Rasmussen: Obama Leading in FL, MO, OH and....VA
By: Lowell
Published On: 10/13/2008 6:58:43 PM
These poll results look pretty good to me, although still too close for comfort.
Florida: Obama 51%-McCain 46%
Missouri: Obama 50%-McCain 47%
Ohio: Obama 49%-McCain 47%
Virginia: Obama 50%-McCain 47%
Also, Rasmussen finds that Obama and McCain are tied, 48% each, in North Carolina. Rasmussen notes that "all five of these states were carried by George W. Bush in Election 2004."
As far as Virginia is concerned, Rasmussen writes:
In Virginia, a state that no Democrat has won since 1964, Obama earns 50% support for the third straight week while McCain is at 47%. Those results are essentially unchanged from each of the past two weeks.
Overall, Real Clear Politics has Obama with a 50.6%-44.1% (6.5-point) lead over McCain in Virginia. Pretty good, but far from a done deal by any means...so keep working!
Comments
Increase in Virginia (DanG - 10/13/2008 7:50:41 PM)
Obama was up 2, now he's up 3. Average on RCP went up .2 percent. So, in general, a gain for us. And Missouri is looking more and more like it's slipping into our column. And those are damn good numbers for Florida.
The state that concerns me there is Ohio. And North Carolina would be nice, but for us to have the kind of year where North Carolina goes blue, we're gonna win by well over 300.
Here's where we are right now (Lowell - 10/13/2008 7:54:14 PM)
according to
Chris Bowers at OpenLeft. That's Obama 329-McCain 169 EV's (with 40 tossup EV's). Also note that "dark blue" states - Obama leads of 7 percentage points or more - add up to 280 EV's, more than what Obama needs to win the election.
Virginia shouldn't be dark blue (DanG - 10/13/2008 8:00:29 PM)
But New Mexico should. Yeah, the polls say 5-6 points. But Hispanics are breaking HEAVILY for Obama, and remember how many Hispanics were reigstered in the primary? Brace yourselves, people, the sleeping giant of politics might awake! Heavy Hispanic turn-out could seal the deal in New Mexico, Colorado, and Nevada.
Why aren't people talking about that?
Steady as she goes for Rasmussen (Ron1 - 10/13/2008 8:45:43 PM)
They've been pretty consistent for 2 weeks now. The other recent polling (PPP, Suffolk, CNN, SUSA) has also been pretty consistent at O + 8-10. It's probably a likely voter model deal.
I think we could well win by 8 or 10 points, but 4-6 seems more realistic. I guess we'll see in 3 weeks and a day.
It will be very difficult for McCain to win Virginia. At this point, I can't see it happening.
Rasmussen Poll (legacyofmarshall - 10/13/2008 10:08:22 PM)
I was part of that, they called on Sunday. It was fun!