Absentee Voting "Off the Charts" in Virginia; 80% Turnout Goal in Arlington Within Reach!
By: Lowell
Published On: 10/23/2008 12:30:21 PM
The following analysis is from Arlington County Treasurer Frank O'Leary, who is deservedly famous for his election projections. The title, "Katy Bar the Door," is appropriate, as "Absentee voting has been off the charts throughout the state." Also, Arlington may very well reach its goal - or even surpass it - of 80% turnout this year. Very impressive, and very good news if you're a Barack Obama supporter! :)
Katy Bar the Door - Part Two
Registration
Increases in voter registration, since 2004, have been dramatic and slightly favor Northern Virginia (NOVA). As shown below, NOVA's registration has increased by 11.6 percent versus 11.0 percent for the rest of the State.
Perhaps, the greatest surprise is the super growth of Loudoun County, apparently reflecting its impressive population growth of nearly 18 percent since 2004.
Absentee Vote
Absentee voting has been off the charts throughout the state, which is not too surprising under the new relaxed rules for voting absentee and the publicity generated by the State Electoral Board, local Registrars, and the media. Yesterday, at 6:10 PM, I witnessed the longest line that has ever formed at Courthouse Plaza for any purpose. The line stretched the entire length of the building. Not surprising in that 995 voters cast their ballots in person. Another 622 voted by mail. This brings the total vote to 13,701 (through October 21), a figure that truly astounds when compared with prior years, as shown below.
Absentee Remaining
Year Through Votes Days
2008 10/21/08 13,701 14
2004 10/19/04 3,232
2000 10/24/00 2,666
1996 10/22/96 1,984
1992 10/20/92 2,381
If this pace continues, the final absentee vote could fall between 36,000 and 41,000! Let me caution, however, that this estimate may be wildly inflated as the prior rules no longer apply. Should it prove valid, however, than my best guess for total turnout is as follows.
Potential Turnout
Absentee Minimum Likely Maximum
39,000 117,800 120,450 123,100
Should this staggering voter turnout actually occur, it would reflect a turnout of between 78.9 and 82.4 percent of registered voters. A comparison with prior Presidential Years might prove instructive.
The percent of the registered voters turning out, since 1996, has been somewhat skewed (artificially inflated) by the Motor Voter Act and the routine addition to the voter roles of persons who have no intent to vote. My bet, however, is that voter interest has never been higher for a modern Presidential Election and a turnout in excess of 80 percent should be no surprise.
Sad to say, Virginia's Registrars may feel that their efforts to reduce the chaos of Election Day and long lines at the polls by encouraging absentee voting may not work as well as they hoped...
Hold on to your hats, looks like a wild ride ahead. I'll check back with you, next week.
Comments
Lowell-how were the absentee rules relaxed? (VA Breeze - 10/23/2008 1:23:06 PM)
Seem pretty restrictive compared to other states.
Good question (Lowell - 10/23/2008 2:52:30 PM)
I'll check and see what I can find out.
Here's what I found out. (Lowell - 10/24/2008 12:23:37 PM)
It used to be that you had to sign in blood that you would not be in town on Election Day. About five years ago, the Virginia law was relaxed to say that if you felt it probable that you would be out of town at any point on Election Day, you could vote absentee.
The Rules are more intimidating than functional ..... (Used2Bneutral - 10/23/2008 3:09:23 PM)
The Dems in Richmond tried to put a more universal set in place for early voting, but it was stopped twice so far by the Republicans..... (are they scared of a fair right to vote???)
If you go to early vote, they will give you the form to sign. There is almost always a category that covers your specific situation... As long as you are already registered.
If you are working the poles or the campaigns election day, no sweat... (its a job, maybe voluntary and un-paid, but it is a job that somebody has to do)
If you need to work that day and because of expected traffic or weather and your work hours are that you can't absolutely guarantee that you will have the opportunity to vote during the hours the poles are open, No Sweat (the rule says commute plus work hours equals or exceeds 11 hours.... that's easy with Virginia traffic)
If there is a chance your job may have you out-of-town or out of the area for an emergency and cause you to miss your opportunity to vote no matter how remote the chance, no sweat.....
You aren't cheating or committing fraud to take every chance you can to guarantee your ability to exercise your rights to vote...... and most of all there is nobody there that is going to challenge you.
Most of all, you are going to help the whole system this year, the lines on election day should be huge and that situation alone should motivate anybody who can to vote now and then help others vote on November 4th.
This is something... (ericy - 10/23/2008 4:08:25 PM)
That I would like to see fixed in the next Congress. First fix HAVA to prevent the games that Republicans have used to purge voter registrations, and secondly mandate some minimal level of no-fault early voting nationwide.
Final Registration Stats (uva08 - 10/23/2008 3:10:33 PM)
Does anyone know what the final numbers are by locality? I have seen the general state numbers and some news stories have reported specific precinct numbers, but I haven't been able to find them online at the SBE site.
Absentee voting (Mary I - 10/23/2008 6:05:09 PM)
I attempted to vote yesterday in The City of Fairfax. My reason was I was working the polls; not inside, but outside. I expect to be there from early morning until 7:00 pm or until the last person in line at 7:00pm votes.
I was told I could not vote yesterday. On election day, I am to watch the line and if there is a break in the line waiting to vote, I should get in line.
I also have a 94 year old mother in NY. Her healthcare provider told me this past Sunday that my mother is eating less and sleeping more. I have her medical POA. While I have always believed she will outlive either me or my checkbook, this is still a concern. I got instructions with respect to a medical emergency...so long as that emergency doesn't take place on Sunday, I should be ok.
I really think there is something wrong with this picture.
My "beef" is not with the registrar's office,but the law.
Early voting saturday (danduckwitz - 10/23/2008 6:28:11 PM)
Did they say you can not vote because your excuse was not valid or because they were not having early voting that day? My understanding was the city of fairfax only had in person absentee on this Saturday and next?
http://www.fairfaxva.gov/Regis...
Saturday In-Person Absentee Voting: October 25, 2008 and November 1, 2008 8:30am to 5pm
Final day for in-person absentee voting is November 1, 2008, 8:30 am to 5pm @ Sisson House, 10455 Armstrong Street
That is the exact reason, volunteering at the polls on election day, I gave and was able to vote in person absentee with in Fairfax County.
Absentee Voting (Mary I - 10/23/2008 6:57:55 PM)
I was told my reason was not valid. Absentee voters were voting the day I attempted to do so. In fact, a couple came in just as I was leaving. I also learned another had voted earlier due to a medical condition.
As I understand it, those who are working the polls inside in Fairfax County were told they had to vote early. I don't know what Fairfax County is doing with those who are working outside.
In any event, it is what it is in the City of Fairfax. Again, my beef isn't with the City's Registrar.
Early voting in Nevada (Dan - 10/23/2008 10:39:58 PM)
I voted early in Nevada. There's a lot of support for Obama here, even in Northern Nevada, which is more conservative than Las Vegas. I talked with two self-proclaimed Republicans today, one who voted for Obama already, and another who is planning to vote for Obama. Both of them voted for Republican Congressman Dean Heller. Obama is surging. However, we may see a lot of Republicans who want Obama to win, balance their vote by voting Republican in the House. It varies from district to district, but that looks to be the case in Nevada.