Interesting...it looks like Bush has flip-flopped again, this time on the violent protests over cartoons depicting the prophet Muhammed with a turban shaped like a bomb, etc. Bush, Condi, and Company are now "condemn[ing] the violent response...and accus[ing] Iran and Syria of exploiting the international controversy to incite unrest and protests in the Middle East." According to the Washington Post, this "highlighted a shift in White House strategy to focusing on the killings and destruction during Muslim protests in several nations -- in contrast to earlier statements that included criticism of the provocative drawings." In other words, the White House - like governments all over the world - is struggling to figure out what to do about this situation before it escalates into all-out culture war between the West and the Muslim world.Unfortunately, according to the President of Stratfor.com, it may be too late. According to George Friedman, in an analysis published Wednesday called "The Cartoon Backlash: Redefining Alignments:"
The explosion in the Muslim world over the publication of 12 cartoons by a minor Danish newspaper -- cartoons that first appeared back in September -- has, remarkably, redefined the geopolitical matrix of the U.S.-jihadist war. Or, to be more precise, it has set in motion something that appears to be redefining that matrix. We do not mean here simply a clash of civilizations, although that is undoubtedly part of it. Rather, we mean that alignments within the Islamic world and within the West appear to be in flux in some very important ways.[...]
...what is important is this: The controversy over the cartoons involves issues so fundamental to the two sides that neither can give in. The Muslims cannot accept visual satire involving the Prophet. Nor can the Europeans accept that Muslims can, using the threat of force, dictate what can be published. Core values are at stake, and that translates into geopolitics.
[...]
One of the primary features of the U.S.-jihadist war has been that each side has tried to divide the other along a pre-existing fault line. For the United States, in both Afghanistan and Iraq, the manipulation of Sunni-Shiite tensions has been evident. For the jihadists, and even more for non-jihadist Muslims caught up in the war, the tension between the United States and Europe has been a critical fault line to manipulate. It is significant, then, that the cartoon affair threatens to overwhelm both the Euro-American split and the Sunni-Shiite split. It is, paradoxically, an affair that unifies as well as divides.
Fascinating. So now what? According to Friedman, there are "clear beneficiaries" to this situation:
...One is the United States: The cartoon affair is serving to further narrow the rift between the Bush administration's view of the Islamic world and that of many Europeans...The other beneficiary is Iran. As Iran moves toward a confrontation with the United States over nuclear weapons, this helps to rally the Muslim world to its side: Iran wants to be viewed as the defender of Islam, and Sunnis who have raised questions about its flirtations with the United States in Iraq are now seeing Iran as the leader in outrage against Europe.The cartoons have changed the dynamics both within Europe and the Islamic world, and between them. That is not to say the furor will not die down in due course, but it will take a long time for the bad feelings to dissipate. This has created a serious barrier between moderate Muslims and Europeans who were opposed to the United States. They were the ones most likely to be willing to collaborate, and the current uproar makes that collaboration much more difficult.
In other words, we've got a situation here that can be exploited, and is being exploited, by radical elements. On the other hand, there is genuine anger by millions of Muslims at the depiction of their Prophet in this way. On the OTHER hand (how many hands do we have here?!?), the cartoons were not published by Western governments, but by a free press outside of government control (unlike in much of the Muslim world, by the way).
Simultaneously, there are frantic efforts by numerous governments to containt the damage. As Friedman concludes, "It's hard to believe that a few cartoons could be that significant, but these are."
The question is, will this blow over or is it going to continue to escalate? Do you believe this is an inherent clash of cultures, or just a temporary aberration? Discuss amongst yourselves! ;)