I dont take Obama to 364
but I certainly have him winning.

and nationwide, I have it a point or two closer

As far as I'm concerned, this election is NOT over until it's over, the fat lady sings, and any other cliche you can think of. So please keep working like the race is tied, and we'll celebrate if and when we win on Tuesday night.  That is all. :)

So any extra margin is only going to happen if we work for it..... nothing is done until the vote is certified after the election in a couple weeks.....

Something struck me watching the TV coverage yesterday.... they constantly repeated a phrase that I've heard a lot lately from our Protect the Vote lawyers.... "don't accept a challenge of anyone's vote"

Get the voter to request to vote by "Affirmation" if at all possible and then as a last resort by at least "Provisional ballot"..... (Provisional ballots were at best a 50/50 proposition last time)

But no matter what, the voter should not accept anything as restricting them from voting if they are sure they deserve to.

What exactly is this?  In case they challenge my daughter or I, I want to be ready.

but it is something like, in the absence of proper identification, a voter who is on the roles, and claims to be the person on the roles and can recite the correct address can vote "by affirmation"

I dunno if that means provisional ballot or regular machine...

I am left wondering what would happen if later the same day a voter with proper ID shows up and the book says they've already voted.

I will make sure my daughter and I both have our driver licenses so this won't be a problem.

I'm psyched because that's exactly my map in the office pool!

because if Obama is winning that many, he almost certainly would also pick up 2nd CD in Nebraska -  remember that the Cornhuskers potentially can split EVs by Congressional District.

go to the CNN EV calculator map and you can adjust a slider
http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/20... for just those states.....

Maine will vote straight Obama, Nebraska will vote straight McCain.

For different reasons I expect both groups to go for Obama in far larger numbers than in the past.

Having said that; and I believe that the one district in NE will be amazingly close, I think that at the end of the day Obama will not win there.

When I hear Obama will begin buying ad time in UTAH, then I think we'll have a lock on it.  Until then.....

...but McCain is running robocalls in his home state of Arizona.

When you have to start worrying about your home state going for the opponent, you're in some trouble...

It all depends on who shows up and has the determination to vote.  I fear that some of our newer votes will get to the polls and leave if the wait is too long.  I also like to check fox news out during these times to see what it is doing.  The last 5 times I have looked today, there has been nothing but anti-Obama propaganda.  So much for fair and balanced.  

I now see Obama winning Nevada.  I see him winning 50 to 47 or possibly 51 to 46.  I am seeing a great deal of support in Northern Nevada, which is a swing district.  Bush won Northern Nevada by a decent margin in 2004, that neutralized the Vegas area, and enabled the very conservative rural Nevada to make the difference.  I think McCain will probably win the general area of Northern Nevada in 2008, but by a very small margin (51-48 or so).  Combined with the Vegas area, he will probably be down a net 30,000 to 40,000 votes.  That means the rural areas, which barely have 50,000 voters, will not close the gap.  Obama has put time and effort into rural Nevada by traveling to Elko twice.  

I think the map above is very good, but I think ND will vote for Obama by a decent margin, and GA, WV, and IN will be very, very close; and one or two of them may go for Obama as well.

I also think AK and HI will be much closer than people expect, possibly (a long shot I'll admit) both going to Obama by a very thin margin.

Huh?  The few polls I've seen there have him up by 30!

where Barack Obama was born, was by Rasmussen and had him up 41 points!  No, I don't think Hawaii will be close. :)

God forbid Obama isn't at 270 after California, but if he's only 4 votes away, we can assume that Obama won the election.  That's how sure I am that Hawaii will go for Obama: if we're at 269 because we saved PA but the only tossup state we win is Colorado, I think we can safely assume victory.

Speaking on PA, with Colorado, Nevada, Virginia and Ohio looking how they do, I'm pretty sure that a win in Pennsylvania on election night will 90% lock it all up.

What is wrong with me....

AK and AZ will be closer.

HI is full of sensible people shaking their heads in wonder that the last three elections were close at all...

It looks like the Obama campaign might make a late push to win Arizona.

Obama's senior aides are intrigued by several late polls that show a narrowing of the presidential contest in Arizona. Most recently, on Tuesday a Cronkite-Eight poll (named for Arizona State University's journalism school and the local PBS channel) showed the state a statistical tie, with the Arizona senator just 2 points ahead of Obama. That poll suggests Arizona is too close to call, with Obama making significant gains among women and independents.

The campaign is now seriously examining a late surge into the state. That may include ramping up TV advertising, on-the-ground staff or even deploying the candidate to stop there. Obama is scheduled to make a Western swing late this week, making an Arizona visit possible.

What the heck, if he's heading out West anyway...man, wouldn't it be sweet to win John McCain's home state? :)

I have family in Arizona who feel very disconnected because their state is so rarely a battleground.  It would be cool to get a visit even if brief and even if they don't quite make the win in their state.