New PPP Poll of Virginia: Obama 52%-McCain 46%

By: Lowell
Published On: 11/2/2008 10:25:59 PM

I will gladly take these results with just 32 1/2 hours until polls open:

The race has tightened since last week when we found Obama leading 52-43 in the state. The undecideds may be moving toward John McCain but the Democratic nominee has not lost any ground and given that he's over 50% that's a good sign for his prospects there.

More excellent poll results by PPP:

In Virginia's US Senate race Democrat Mark Warner is set for an easy victory. He leads fellow former Governor Jim Gilmore 62-36, including a 67-28 lead with independents.

Could Mark Warner really win his race by a 62%-36% margin?  If so, that would probably be the greatest margin statewide in Virginia since...uh, ever?

Comments



Pretty consistent (Dan - 11/2/2008 10:34:20 PM)
These numbers are pretty consistent.  Of course, I doubt they are polling my friends in Arlington, of which many are cell phone voters.  My old roommate moved to New York City recently, hasn't yet become a New York City resident.  He submitted his absentee ballot for Obama, and guess what...has a cell phone and never gets polled.  


Many pollsters make an effort (Lowell - 11/2/2008 10:40:42 PM)
to contact cell phone users.  As usual, Nate Silver of 538 is on top of it.


And, of course, many do NOT make (Lowell - 11/2/2008 10:41:26 PM)
an effort to contact cell phone users.  I'd put a lot more stock in the ones that do the cell phones than those that don't...


Ground game (Arlington Mike - 11/2/2008 11:15:02 PM)
At this point, it's all about turning out voters on Election Day.

The Dems seem to be all over Northern Virginia, to the point that Arlington is sending volunteers to Prince William and Loudoun. Let's hope the enthusiasm and heavy contacting of voters turns into results on Tuesday!

In the grand scheme of things, a 51-46 win would be huge. That's a BIG win for Obama, in a state that was not close for Kerry in 2004. Big stuff. At this point, it's about winning, not margin, at least in Virginia.



Canvassing numbers over this weekend: (notjohnsmosby - 11/3/2008 12:50:26 AM)
About 18-20 canvassers PER PRECINCT in Fairfax.  It's down to the 3rd/4th attempt of "not homes".  It's safe to say that at this point, FCDC and Campaign for Change pretty much know the intentions of almost every voter in Fairfax Co.  Who's a Republican, who's a Democrat, who's still in the middle, who's going to vote, who's not.....it's a hell of a feat of organization to get this accomplished.  I conservatively guesstimate that just today, there were over 7,500 volunteers out and about just in Fairfax.  Probably more counting phone banking, my number is just canvassers, organizers, runners, office personnel, just working the field effort.  Throw in hundreds more phone bankers and we could probably call it an even 8,000 people.

Now, with door hangers everywhere tomorrow, 3-4 rounds of in-person flushing on Election Day, tons of live phone banking, and all volunteers.  Lots of volunteers from DC and other states but most just from here in Fairfax.  No paid canvassers like the Republicans are using, no paid phone banks.  People who live here and want to make a change all coming out and kicking some Republican butt.