The Roanoke Times endorsed Tom Perriello Sunday AS WELL AS Sam Rasoul.

The endorsement is a really good read

U.S. Rep. Virgil Goode, R-Rocky Mount, gives conservatism a bad name.

His nativist appeals to the worst instincts of some of his constituents reached a crescendo with his shameful rhetoric following the election of Keith Ellison, a Minnesota Muslim, to the House of Representatives:

"If American citizens don't wake up and adopt the Virgil Goode position on immigration, there will likely be many more Muslims elected to office and demanding the use of the Quran. ... I fear that in the next century we will have many more Muslims in the United States if we do not adopt the strict immigration policies that I believe are necessary to preserve the values and beliefs traditional to the United States."

That ugly and un-American sentiment reared its head again in a despicable campaign ad this fall that darkened an already unflattering photo of his challenger, Tom Perriello, to make him look foreign and menacing.

Perriello, a native of the 5th District, is neither.

He is an intelligent, articulate, caring individual who has done important work in Afghanistan and Darfur.

n/t

VA-05 is a Republican district at the federal level, but there are much more Republican districts already represented by Democrats, and there will be 5-10 upsets in less than a week that will happen in more Republican districts than VA-05. The PVI for VA-05 is R + 6 -- Republican, but in a Presidential year in which the national mood has switched from R + 3 (2004 results) to D + 7-10, VA-05 in theory becomes a tossup for a generic Democrat, and we already well know that there is nothing generic about Tom's candidacy, campaign, or team. All of VA-02, VA-05, and VA-10 are there to be won, it's just a question of which ones flip. VA-05 is the most uphill of the three, but I think Tom has run the best race out of our three Democratic challengers in those districts.

I think the better comparison is to the race lost in Arizona in 2006 by immigration fanatic J.D. Hayworth, who was expected to be in a tight race but never expected to lose.

The wild upsets/sleepers are in Idaho, Wyoming, and elsewhere -- blood red districts that should almost never be competitive, but are likely to flip Democratic now due to great candidates facing very bad opposition.  

I think its a "sleeper" race because even in Virginia the VA-05 race has been overshadowed by the VA-02, VA-10, and Presidential races. It may make good sense to us political geeks that Perriello is competitive, but its not on too many radars nationwide. But, maybe I'm wrong. I hope thats the case :)

Thats an interesting way to look at the PVI, but VA-05 would only be a toss-up if it was an open seat. Goode is a former Democrat, and my understanding is that he has a lot of old Democratic allies in the district.

Mitchell beating Hayworth was pretty sweet, and I think a great comparison to this race.

but I thought you WERE just talking about us poli-geeks, since the average Joe (prolly including that dumb plumber!) can't even name their own Congressman! :)

I also agree with your second paragraph -- I still believe that on balance the 5th is the toughest to win (of the competitive districts) because of Virgil's personal popularity and the tilt of the district, but I think Tom has run the best race possible down there to put himself in position to kick Virgil to the curb. Are there going to be any Obama-Goode voters? I sincerely doubt it.

I wish today were Election Day. I'm ready for the verdict.

Thinking about it, Tom also reminds me a lot of Larry Kissell down in NC-08. Larry barnstormed a blood-red district that was fed-up with the Republican incumbent. He lost the first cycle by 300-odd votes, but it looks like he'll win the seat convincingly this time. Tom and Larry are both total underdog grassroots candidates running creative campaigns that fit their districts, and its hard to think of two people I'd rather see in Congress.  

just am hoping the results aren't the same and that Tom doesn't require a second go of it to seal the deal.

Kissell, Charlie Brown, Eric Massa are all great grassroots candidates that have really worked their tails off for going on three or four years now to win these Republican-leaning districts (to say nothing of Gary Trauner in Wyoming!).

The three candidates I most want to see win on Nov. 4 that aren't currently leading in the polling averages are Judy, Tom, and Dr. Vic Wulsin in Ohio -- great people that would help restore peoples' faiths in a politics and government that works for the people writ large. Larry Joe Doherty, Debbie Cook, Russ Warner, Annette Taddeo, and Roy Carter are also really good folks running in tough districts that would be game-changers. If we win those races, then I will be partying long into the night (probably will be anyway, but I'll be much happier).  

when I've entered canvassing data at the Obama office in Martinsville I have seen a few "Obama-Warner-Goode" forms, but not many. (I even saw one that was Obama-GILMORE-Perriello; go figure!). I agree that Tom's numbers will likely not be far behind Obama's.

I guess Gilmore's got some relatives down there in VA-05, huh?

Tom is the 10th highest recipient of DCCC independent expenditures in the last 7 days, more than $576,000. They wouldn't be blowing this money on a race that's gone. It can be done.

Do you have a link to somewhere that info is compiled?

Neither is completely up to date, but when you add the $283,000 DCCC dropped on this race yesterday, it gets him up to 10th place.

Campaign Finance Institute

Swing State Project

Most people talk about Periello's efforts in Southside, but VA-05 is a huge district, with many rural counties.  Charlottesville-Albemarle is not, in fact, the northernmost end of VA-05, Greene County holds that distinction, and Greene is red country, giving Virgil Goode plenty of support in previous elections.  This year we have actual field officers assigned to Greene, and many volunteers, and there are high hopes to cut into Virgil's margin in this county. I append my report on Greene County, just as I posted it to Democratic Central two days ago:

            -=-=-

I have been canvassing in Greene County in recent weeks, in areas near Ruckersville and Stanardsville, and in rural areas of the Dyke and Swift Run precincts.  Greene is the northernmost county of Virginia's 5th Congressional District.  Greene has a reputation in VA-05 of being very red, roughly 2/3 Republican.  The Republican party organization there has been strong, active and outspoken for many years.  It would be easy for Democrats in such an environment to feel isolated, exposed and intimidated.  So, I (a resident of Walker Precinct in Charlottesville) decided to try to help them.  In fact, I actually made this decision two years ago -- I canvassed for Al Weed in areas around Ruckersville during the 2006 campaign.

Yesterday, Sun 10-26, Greene County Democrats gathered at a home on the main street in Stanardsville for a meet and greet and Periello rally from 3-6pm.  Dr. Vito Periello was present and spoke for Tom.  The turnout was wonderful, about 150 Democrats!  This was a great party building event for their county.  Today the combined campaign was calling those 150 people to sign them up for volunteer activities, calling and canvassing and assisting on election day.

I was at the party at its beginning at 3pm, but I decided that I really should go canvass a "turf" rather than partying.  The campaign divides each precinct of a county into areas to be canvassed.  Each area is called a "turf", as in "Turf 3". A canvass worker gets a manila envelope with a label like "Swift Run Turf 11".  My envelope contained 24 names at 21 addresses, on 6 pages, one page for each street of the turf with people to be canvassed.  My turf was roughly 3 miles southeast of Stanardsville, in the Swift Run precinct.

I spent about two hours knocking those 21 addresses, and returned to the party just before 6pm, and ate some of the remaining food. Here are the statistics for the 24 names:

Not-Home:   9
Refused:    1  (person refused to tell their preference)
Moved:      1
Obama:     12
Undecided:  1

Two of the Not-Home addresses had signs in their yards:
NH-Obama:   2
NH-McCain:  1

So, if I add the NH-Obama and Obama numbers I get 14 of 24, which is an astonishing fraction of the walk list -- instead of being at most one third Democratic supporters, our favorables were more than one half of the list.  As the walk progressed, I got more and more excited, because I could sense how blue this neighborhood was even before I counted up the marks on the sheets.  After all, this is Greene County, and I had not talked to even one McCain supporter!  How can I explain these numbers?  I can think of three possible explanations:

1) Luck -- a statistical outlier, just an accident.  Considering that my expectation would be about 6 out of 18 (the 15 whose preference I could determine plus the three yard sign people), the count of 14 is a rather large discrepancy!  I say that it would be rather improbable that I could have gotten this sample from a population that looked like the usual story for Greene County (2/3 Republican).

2) Special Turf -- maybe this neighborhood is the most blue turf in Greene County!?!  I saw nothing in the demographics that suggested to me that these people were not typical Greene County people.  They looked middle class, and I was fairly sure that many were natives of the County.  I wonder if anybody else has walked that particular turf before, or called it, and whether the statistics confirm how blue it is.  Note: there are many areas of Greene that are being walked and knocked by Democrats for the first time this year 2008.

3) That One -- maybe my surprising statistics are more general?  We know that the country is choosing Obama, and maybe a large fraction of Greene County people are so frustrated and disgusted that they will choose the Democrat this time?  I wonder whether other canvass and phone people are seeing a similar shift in the statistics in other areas.

In any case, I was greatly encouraged by my two hours of effort.  More generally, I see Obama signs on the roads of Greene County.  Yes, they are outnumbered by the McCain signs, but there are plenty enough Obama signs.  This is another encouraging fact, because it means that it is socially acceptable to put out an Obama sign in the County.  An amusing fact is that several times I have seen two adjacent houses with signs, one McCain and the other Obama, and no other houses in sight with signs; it can't be an accident.  :-)  Regarding yard sign policy:  campaign field officers are convinced that knocking doors is effective, but that yard signs are not effective.  Greene County Democrats disagree with this dogma, and I say that they are correct and the field officers are wrong: in an area like Greene County where Democrats are quite aware that they are in the minority, and where they are not sure that it is socially acceptable to identify themselves as a Democrat, yard signs are valuable morale-raising symbols.

Many of the people that I canvassed had clearly made a solid decision to vote for Obama, but were undecided on the Senate and House contests.   I got to try my persuasion skills in those cases.  In particular, Tom Periello has a name recognition problem, of course, so I concentrated on making a connection for these voters.  Because a number of voters in Greene have asked me whether Tom Periello is any relation to Dr. Vito Periello the pediatrician, I decided to mention the fact that Dr. Periello is known to many people in Greene as the beginning of my persuasion for Tom.  Incidentally, one Greene voter told me several weeks ago that she had been a patient of Vito Periello!  My closing argument for Warner and Periello is that for Obama to make the changes that we want him to make, he must have the votes in Congress.  I have yet to meet a Greene voter who didn't nod agreement at that assertion.

After knocking doors in Greene, I have come to believe that it is no longer as red as it is reputed to be.  I very much hope that my belief is confirmed on Tues 11-04.

If any readers who have canvassed in solid-blue Charlottesville-Albemarle feel the urge to test themselves in a hard-red area, I heartily encourage them to join the effort in Greene County.  In particular, you too can knock a turf in Greene County by coming to the Greene County Library (223 Main, Stanardsville) at the following times:

Sat 11-01  09:30am, noon, 3pm
Sun 11-02  09:30am, noon, 3pm
Mon 11-03  09:30am, noon, 3pm
Tue 11-04  09:30am, noon, 3pm (yes, election day)

If you plan to come at one of these times, or if you want to volunteer for other activities such as calling or poll watching, call Joel Gussman 540-908-2081.  Joel is the field officer for Greene and Louisa, and he operates out of a room on the second floor of our Rio Road combined campaign office.  

...at DailyKos a few weeks ago over yard signs. I agree with you; in red rural areas and small towns, yard signs do make a difference. We were late putting up signs this year, and usually haven't done so in years past.

This year, we were fairly late putting up our Perriello and Obama signs, but within a few days of doing so several more democratic signs showed up on our block. Turns out we all thought we were the only democrats on the street.