until he retires or dies before Democrats can take the 10th. If a strong candidate out there wants to give it a go and get some name recognition and campaign experience in 2010--knowing full well that the district won't be winnable for our side as long as Frank Wolf is around--then well and good. But we shouldn't deceive ourselves.
http://raisingkaine.com/showCo...
What was true two years ago is still true now.
While we in the blogosphere go back and forth on big issues, every day there are people going to their US Representative to get help on much more mundane things like support checks, green cards, documentation of one type of another.
We can get into questions about Ms. Feder, her campaign, etc. But long before that the first analysis you have to clear is how Frank Wolf is viewed by folks in his district.
Congressman Wolf's constituent service is superb and has been for his entire time in office. The story I offered two years ago still stands as an example of the long term impact good constituent service can have.
A Democrat simply cannot win the 10th District when you've got Fairfax County and some of the more "blue" areas of the District at less than 65% turnout and better than 75% turnout in places like Winchester and Frederick.
Moreover, there was something like a 25,000 vote drop-off between the presidential and House race.
If Dems want to win the 10th, they're going to actually have to show up and vote for the Democratic candidate. It's that simple.
By the way, Jim Moran only "lost" 5% of Obama's votes, while Gerry Connolly only "lost" 7%.
That still leaves us why why?
I a scratching my head in dismay.
The Dems in the district have to show up and do their part. To blame Judy for not being good enough is ideologically lazy.
Judy held roughly all the same positions as did Barack Obama, and in some cases she was actually MORE conservative. The fact that even Democrats on this list run around spouting ridiculous republican talking points about Judy being too liberal for this district is just plain lazy nonsense.
Judy's position on Health Care was the Obama position on health care. In fact, she was a surrogate for the Obama campaign on Health Care.
Judy's position on taxes was basically the same. There are those who believe Obama was a socialist, fine, they may call Judy a socialist. But anybody else, particularly Democrats, who believed her to be to the left of Obama on taxes, it's just silly and pathetic.
Judy's position on transportation, human rights, gang task force was essentially the same as or better than Frank WOlf's position on those issues.
There was simply no excuse for a Democrat to be voting for Frank Wolf this election.
Lots of people spent a lot of time hand-wringing and whining about Judy being too liberal or "not being able to win."
Judy did better in VA-10 than any Democrat has done against Frank Wolf in probably more than two decades. You won't see another Democrat do this well against Frank Wolf for as long as he stays in office. Anyone who wants to beat Frank Wolf will have to raise $4 million or more to do so. I doubt Dems will be able to recruit a Dem who could raise half the money Judy was able to raise.
Anyone who thinks otherwise is just flat-out politically naive.
Everybody should feel free to take a well deserved vacation.
Republicans, you need to take a vacation too.
It'll be interesting to see how things shape up in 2012, but in this election cycle Virginia's percentages match the national vote percentages closer than any other state.
It looks like when all things are said and done that Virginia will shake-out as only slightly less Democratic than the rest of the country as a whole.
Texas, however, proved to be quite obstinate (or ornery if you prefer) as usual. Obama was crushing in the burbs most places, but the counties around Harris (Houston) and Dallas were still reliably red. When you look at the Texas map Harris, Dallas, Travis, and Bexar are all surrounded by a sea of red (except for the valley, of course). For such a diverse place, they are amazingly uniform in their desire to elect Republicans. =( Oh and low turnout (59%), 3% higher than 2004; but really poor overall. And Texas makes it real easy to vote; so, double shame on those 41% who chose not to.
