I had hoped Indiana would turn blue, but I guess not this time. (It's my relatives' fault, unfortunately.)

With a commanding lead in early voters.  Hope isn't gone in the Hoosier state.

I hope PPP is right.

The pundits tell us that if Virginia goes Democratic, it will be an early sign that McCain will lose. The pundits also tell us that if McCain is unable to carry Pennsylvania, he can't win.

This is wrong. Looking over this map, there is a clear path to victory for McCain even if he loses Virginia and Pensylvania.

If McCain is somehow able t carry California, New York and Massachusetts, it will put him at 272. That is not opinion, my friends, that is a mathematical fact.

Now, I haven't seen a lot of polling from these states, but there can be only one reason for that. The media is suppressing these polls because the races tightening in these states.

...because the Real Clear Politics poll-of-polls for each of those 3 states shows the following:

CA, Obama by 24.4%
MA, Obama by 21.3%
NY, Obama by 29.7%

The reason you're not hearing anything fromthese states is because there's nothing to say except, "Next".

(the comment you're responding to is not meant to be taken seriously).

one can't be so sure these days...

As Rick Davis said, Obama is only running ads in Arizona because he's losing everywhere else. My friends, the liberal media is discounting us yet again!!!1!

even Fake News is suppressing the information about those California, Massachusetts, and New York polls that show McCain with a commanding lead in the state.  It's not just the liberal media that's part of that particular conspiracy.

because I get the joke.  

The 17 percent of registered Republicans in Massachusetts in particular are very likely to give at least 50 percent of their votes to McCain-Palin.

There are 38% more Democrats than Republicans in Pennsylvania and Obama is up by a figure well outside the margin of error. I can't imagine McCain winning Pennsylvania.

making PA dark blue.  Barring any poll evidence otherwise, I may update this later today...

I think it Indiana is maybe an easier one to flip.  Georgia and Arizona are going to be interesting to watch too.

I think Montana flips with Ron Paul peeling off enough McCain support to put Obama over the top in the state.

leaning Obama, 49.4%-48.6%. Can't get much closer than that!

1. Almost all of the state polls seem to leave out cell-phone only users.  
2. I'm sure that the ground organization in Missouri is going to be a first-rate operation.
3. Having a friendly Secretary of State (Robin Carnahan) could make a difference on questions such as keeping polls open at over-burdened election sites and making sure that every vote is counted.  

I say IN goes narrowly to McCain, while MO goes narrowly to Obama.  The margin will also be surprisingly close in GA, MT, and ND.  I also predict Obama cracks 46% in WV.

North Carolina goes blue because of early voting.  Missouri barely goes red, but by the time the news can call the state, the race has been declared over.

Missouri goes red.  North Carolina seems like the tossup of tossups to me right now.

And yeah - PA is totally deep blue.

As for Virginia (and therefore the whole kit and caboodle) being called early - I'm certain it won't be before 11 PM or midnight.  Virginia won't be an Obama landslide - at best he get 51, 52%.  I know this isn't Webb vs. Allen but that wasn't called until the next day - and it wouldn't have been even close to ready until past 11 pm election night thanks to parts of Fairfax, Prince William, and Virginia Beach holding out.  With higher turnout the likelihood for problems increases and there are simply more votes to count - I'm thinking even the rural counties won't give us results until 8:30 or so.

is 52%-47% Obama.

What kind of coattails would that translate into? Would a split like be enough to help Feder, Nye and Perriello, or does that suggest Obama rolls up a big margin in NOVA and the rest of the Commonwealth regresses to its more historic behavior?

...but I think it would need to be a higher margin than that for us to pick up Wolf's seat, probably same deal with Drake's seat. As far as Tom Perriello is concerned, he may win it regardless at this point, although he certainly needs huge African American turnout (which could very well happen).

54-45, Obama. We pick up the 11th, 10th, 5th, and 2nd. Warner wins by 30ish (65-34).

(I don't care if I'm wrong. I'm going optimistic today.)

pick yourself up a lottery ticket!     :)

I predict 397-141 -- we pick up MT, ND, IN, and GA to go with Lowell's map, and NE-02 (Omaha). Yes, Georgia.

Arizona also remains a possibility, but I won't call it for us because the field operation that's been ongoing in all these other states never really geared up in AZ.  

Is that because of Barr splitting the vote or unprecedented African-American turnout or a bit of both?  If it is the latter, then would MS be up for grabs?  I was listening to George Will on This Week.  He said that if African-American turnout is big in MS, then all Musgrove needs is 23% of white voters to win.  37% of the population in MS is African-American.  If they make up a similar share of voters on election day, then MS is conceivably blue too under that formula, at least for the Senate.  So, why not add MS to the mix?

You named two of the main reasons (and the presence of Paul on the ballot in Montana is a similar reason I think we'll carry MT), but mainly it's because of the fact that 36% of the early voting electorate in Georgia is African-American (although they only make up approx. 29% of the state population). If turnout is blown off this thing nationwide, I do think MS could be in play. But the early voting stats just aren't there to justify such an optimistic projection.

I am still hopeful for MS, SD, LA, and SC beyond those I named.  

to keep Wicker from getting that Senate seat.  I mean it would be immensely satisfying if we won the electors too.  I'm excited.  I don't want to get my hopes up to much.  I'd hate to be crushed.  But I can't help thinking this will be a blowout.

Simple.

It will be as close as it was between Clinton and Obama and maybe closer.  I think Obama squeaks by a victory again by caring the two major cities handily and their suburbs.  Obama has this great ground game; so, I think he will manage to pull MO off.

n/t

While I certainly know the history, it is hard for me to see why Indiana would be so different from Ohio and Virginia in this particular election. If you believe Pennsylvania is safe, and Obama wins Ohio and Virginia, then I think Indiana rolls also.

Georgia, Arizona, Montana -- these states are anyone's guess.

But if Ohio, Virginia and Indiana goes Obama's way,  and assuming the CW of 5+ and 20+ pick-ups in the Senate and House, that would represent an utter repudiation of Republican governance. It means Obama EV totals would range from 375 to 417. That's about as good as it gets for the Democrats.

That is key. The Conservatives and GOP (much overlap, but not total)  would each try to paint it as a repudiation of Bush, specifically, but a loss of those proportions would be tough to spin.

I'm just too nervous to predict that is where things are headed. I feel like they are, but I have never really been able to penetrate the mysteries of the moderate and/or Independent Republican voter, although I get the hard core ideologues in the sense of the human condition is varied enough that many intelligent, decent people will believe all kinds of things against all reason.

 

I like your map, but I add Georgia, given the reports of such heavy early voting there.  I also add Montana, as it seems to be trending much like Virginia in recent years.  I add an Obama electoral vote in Nebraska.  Finally, (mainly because of my bitter disappointment that Al Gore lost Tennessee) I add Arizona.  

NOW, MAKE SOME CALLS, Hang some door hangers, drive some people to the polls, remind your friends.  

The landslide starts here in Virginia.  Let's give it the momentum it needs from now until election day.  

MO, NC, IN, ND, and maybe even NV going to McSame.

early voting, I think we can pretty much chalk up a victory there. The other four states you mention are tossups, especially the first two.

in force this time around in the form of "undecided" voters now swinging heavily for McCain.

When you look on Pollster and Real Clear Politics, you find that in several swing states, there has been a distinct upturn in McCain's favorability over the last few days.  I fail to see why this would occur except due to the Bradley effect.  There has been no major issue that has popped up over the last week.  Nothing has suddenly cast McCain in a better light, nor Obama in a poorer one.  And given that undecideds, this late in the game, often split 50/50, the Bradley effect seems a likely cause of this phenomenon.

 We'll see if this sudden breaking for McCain by "undecideds" is enough to throw to McCain states such as:
Missouri  http://www.realclearpolitics.c...
North Carolina
http://www.realclearpolitics.c...
OHIO
http://www.realclearpolitics.c...
Virginia
http://www.realclearpolitics.c...
Pennsylvania
http://www.realclearpolitics.c...
Florida
http://www.realclearpolitics.c...

It will likely make them at least closer than was expected 1 short week ago.

This is only horsesh*t coming out of the McCain campaign trying to stir things up and keep their own voters encouraged.  The truth is, there has been little evidence of a Bradley effect, and 538, Hotline and Gallup have all said their studies indicate there are just as many Black and Latino undecided as White undecideds.  The white's will likely split 40-60 for McCain, while Blacks will split 90-10 and Latinos 60-40 for Obama.  This means if McCain picks up the majority undecided vote, it won't be by much.  And look at the National Numbers: for a week, the undecideds HAVE been leaning McCain.  In fact, McCain gained about 1.5 points in the National polls.  But in the last three days, Obama has also jumped 1.5 points, from 5.9 to 7.4.  That means that Barack Obama is picking up his fair share of undecideds.

what other hypotheses are out there to explain the sudden shift in swing states from undecided to McCain supporter?

Of course I hope the Bradley effect is "horseshit," or conversely, I would love to see a tidal wave of Obama support flood it into oblivion...Or perhaps the anti-Bradley/Bradley affects will wash each other out.  Still, the Bradley effect does exist in some voters.  

 The jury is out on what it will do, and the post election analysis is not yet in.  We'll see.  375 electoral votes for Obama would be great, but my guess is that it will be 291-320.  Again, I hope I am wrong.    

Undecided voters have been splitting relatively evenly on the whole.  In some states, of course, it is different, primarily on where the undecideds were in the state, and who they were.  But on the whole, we're seeing an even split.  Remember, the Bradley effect isn't "racism."  The Bradley Effect is people SAYING they are voting for the minority, and then not doing it.  Entirely different then what you are suggesting, which is just racist voting.

But I suspect the same motivation is at work in some of these late swings in swing-states.  We'll see

http://richmonddemocrat.blogsp...

At least nationally.

Now, you may be on to something in Virginia.  BUT, of the five polls released today, 4 have Obama out over 50% (the only one that doesn't, Mason-Dixon, has had a Republican lean this year).  So, even if we include M-D in our average, McCain needs about 9 out of every 10 undecided voters.  That just won't happen.  He might pull 3/5 in Virginia, but not 9/10.

I think the race has tightened in some places just slightly enough for Obama to barely lose Missouri and Indiana, and maybe North Carolina (though I think that still goes to him by <1%).  However, it has tightened in others, but I still don't think Obama will manage to win Arizona, North Dakota or Georgia.

Hope I'm somehow wrong and Obama gets nearly 400.  That would be incredible.

And the weather in Missouri tomorrow is going to be beautiful, which usually helps Democrats.

I agree with all of your map except Georgia.  I think Georgia is going to be the big surprise of the night, going (by the slimmest of margins) to Obama.  Lots of early voting in the state, most of it in highly African American parts of the state and Democratic districts.  I think the polling models are off in Georgia because turnout will look very different than past elections.

Of course, if Georgia goes "blue," I wouldn't be surprised to see Indiana go blue too.  Mississippi will go for McCain, but it will be a lot closer than expected (possibly putting a Senate seat in play).

I'd love to see Obama win AZ, but that's just dreaming.

has to do with the levels of enthusiasm for voters of both parties.  If you know your guy is going to lose, and you don't even like him that much to begin with, and the lines are really long, what is the motivation for a Republican voter to stand in line and do their civic duty?

For Democrats things are different.  We really like our candidate, we are pretty sure we are going to win, and it is always a lot more fun to vote for a winner - enough that it is worthwhile to stand in line for it.

The thing we don't know is the degree to which this kind of thinking will come into play.  The Republicans have been pushing the meme that they are closing, that they can pull it out, etc, etc, but most of this I think is really aimed at trying to keep their supporters from becoming defeatists and not voting.

Check out RCP.  7.5% Obama lead nationally.  Potential for a landslide, and victory is very likely (at the very least, 278).  McCain's people say, however, that they're internal polls have them up in PA and Iowa.  I find this hard to believe, as the polls in both are pretty consistent: about +7 for Obama in PA and about +12 in Iowa.  They may be pushing a bit or manipulating the model in the polls to what they THINK things will look like.  But I would bet money Obama wins PA and Iowa, and then only needs Colorado (favors Obama), Ohio (slightly favors Obama), Florida (slightly favors Obama), or Virginia (slightly favors Obama) to win.  

users into account is +9 based on 538's analysis.  

http://www.fivethirtyeight.com...

I'd be real surprised if Obama saw a +9 margin.  The cell phone effect though is going to be an interesting factor to watch with tomorrow night's vote.

And an 8% national margin of victory would create a trend that would lead to a landslide.

61 Democratic Senate seats
37 Republican Senate seats
284 Democratic House seats
151 Republican House seats
393 Obama Electoral Votes
145 McCain Electoral Votes
57.0 Obama Popular Vote Percentage
42.0 McCain Popular Vote Percentage

I am probably way off on popular vote, but that does not really matter anyway

Truly.

57 or 58 tops in the Senate.  Means that we just need to keep friendly with Specter, Snowe, and Collins, and we'll be fine.

Popular vote, I think Obama's absolute max is an eight point lead, like 54-46 or something.  And the electoral College?  Max is 375, and I think he only gets there with a 54-46 spread.  I'd put my money on 52-47 nationally, with a 51-48 vote in Virginia in Obama's favor.

similar to Reagan's that netted Republicans 12 seats in the 1980 election, then at least 60 is not out of the question.  With increased turnout in Georgia and especially high African-American turnout, that means that asshole Saxby Chambliss will be out of a job (OMG! if that is not the smallest violin in the world I hear or dream of hearing).  And if Obama turns out tons of African Americans in Mississippi (in terms of percentage of the population, only DC has a higher one than Miss), that would mean Lott's old seat would be ours.  

If it is seismic turn-out, then maybe some East Texas House districts will come in close (maybe not a loss, but close is something in R+12 district).  

McCain could be absolutely right that polling is wrong, though not in the way he thinks.  If Obama brings all of these new voters to the polls, he will break the models.  I certainly hope that is the case.  I want this to be utterly crushing.  So decimating in fact that it leaves the GOP with only their wild-eyed, reactionary core.  

How do you get 61 in the Senate without the two "independents"?

I think the following five turnovers are pretty sure:

+1 Warner
+1 Shaheen
+1 Udall (CO)
+1 Udall (NM)
+1 Begich

That gets us to 54 Democrats NOT counting the two Independents
I also do not think it is that much of a stretch to count on getting the following two races (though they are polling much closer):
+1 Franken
+1 Merkley
So now we are at 56.
I am wagering that the South delivers for Obama and the senate big time:
+1 Hagen
+1 Lunsford
+1 Musgrove
+1 Martin
I know that is far-fetched, but I think it is within the realm.  Dole gave us a bonus with her whacked out Godless ad, and I think the increased turnout from African Americans will help deliver the other three Southern seats.  Lunsford winning in KY is probably the longest shot.

Add to that the surprise race that has been a sleeper this election, I think Allen will pull it out and stomp Collins in Maine:
+1 Allen (ME)

Longshot?  Yes... but I think we are seeing a landslide we are all underestimating here.