New CNU Virginia Poll: Obama 49%-McCain 43%

By: Lowell
Published On: 10/16/2008 2:43:05 PM

After its last, widely-ridiculed debacle, you might be wondering why I'd ever link to another poll by the CNU Center for Public Policy. Recall that last time, these guys assumed, among other things, that voters age 18 to 29 would make up just 3% of the electorate, when in 2004 they made up 17% (and are likely to be higher this time around). Also recall that CNU last poll assumed that African Americans would make up less than 10% of the vote, when in 2004 they accounted for 21%.  In other words, that poll was completely worthless.

But now, it's a new day, and CNU appears to have redeemed itself! :)  In all seriousness, it looks like CNU's latest poll uses more reasonable assumptions this time around: 12.4% turnout among 18-29 year olds (still way too low, but better than a 3% assumption!) and 20% African American turnout (probably still a bit low, but better than last time). Still, there are problems with this poll, particularly the assumptions that women will make up 58% of the electorate (that seems too high by about 5 or 6 points) and also that only 2.9% of the electorate "did not finish high school." Can that possibly be right?  Is Virginia like the best educated state in the nation or what? :)

Anyway, the bottom line is that the screwups on the "internals" aren't as bad as last time around, and they appear to counterbalance each other (too high a percentage of women, too low of young people and African Americans). That's why I think this poll's bottom line results, Obama 49%-McCain 43%, actually could make sense.  Plus, there's the fact that this poll is more in line with other polls of Virginia.  Anyway, take it for what it's worth...and GOTV!!!

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