New Poll: Glenn Nye Within 5 Points of Thelma Drake (47%-42%)

M E M O R A N D U M

To:       Nye Campaign
From:   Bennett, Petts & Normington
Date:   October 16, 2008
Re:      VA-02 Survey Results

The following is a summary of findings from a telephone survey conducted among 400 likely voters in the Second Congressional District of Virginia.  Interviews were conducted October 14-15, 2008.  The sampling error for this survey is plus or minus 4.9 percentage points. Party Identification: 39% Dem, 13% Ind, 47% GOP.

FINDINGS

Challenger Glenn Nye remains in a strong position to defeat Thelma Drake. Specifically:

* With less than three weeks to go, Glenn Nye continues to grow his vote and trails by just five points, 42%-47%.

Now, Nye leads 47-34% among Independents, the critical group of swing voters.

* Nye has also improved his name identification to 69%.

Additionally, perceptions of Drake have grown even worse since September and remain far below the critical 50% for an incumbent:

* A majority now Give Drake a negative job rating-51% rate Drake's performance as a member of Congress as "only fair" or "poor" while just 40% rate her performance as only "excellent" or "good."  Among Independents, her job rating is even lower at 29%-59%.

* Drake's favorable rating is also low.  She has a favorable rating of just 42% positive and 35% negative.  In May, her favorable rating was 48%-29%.

Glenn Nye's message - he is an independent voice for Hampton Roads who has volunteered to serve in conflict zones in Afghanistan, Kosovo and Iraq - is clearly resonating with voters.  Moreover, Drake's personal attacks have fallen flat.

By the way, just a little side note, but I thought it was interesting to note that Drake's top three supporters on her third quarter financial report were the GOP ($58,750), the oil industry ($24,550), and the health care industry ($21,425). That might help explain Drake's votes against renewable power and quality health care for all Americans, among other things...

Comments