VA-05: Likely Heading for Recount

By: faithfull
Published On: 11/5/2008 1:48:38 PM

Perriello's position has improved throughout the day and he is currently sitting on a 31 vote lead.

RacePrecincts InDem% - Rep%Vote +-
VA-05100% Perriello 49.97% (157,456) - Goode 49.96% (157,425) Perriello +31

Tom Perriello has been benefiting from provisional vote counts and canvassing correction of human error today, and his position continues to improve. Via a a commenter at CVille News, there was also a huge shift towards Goode this morning due to VERIS machines in Danville City shifting 1,809 votes to Goode and subtracting 308 votes from Tom Perriello when they came back online at 8AM. I don't expect foul play, as updated vote totals roughly mirror the 2004 results. Richmond Times-Dispatch has more, and its worth keeping an eye on.

Via aznew, it seems that Goode is gearing up for a recount, and in the comments they give us a rundown of problems in VA-05, rules for contesting elections, and local news updates. Check it out.

The Perriello campaign has released a statement this morning:

"We are clearly seeing a very close election with vote totals from different counties changing rapidly, and Tom Perriello remains confident that when everyone's vote is counted he will win this election and move ahead with his agenda for economic revival in the fifth district. Right now, our focus is on making sure every single vote is counted and every single voice is heard. The results need to be certified and there are provisional ballots that need to be considered. We are confident that people in the fifth district want change and that we are going to be successful in this election in the end."

The AP numbers may be correct, CNN pegs the race at Perriello +119, Goode plus 500ish Perriello +80, but I'm sticking with the State Board of Elections numbers.
VA-05 in yellow.
Democratic pickups (VA-02, VA-11) in light blue.


Comments



Just some quick legal research (aznew - 11/5/2008 3:05:32 PM)
Real down and dirty.

A losing candidate can ask for a recount only if the loss is by less than 1% of the total votes cast (in this race, that would be anything less than 3,147 votes, so we will be within that.)

A recount cannot be asked for until after the BOE certifies the election, which will occur Nov. 24. The request then needs to be filed within 10 days, or by Dec. 4.

A recount will simply recount the ballots cast.

Contesting an election is something different. That is where, basically, you complain about the conduct of the election. That needs to be requested within 30 days of the election, or if there is a recount, and the initial winner in declared the loser, within 10 days of that.

Grounds to contest an election are:

(i) objections to the eligibility of the contestee based on specific allegations,
(ii) objections to the conduct or results of the election accompanied by specific allegations which, if proven true, would have a probable impact on the outcome of the election, or
(iii) both.



Standards for a Recount are here: (aznew - 11/5/2008 3:09:30 PM)
http://www.sbe.virginia.gov/cm...


And here is a pretty good article on the subject from 2006 (aznew - 11/5/2008 3:15:11 PM)
So it obviously doesn't address this year's revisions. Not yet sure what the substance of those were.

http://www.scribd.com/doc/3712...



Virgil's gearing up for recount (aznew - 11/5/2008 3:25:15 PM)
This is from this morning, so the vote count is old, but the point remains:

http://www.charlottesvillenews...

Unfortunately for Tom, Goode has pulled ahead in the cliche department:

"He will contest and/or battle what is right and what he feels is worthy," said Goode volunteer Dee Dee Bondurant.

"He's a winner," Goode supporter Janet Mease agreed. "A winner never quits and a quitter never wins."

I hope they have their noses to the grindstone over at Perriello HQ.

The more serious point, the silliness of Goode's supporters aside, is that they are ready to fight.

I am suspicious of the way those numbers changed last night. We should not let Virgil Goode steal this election.



Oh shit..... (Doug in Mount Vernon - 11/5/2008 3:32:44 PM)
I thought Perriello had won this thing last night so I'm a little stressed to hear this....we NEED that 6-5 Democratic majority in Virginia's congressional delegation!!

Here's hoping the sorting of the numbers isn't doing anything fishy for Tom!



Here is a convenient rundown of some voting problems in VA-05 (aznew - 11/5/2008 3:37:24 PM)
from Democrats.com:

http://www.democrats.com/node/...

Complaints compiled by David Swanson from this site:

http://www.ourvotelive.org/map...

This is from Campbell County:
"Voting machine is jamming. Asking voter to hit "McCain" to clear the machine, instead of using override to clear and to let the voters properly register the vote. Local NAACP has been called about the problem."
From Charlottesville:
"Voter from Charlottesville, VA requested an absentee ballot which only arrived on Election Day."
"Student voters were not able to cast a regular ballot because they registered with student groups that did not turn in the forms on time."
"Unsubstantiated rumor from Clark that machines broke down at Tonsler. As a result paper ballots were being used. Some were not being counted due to boxes not being completely filled in (they were checked instead). However, instruction wasn't being provided to completely fill-in ballots."
From Bedford:
"concerned whether the machine properly recorded her vote. the machine jammed when the voter in front of her tried to vote."
"machine stalled on voter before this voter - would not go forward or backward - voter had to vote on machine after they got it going again and is concerned about whether her vote counted because there was no papertrail"
From Fluvanna:
"Tried to vote. The candidate for senator came up, voted, but the candidates for president never came up on the voting screen. Also happened to the person that came before her."
From Cumberland:
"Family members have same name. One member of family committed felony. Other member denied ability to vote."
From Greene:
"Poll worker pressed wrong button on voting machine (hit countrywide and not enter) as a result voter was not able to vote in statewide races. Thinks that this may be happening to other voters as a result of poll worker error. Left polls crying. Poll worker said would file an incident reprot but was told by superiors that this "could not happen" with the electronic machines. Voters thinks that it may signfiy other problems with machines."
From Appomatox:
"Touch screen voting machine did not allow the voter the opportunity to vote for the Presidential candidates. Talked to voter registration people for their county and they said there was nothing they could do after the ballot was submitted. Voter registration officials told the voter that there had been similar problems in Appamattox, VA."
From Prince Edward:
"Caller learned that others had entered a nursing home and filled out patients' ballots without them knowing who they were voting for."
From Franklin:
"Voter mailed registration form in, is listed as registered in our database, but was told he was not registered when he went to his polling place."
"Voter selected Obama and McCain showed as indicated. Voter corrected her ballot and machine then recorded her selected choice after voter talked w/election official"
From Henry:
"saw a man with republican campaign buttons approach 4 elderly african american voters and he told them to vote the bible; voter's husband reported this to the supervisor in the elections office in Henry County"
"Went vote early. They told him that because he works for a campaign, he cannot vote early except for presiden. He did not vote at all as a consequence. Went to vote at the Henry County Administration Building, 3300 Kings Mountain Road, Collinsville. Approximately at 1:15 pm on October 31, 2008."
"attempted to register son on line. Not in Va. database"
From Mecklenburg:
"Caller was turned away from proper polling place because told he was not on the registration list. Caller has a registration card and voted in the primaries, so it is surprising that voter does not appear in any of the registration databases. Voter has not moved since the primary election this year."
"Voter was told she is not registered, although she is showing up on our database as registered."
"She is 53 and voted a lot fo different ways and today they looked at IDs. She is used to electronic way and the woman handed her a paper ballot and she said that the machine is broken. She didn't tell and didn't say anything. Explained it to the person previously and never tells her where to put it. Folded ballot and put in the box. She called the voting registrar but he said that the machine had been fixed at 6:30. Worried that her ballot would not be counted. No one was watching the box. Thinks that these voted won't be counted. Thinks that the machines are fixed but doesn't know."
"Touch screens difficult to register answer. He got help from poll worker, but is concerned that others are not able to make their selections properly because it is difficult to press. Mecklenburg County. Precinct 701"
"Daughter and son in law moved to Georgia in early October and faxed absentee ballot to Virginia. Daughter called local board; said not received."
From Brunswick:
"She asked to help her. The poll worker got an attitude with her. They got into an argument and the poll worker would not allow her to vote and asked her to leave."


UPDATE: Goode v. Perriello (aznew - 11/5/2008 3:46:56 PM)
From Channel 19 in C'ville:

http://www.charlottesvillenews...

Among other things, Ch. 19 reports Goode held a conference call with the media late Wednesday morning discussing the next steps. He is spinning furiously.

Story also reports:

1. Both Tom and Goode saying they will wait until all votes are counted.

2. Both optimistic they will prevail.

3. Goode claims all absentee ballots have been counted, but "he is concerned about some provisional ballots not complying with Virginia law. For example, voters may have been at the wrong voting precinct, or did not bring the proper forms of identification." BIG TELL HERE, FOLKS)

4. Goode also says lawyers may have to get involved.

5. Goode has not heard from the Perriello campaign.

6. Both say there are "still a number of provisional ballots that need to be counted." That will occur Wednesday.



Tom now up by 30! (Populista - 11/5/2008 4:11:02 PM)
And 20 in the AP count.

I hope we win this so much. It's gonna be the tightest race in the country though.



Where are you finding those AP numbers? (faithfull - 11/5/2008 4:34:21 PM)
Thanks


Saw it on a blog (Populista - 11/5/2008 5:25:26 PM)
can't remember where.


I'll keep searching as well (faithfull - 11/5/2008 6:00:22 PM)
Same story for me.


Well, then, it MUST be right! (Lowell - 11/5/2008 6:07:53 PM)
:)


COME ON TOM! (DanG - 11/5/2008 4:20:37 PM)
Hold on, man.  Democrats will truly be the majority party in Virginia when Virgil Goode goes down!


It's not over (Glant - 11/5/2008 6:10:01 PM)

Until the individual County Board of Elections conduct the county-wide audits.  That includes adjudication of each provisional ballot cast during yesterday's election.


Watch out for dirty tricks by Virgil (Lowell - 11/5/2008 6:36:29 PM)
and the Republicans. I wouldn't be at all surprised by just about anything they might try.  Remember Florida 2000...


CNN/MSNBC... (Jerry Saleeby - 11/5/2008 6:25:22 PM)
...has the Perriello lead at 81 votes.

Many of us at Franklin County HS have had a day of ups and downs.  When we arrived at school today, we were elated.  However, by 8:30 we were brought down to earth.  We followed the vote changes during our breaks and then we left school uplifted that Tom had recaptured the lead, albeit by a narrow margin.  I feel a need to remain tethered to my computer for fear I might miss another uptick.



CNN/MSNBC/ DKos (faithfull - 11/5/2008 6:31:12 PM)
All show Goode losing about 50 votes from his current total, while Tom is staying flat. I'd like to see if from the VA Board of Elections first.


Machines in Danville (uva08 - 11/5/2008 7:37:23 PM)
I have a question.  According to the SBE, the reason for the shift in votes had to do with the machines going down at 12 this morning.  Does this mean the more accurate count was prior to midnight?  Wasn't Perriello ahead by a larger margin in those precincts at that time?


Looking into that (faithfull - 11/5/2008 7:51:18 PM)
There was a slight change at 12:13AM, then from between 8:03-819, there were several changes made because the VERIS voting machines went down at midnight.

During these changes, it looks like Virgil Goode picked up about 1900 votes total, mostly in Ward 16 and 17. To be fair, the numbers are now more like what they were in the 2004 Congressional race in Danville.

Bryan Pfaffenberger has been covering it at CVille news, and says that at the 8 o clock changes, Tom lost 308 votes and Virgil gained 1,809. Thats not including the changes at 12:13.



BP! (tripinva - 11/5/2008 8:04:58 PM)
Hah!  Bryan Pfaffenberger is one of my professors this semester. =)  Small world...


As the sublime Steven Wright added (aznew - 11/5/2008 8:12:24 PM)
...but I wouldn't want to have to paint it.


But in Danville (aznew - 11/5/2008 8:11:11 PM)
Obama got about 1,000 more votes than Tom did.

On the other hand, there was little drop-off from McCain/Palin to Goode.

That makes me wonder a bit.

Also, I looked at Bryan's posts at Cville News. He describes what happened well enough, but he doesn't really explain it.

Given all the numbers flying around, and the closeness of this thing, I really think this is a place and an event that will need some explanation. I'm guessing the campaign is getting one, even if we are not.



It also makes me wonder (uva08 - 11/5/2008 8:27:49 PM)
considering Perriello ran ahead of Obama in surrounding Pittsylvania County and in the 5th district overall.


If it helps... (faithfull - 11/5/2008 8:30:33 PM)
In 2004 6% of voters, or roughly 15-16,000 voters in the district cast a vote for President but not for Congress. That doesn't neccesarily explain the difference in McCain-Goode and Obama-Perriello numbers though.

I'm still not convinced that there was anything fishy, although Im curious. The percentages and vote totals seem to match the 2004 results pretty well.  



I am just curious as well (perhaps paranoid) (uva08 - 11/5/2008 8:42:47 PM)
I wish someone would come out and explain everything.  It would be one thing if Goode won this thing by a small but decisive margin, but it is quite another to have it within our grasp.  I am thinking optimistically.  Don't provisional ballots skew democratic?  I can remember the numbers in the attorney general's race shrinking and Webb's margin growing after the canvass was completed and all the provisionals were counted.


Provisionals are probably not being counted (notjohnsmosby - 11/5/2008 9:14:32 PM)
It's exceptionally rare for a provisional to be counted since the main reason to even do a provisional is really to make a voter feel better.  It's usually a "I know I registered and received my card and everything but I don't have it now and I don't know why I'm not in the book".  That kind of thing.  It's rare to have more than a few at a given precinct, and they're easy to get dismissed by either team.  They're not opened until adjudicated, so the general concept is to just toss it since, quite frankly, you don't know if it's a vote for your guy or the other guy.  Blind Man's Bluff, basically.  

Most issues at the polls today are handled by something other than a provisional.  



I understand that not many are counted (uva08 - 11/5/2008 9:24:58 PM)
but some provisional ballots are often counted.  In Charlottesville, after the '04 election there were 16 "conditional votes."  In Albemarle, there were 7.  Granted these aren't huge numbers, but in a race this close it will make a difference.


CVille News: (faithfull - 11/5/2008 9:30:04 PM)
Is reporting that there are 80 provisional ballots in Albermarle County alone this year.

The provisional ballots will make or break this race.



Wow (uva08 - 11/5/2008 9:36:58 PM)
I am willing to bet that number is Charlottesville.  


is bigger* in Charlottesvile (uva08 - 11/5/2008 9:56:51 PM)


Different (notjohnsmosby - 11/5/2008 10:55:49 PM)
Remember, in VA, cities are independent from counties.  If the post below is correct and there are a lot of provisionals for the same reason - "never received mail-in ballot" - in multiple jurisdictions, and it's determined that the elections board did not receive the mail-ins, then they most likely will count.  

By the way, that's why there's a canvass for a couple of days.  Count all you know, then go at the provisionals since all mail-ins should be in the system.  

That's the best way to get provisionals counted - a repeated pattern with a good number of ballots cast for the same reason.  And, that's a reason/problem that can't be corrected with live voting at the poll.  The exact good reason provisionals are there.



Yes (uva08 - 11/5/2008 11:34:53 PM)
I understand that point.  I was just saying that the number of provisionals may be higher than the 80 in Charlottesville based on past results.  However, I looked at the results from '04 and '06 and it appears that there were more provisional ballots in Charlottesville than Albemarle that year year, but the same amount in '06 (despite Charlottesville being half the size of Albemarle in population and less then half in terms of registered voters.  In other words, there seemed to be a disproportionately high number of conditional votes in Charlottesville.)


That is a lot and not your normal reasons (notjohnsmosby - 11/5/2008 10:51:29 PM)
If that's because people who asked for mail-in absentee never received it, and then went in to vote in person, then I would certainly fight to have them counted.  Take the risk, especially in a county that went for your guy.  


I see your point (aznew - 11/5/2008 8:58:29 PM)
That undervote sucks.


Charlottesville (uva08 - 11/6/2008 12:01:26 AM)
According to NBC29, there are 85 provisional ballots in Charlottesville and they are also reporting that Perriello picked up a net of 12 votes for tabulation errors today which don't show up on SBE yet. http://www.nbc29.com/global/st...


Do really think Perriello will win in a re-count? (notfair - 11/5/2008 8:19:47 PM)
I don't think Tom will win in a re-count.  I was working the polls yesterday and this one woman was opening the door for everyone and every now and then telling them, "Remember Virgil" with a cute little smile.  She seemed to know everyone by name.  I don't know if she was doing this to show off, or what.  Someone asked her if her new job was opening the door, and she said, "No, you know Virgil sent me here...and you KNOW why I'm here..."  Like some mafia princess guarding a store...

Then a guy came up and showed me where I needed to stand, she just stood there, probably because she wasn't handing out anything....

So, the guy started talking to me and told me he was related to Virgil. I looked down at his tag and he was the head of the elections there...

Then some people were walking and he said, "Did you do good?" and the guy said, "Yea, I'm doing good." and then he said in a sarcastic voice, "No, did you DO GOODE?"  I was so mad...  I knew they had a hold on some of the things in the 5th District, but when I heard all of that, I figured it was fixed, or they would fix it...

I wouldn't be caught DEAD saying something like that if I was the head of the elections at the school.  But I guess they can do whatever they want there, 'cause no one would ever go against them...or Virgil for that matter....

I thought it was bad in Sicily until I met Goode people...

So, I'm still hoping for the best, but after yesterday, can imagine what they are going to do to get Virgil re-elected...

Poor Tom...



Where were you? (aznew - 11/5/2008 8:26:28 PM)
I don't know all the ins and outs of election law, but I count at least two serious violations there.

I was in Buckingham County, and scrupulously followed the rules, except once when I allowed an old lady to lean on me within the orange line while I was wearing a Perriello T-shirt.



I Agree... (Clemgo3165 - 11/6/2008 12:10:54 PM)
If someone's opening the door to your polling place reminding you to remember Virgil, that's TOTALLY illegal - heck, we can't even where Perriello stickers into the polling place.  No campaigning within 40 feet of the polling place.  You should call your county registrar or that one - or the SBE.


And I'm not thinking recount yet (aznew - 11/5/2008 8:27:45 PM)
The first step is for Tom to be declared the winner.


Ugh, going to be a long month (DSD - 11/6/2008 12:23:15 AM)
I'll be really depressed if Tom P loses! It has seriously put a damper on my ORE (obama related euphoria)


Hey, it doesn't have to be a long month, DSD (aznew - 11/6/2008 10:25:57 AM)
You don't need to be depressed -- you can help.

I don't where in the Fifth you are, but keep an eye on your local media and make sure they are reporting correctly that Tom Perriello is wining the vote.

As we saw in Florida in 2000, the impression that forms in people's minds about who "won" and who is trying to change the election results, matters. I guarantee that once Virgil sees that he can't catch up in an honest vote count that his next step will be to spread as much misinformation as possible about Tom and the results.

TOM PERRIELLO IS WINNING THIS ELECTION -- and if your local media is reporting anything different, drop them a polite email and make sure they know the facts.



As of 11:19 am (Science Virginian - 11/6/2008 12:21:00 PM)
SBE is now showing Tom up by 52 votes:

Perriello 157,457
Goode 157,405



Details... (Science Virginian - 11/6/2008 12:23:39 PM)
Tom picked up 1 vote in Henry County, and Goode lost 20 in Pittsylvania County.