VA-02 Thelma Drake Lean Republican to Toss UpVA-05 Virgil Goode Likely Republican to Lean Republican
Also, check out Cook's analysis of these two districts after the "flip."
VA-02 Thelma Drake Lean Republican to Toss UpGOP Rep. Thelma Drake has hammered Democratic former diplomat Glenn Nye on his residence, pointing to a homestead exemption for a house he and his brother own in Washington, DC. But she has been unable to establish any sort of significant lead, and the Norfolk Virginian Pilot gave Nye a significant endorsement. After endorsing Drake in 2006, the newspaper criticized her as "among the most doctrinaire conservatives in Congress" this time.
Democratic Senate candidate Mark Warner's coattails are spooking Tidewater Republicans who worry that Drake has never really firmed up her base in the largest component of the district, Virginia Beach. This race should be considered a tossup once again.
VA-05 Virgil Goode Likely Republican to Lean Republican
...the Southside portions of the 5th CD are in economic shambles and Perriello is the first candidate who has ever advertised substantially against Goode. Perriello claims in his ads that Goode supports a 23 percent across-the-board sales tax, while Goode has taken to the air to lambast Perriello on illegal immigration and gay marriage.
To the extent that Obama wins Virginia by a large margin, his biggest gains over normal Democratic performance will be in suburbs and exurbs outside this district's boundaries. But Perriello is counting on a huge turnout on the part of African-Americans in Southside and college students in Charlottesville and Albemarle County, the only areas within the district Obama will win by an overwhelming margin.
Even if this district were tied at the presidential level, Goode could probably count on the support of more than a handful of Obama supporters in Southside. But Goode's old-school campaign tactics are causing some Republicans concern, and the DCCC is giving Perriello modest late help.
Goode has been so utterly ineffective and embarrassing. His position in an ever decreasing minority party will make him even more so. He isn't in touch with the economic values of most of the people in the 5th which is why you will hear little substance out of him. We can do this 5th!
Also, you must remember that we do not need ALL of those voters. We don't even need a majority of them to win (yes, it would be nice). Hopefully Perriello's message resonated with working and middle class voters in Southside. Hopefully enough of them will recognize that all the supposed "niceness" of Virgil doesn't make up for his record and won't do anything to help them out in the long run. Virgil has done little to nothing to ensure residents in the 5th have a job so why should we keep sending him to DC to have one that pays over 100K a year?
The 2nd District is still pretty bad for Statewide and National, but on local candidates, we're getting better. And remember, it wasn't long ago (eight years) that the second had Owen Pickett. How long has it been for the tenth?
I'll make a prediction right here: neither Nye nor Feder wins. BUT, I predict that Nye does better, and sets Thelma up for defeat in 2010, when no "top of the ticket" like Allen or McCain can save her.
Living in the area, I see the ads for Drake and they disgust me. While Nye has gone increasingly negative, I know he's a far more honorable and inteliigent person and I feel very strongly that just like in the 10th and the 5th, Virginia would be far, far better off with the challenger winning. I wish Mr. Nye the best.
So, if John McCain "saves" Thelma Drake, I'll slap myself.
I'll make a prediction right here, too: Drake and McCain will run about even in the 2nd, that might be 51%, might be 49% (hopefully the latter).
Side note: Obama has an office on the Eastern Shore, gotta love that.