But hey, this is a GREAT example of John McCain's awesome decision-making skills.  

Bring the popcorn...it's worth watching.

Pew sez, Obama 53 - McCain 38. It should be noted that Pew correctly predicted the final margin in 2004, with their final survey tagging it as Bush 51 - Kerry 48.

If that turns out to be true, and all these tracking polls are vastly undersampling Democrats and newly registered voters, then we're looking at a 400+ EV landslide.

One week to go!

Not to be ugly, but most commentators, when parsing these polls, always add a nasty little phrase that says something like "barring unforseen events." I take that to mean they are hedging their bets by expecting either  1) something from Osama bin Laden (a video purporting to support Barack, or an outright terrorist attack/attempt domestic or foreign) or 2) domestic violence against Obama. We all have our fingers crossed on that, and it probably should not be said aloud. I have so little respect remaining for Republicans that I wouldn't put it past the underbelly Repubs like Rove to see if they can't arrange at least number one. I believe any such event would, to be effective, have to occur at least three or four days before the voting, so our maximum risk may well be today and the next three days. Ugh.  

but I don't see how any 'bad' events are going to accrue to the benefit of McCain at this point -- voters now trust Obama more for his steadiness than they do McCain.

Plus, something like 20% to maybe as much as 30% (or more?) of the electorate will have voted by Nov. 4. These 'October surprises' seem to me to have much less chance of working with a month-long election cycle.

But you've seen a lot more of this ugly world than I have, Teddy, so I'll cross my fingers with you.

I saw a non-scientific poll in the Express this morning asking if readers thought the polls showing Obama leading were correct.  It was split just about even with half saying they think the polls are accurate and half not.  And the interesting thing is that it appears d(based on a few comments) the half that thinks the polls are wrong feel that the polls are overestimating Obama's lead.

Seems that a big chunk of people (about half in this survey) can't believe that Obama is winning by the margins the polls indicate.  That in itself would make an interesting study - why such a large number of people don't believe the polls.

Maybe because they're all over the place? Like today we have Obama leading anywhere from 3 points (GWU/Battleground) to 15 points (Pew). I think the best idea is to take the average from Pollster.com.  Right now, they have it at Obama 50.7%-McCain 43.7%, a 7-point lead nationally.  

But, when you have 10 polls and they all show someone is leading, and average out to X points ahead, then I tend to believe the person is likely X points ahead.

Now, back to the phones!

That's the beauty of the work Nate Silver's done over at fivethrityeight.com.

It's also important to remember that national polling numbers mean NOTHING.  It's all about the states and electoral votes.  It is mathematically possible to get less than 40% of the national vote and still win the election (so long as you get slimmest of majorities in the right states.

McCain is the diva who can't take advice ... or even has a clue.

McCain complains about "redistribution of wealth", yet opens his talks with "the government should buy up mortgages".

Make up your mind, John!

Palin should dump him.

to dump him, or so it appears as she mavericks off the reservation on her own hook. Ha, ha. McC got a little more of a maverick than he intended, never thinking her maverickhood might be used against him, her mentor---- but is that not what her entire political record shows? Suck up to the Powers, then knife them in the back after they've helped you: typical Palin. Hahaha.

The GOPs New Slogan. They will wear it with pride.