First, 13% of self-described liberals are supporting Goode. I just don't see that.

Goode also sports the support of 36% of self-described moderates. That's more believable, since many people tend to see themselves as moderate, even if they are Conservative (or Liberal).

Second, but more importantly, 58% of Tom's supporters have already voted, versus 35% of Virgil's. Perhaps this simply represents the fact that people in the C'ville area were more likely, for some reason, to take advantage of this opportunity, but it also means that many Goode voters may still be influenced by the steady flow of substantive allegations being directed at Goode regarding misuse of his office, and the general nonsense coming from him as well.

Tonight's debate will be very interesting. I'd say it's now 50-50 that Goode doesn't show.

Could that suppress turnout a bit among those who haven't voted yet?  If it even does a little bit, could that be enough to win it for Tom in such a tight race? Hey, Aznew, do you know any good rain dances? :)

58% of those who voted early supported Tom. Our massive GOTV effort and vols...like aznew, are going to make the difference.

Ha. :)

That is actually what I was trying to say.

If we get a larger than average turn-out in Cville and in the African-American communities, Periello might actually pull this off.  I'm shocked.  I thought the guy had potential when I first heard of him, but I never thought he had a legitimate chance to win.  But Obama, though he won't win the fifth, might have enough coattails in key demographics to pull Periello across the finish line.

I'm hearing similar things out of the Second.  Obama coattails amongst African-Americans might barely drag Nye across the finish line.  If we pick up three house seats, we will have a Democratic Governor, two democratic senators, and a majority of House seats blue.  Come on guys, GOTV!

I know it's deep into fantasy land... but it's always good to have a contingency plan for success....

Beers all around?

...I'm there! :)

Because I'm 99.99% sure it isn't going to happen.

The eleventh is a lock.  The fifth and the second are still leaning very slightly against us, but we could win those with exceptional turnout.  I just can't wrap my mind around the concept, however, that Feder is competetive, especially when she lost by 16 points just two years ago.

Obama won't win the 5th and 2nd.  BUT, he might get close enough in both that the race gets out of hand for McCain.  And I think he's got a pretty good shot at winning the tenth.  Obama wins the 3rd by ridiculous numbers, same in the 11th and 8th.  He wins the 10th by fair numbers, and keeps it close in the second and fifth, and comparatively close in the fourth and first (compared to recent years).  That leaves McCain to run up the score in the ninth (which won't be THAT bad), the sixth and the seventh.  But he won't be able to counter what happens in the big three for Dems: 11, 8, and 3.  

Both Kaine and Warner won here, and Webb ran strong -- 46%, I think.  And given the last couple of weeks, there is not a single Republican on the ticket that is motivating to folks.

I'm not predicting, but you seem a little too certain.

I wouldn't predict an Obama win in the 5th, but it's certainly possible.

I think if we're certain about what I just said, we'll win.  Winning the fifth would be icing on the cake.

with a smile on my face.

Money certainly helped Tom cut the margin, but he has run a great campaign and he is a compelling candidate. Goode has embarrassed himself and the fifth district with his hysteria over illegal immigration. Dare we call it code words for racism? As a resident of the district I am gravely insulted by his comments. Evidently, I am not the only one since the Danville Register and Bee abandoned their long-time support for Goode and endorsed Tom. Even the Richmond Times-Dispatch dissed Goode. There is a lot of loyalty to Goode by the old timers around here, even those who remained Democrats when Goode went Repubican. Hopefully, they will recover their senses on election day and vote for the best candidate in this district we have seen in my lifetime, Tom Perriello.