October 12, 2008 HOUSE RACE UPDATE - Democrats will pick up a net of 25 seats

Below is an overview of all the critical seats of contention in 2008.  The Democrats have 11 seats that are clearly vulnerable, while the Republicans appear to have 47 that are clearly vulnerable.  I predict that the Republicans will lose 28 seats and the Democrats will lose 3 seats.  That would give the Democrats a net gain of 25 seats, and give them a 87 seat majority of 261-174.

Below the flip is a list of key races in 2008.
Leaning to Likely Democratic Pick ups of GOP held seats (10)
Alaska at large (Young) - Sarah Palin will not extend a life line to ethically-challenged Congressman Don Young who defeated her beloved Lt. Governor in the Republican primary.  The Republican incumbent who has served for 35 years, is engulfed in ethical issues and challenges that had him far behind in the polls against the Democrats for months.  Despite these issues, Republican voters in Alaska chose him over Lt. Governor Sean Parnell by roughly 300 votes.  Young now faces Ethan Berkowitz, former leader of the Democrats in the Alaska legislature. From personal experience, I know Ethan to be very energetic and articulate and someone who can win despite a huge gap in Democratic registration.  

Arizona 01 (Open Seat) - Rick Renzi's retirement opens up this seat, Arizona's largest geographically, which hosted a worthwhile challenge by Ellen Simon in 2006 against the incumbent Republican. Renzi's indictment makes it even tougher for the Republican candidate, Sydney Ann Hay, the State Mining Association Executive Director.  The Democrat is state legislator Ann Kirkpatrick, a woman who speaks fluent Navajo and who, unlike Ellen Simon in 2006, has wide support and name recognition throughout the district.  

Colorado 04 (Musgrave) - Musgrave pulled out a 3-point victory in 2006 and this seat remains up for grabs in a district covering Eastern Colorado and Fort Collins.  Betsy Markey, Musgrave's 2008 opponent had a poll come out recently putting her ahead by 7 points.  She has been campaigning since the fall of 2007 and has racked up impressive fundraising numbers.  Polls have been favorable, unlike Musgrave who is sliding fast.  Although the Eastern plains are very conservative, Markey is actually favored.

Illinois 11 (Open Seat) - Jerry Weller managed a 10 point victory in 2006, but his retirement opens up this key swing district in north-central Illinois big time for the Democrats.  Debbie Halvorson, the Majority Leader of the Illinois State Senate will be the Democrat favored to win.  Her Republican challenger has far less name recognition and will have little chance to stop this seat from changing Party hands.  

Michigan 07 (Walberg) - As a freshman Republican already having trouble with the press in this southern Michigan district, Walberg is now far more vulnerable than when he ran the first time.  His opponent is State Senate Minority Leader Mark Schauer, a much stronger and well-financed Democratic challenger than he had in 2008.  The race is close, but Schauer is leading the race.

New York 13 (Open Seat) - With a DUI and other issues plaguing him, the only Republican serving a New York City district has retired.  Vito Fossella was likely a strong candidate for re-election if he didn't slip, but that is no longer the case.  The Democratic candidate is New York City councilman Mike McMahon.  The Republican candidate is former assemblyman Robert Straniere.  McMahon is favored to win.

New York 25 (Open Seat) - This was a tight race in 2006 in this Democratic-leaning district. With Republican Jim Walsh retiring, 2006 challenger Dan Maffei has become a huge favorite to win this district covering Syracuse.  The Republican he has to beat is Dale Sweetland, a farmer and former county legislature chair.  Maffei has a big lead in the polls.

Ohio 15 (Open Seat) - Deborah Pryce eked out a 1,000 vote victory in 2006 in this district covering parts of Columbus and its western suburbs.  Her retirement leaves the GOP in hot water to defend this seat with Republican State Senator Steve Stivers facing Pryce's 2006 challenger, Franklin County Commissioner Mary Jo Kilroy.  

Ohio 16 (Open Seat) - Due to the retirement of Ralph Regula, this northern Ohio seat is open for the first time in over three decades.  State Senator and Air Force Reserve Major John Boccieri is the Democrat facing Republican State Senator Kirk Schuring.  Boccieri has a big lead.

Virginia 11 (Open Seat) - Tom Davis' retirement opens the door for the Democratic takeover many have been waiting for in Fairfax and throughout the DC suburbs that make up Virginia's 11th district.  Tim Kaine won big here in 2005 in the Governor's race, and Jim Webb won big here in the Senate race in 2006.  The Democrats have a high profile candidate in moderate Democrat Gerry Connolly, who faces Republican businessman, Keith Fimian.  Gerry Connolly has strong name recognition in the district that makes him formidable against any Republican.  This race is a likely Democratic victory.  

Expect eight Republican seats from this group to become Democratic seats

Toss-up Seats - GOP held seats (22)
Alabama 02 (Open Seat) - Although a red district, the retirement of Terry Everett and emergence of Montgomery Mayor Bobby Bright as the Democratic candidate has created a real buzz in this southeastern Alabama district.  Bobby Bright faces State Representative Jay Love.  The polls have been all over the place.  

California 04 (Open Seat) - With an ongoing FBI investigation of he and his wife, John Doolittle retired, fearing a loss in this heavily Republican District in northeastern California.  Challenger Charlie Brown got close to defeating Doolittle in 2006, and is holding up well against Republican State Senator Tom McClintock.  McClintock is a formidable opponent here, although the face that he relocated from Southern California has been a sour note for some conservatives who want one of their own representing them instead of a Southern Californian.

Connecticut 04 (Shays) - Chris Shays had threatened to retire if not given a ranking committee assignment.  At this point, however, he is running full throttle.  He faces Greenwich Democratic chair Jim Himes from my hometown, who is the latest in a long-line of Democrats who have been locked in close races to knock out this long-time moderate Republican.  Still, Shays has faced close races for the last few cycles, and emerged victorious.  It will simply be a numbers game this time out.  

Florida 08 (Keller) - This seat was more competitive in 2006 than many expected, and despite being located in Central Florida, away from Democratic strongholds.  Keller faces Attorney & Businessman Alan Grayson.  This race is expected to be very close, although it hasn't yet gotten a lot of coverage.

Florida 24 (Feeney) - As an ethically challenged Republican, Tom Feeney is a clear target in 2008.  He received 58% of the vote in 2006, in a race that was pretty much ignored in Florida's eastern coast.  In 2006, Feeney faced a man who accused him of fixing his first election.  Feeney was one of the characters featured in the HBO movie "Recount" about the 2000 Presidential Election, when he was the incoming Speaker of Florida House.  His current opponent is former State Representative Suzanne Kosmas, who is much stronger than his opponent in 2006.  If Obama wins Florida and performs well in this district, he can very possibly push Kosmas into office.

Illinois 10 (Kirk) - Moderate Republican Mark Kirk survived in this Democratic majority district in 2006 in the Chicago suburbs, but he remains vulnerable in 2008, and faces Dan Seals, his challenger in 2006.  Kirk remains well-liked in his district and has been a strong fundraiser.  Yet, this year is a tough won for Republicans, and Kirk may struggle to get enough down ticket votes.

Louisiana 04 (Open Seat) - With Republican Jim McCrery retiring, this seat is a compelling pick-up opportunity for Democrats in this emerging swing district in Western Louisiana.  Hurricane Gustav delayed the primary until October 4th, and the Republican primary was so close, they have to have a run-off.  Democrat Paul Carmouche, a district attorney won the Democratic primary, but with less than 50% of the vote.  So, he'll face a run off.  The run-off takes place on November 4th.  So, Democrats will have to wait until December 6th for a general election.  Carmouche looks strong and can win this battle.  The race will probably be less impacted by the Presidential race, which may favor the Democrats since this is a more conservative district.  Still, the race is a toss-up.

Maryland 01 (Open).  Congressman Wayne Gilchrest lost his own primary to State Senator Andy Harris leaving an open seat in Eastern Maryland.  Once a Republican stronghold, Democratic registration has grown significantly.  Now Gilchrest has endorsed the Democratic candidate, Queen Anne County State's Attorney Frank Kratovil.  This race has become quite vulnerable for Republicans.

Michigan 09 (Knollenberg) - Joe Knollenberg's 6-point victory was enough to convince Democrats to spend some real money in this southeastern Michigan district in 2008. It appears like they made the right decision.  Former State Lottery Commissioner and Fmr. State Senator Gary Peters is the Democratic challenger in 2008.  With the economic woes of Michigan front and center, Republicans in the state are ripe for the picking.  Interestingly, both candidates will share the ballot an Independent by the name of Jack Kevorkian; Hopefully you know who that is, because I am not going to bother explaining it if you don't.

Minnesota 03 (Open Seat) - With the retirement of popular GOP incumbent Jim Ramstad, this swing district in the Minneapolis suburbs becomes a potential pick up for the Democrats.  Iraq War veteran Ashwin Madia is running a spirited campaign against Republican state representative Erik Paulsen.  Madia has great youth appeal, and a great back story.  He seems to be shining right now, yet the race is still a toss-up.

Nevada 03 (Porter) - Every two years this Southern Nevada district seems to have more Democrats move into town.  Porter barely won last time, and has to convince a new round of voters that he is their best representative.  He is having trouble defending against 2006 Democratic Gubernatorial candidate Dana Titus who won this district in her Gubernatorial effort in 2006.  

New Jersey 03 (Open Seat) - While this was not the closest race in 2006, NJ-03 remains a swing district in south-central New Jersey.  The retirement of Jim Saxton provides a great opportunity for a Democrat pick-up by this year's Democratic candidate, State Senator John Adler.  He is facing Medford Township Councilman Chris Myers, who has kept the race close, even in his favor, despite a huge cash disadvantage.

New Jersey 07 (Open Seat) - Republican Rep. Mike Ferguson barely won re-election in 2006, and with his retirement, this seat became wide open for the Democrats to take it over.  The Democrat is 2006 challenger, State Assemblywoman Linda Stender.  The Republican is Leonard Lance, the Fmr. State Senate Minority Leader.  Lance is a strong candidate, and the race will be close no matter who wins.

New Mexico 01 (Open Seat) - The Democrats have a good chance to take this seat which they almost won in 2006. Albuquerque Councilor Martin Heinrich is facing off against Republican Bernalillo County Sheriff & Ex-State Secretary of Public Safety, Darren White.  This could go either way, but Obama's strength in New Mexico is good news for Heinrich.

New Mexico 02 (Open Seat) - Rural New Mexico has generally expected to be a safe bet for Republicans to send representatives for Congress.  With the current representative of this district, Steve Pearce running for Senate, it would seem natural for Republican and former candidate Ed Tinsley to walk away with the seat.  But wait...the Democrats haven't given up that easily.  With Pearce's numbers still weak in the Senate race against Tom Udall and Obama's numbers strong in the state, Democrat Harry Teague, the former Lea County Commissioner, is poised for an upset.

New York 29 (Kuhl) - Randy Kuhl has had close races in the last two elections, even in rural southwest New York State.  He is struggling in the polls against his 2006 opponent, Navy Veteran Eric Massa, whom he beat that year by only 6,000 votes.  

North Carolina 08 (Hayes) - In 2006, Robin Hayes struggled to keep his seat east of Charlotte, winning by only 329 votes against a relatively unknown challenger, Larry Kissell.  He faces Kissell in 2008 in what is again a close race.  

Ohio 01 (Chabot) - Despite a worthwhile effort by the Democrats in 2006, Chabot's 6-point victory showed that beating him would be tough in this district in Ohio's southwestern corner.  However, in 2008 he faces a much stronger challenger in minority whip of the Ohio state House, Steve Driehaus.  Chabot may also struggle with his African-American constituents who make up over a quarter of the district's population.  

Pennsylvania 03 (English) - Lake Erie Arboretum Director Kathy Dahlkemper appears more formidable than many believed.  In what may be a sleeper race, Phil English will have to work hard to defend his seat in northwestern Pennsylvania, especially after receiving only 53% of the vote in 2006 in a race that received little attention.  

Virginia 02 (Drake) - Despite losing in the polls with only a few weeks remaining until election day, Thelma Drake was able to keep her seat in southeastern Virginia by pulling out a decades old scandal on Democratic challenger Phil Kellam.  The Democrats have an even stronger candidate facing her in 2008 in former diplomat Glenn Nye.  Thelma Drake was exposed during the tough 2006 contest and will again have to work hard to retain her seat.  Obama will help Nye in this district, which is heavily African-American.

Washington 08 (Reichert) - A tight race in 2006 is tight again in 2008 in this Democratic-leaning district in suburban Seattle.  2006 candidate Darcy Burner has raised a great deal of money, and has a strong following not just in her district, but nationwide.  Polls still show her behind, but expect her to keep it close and benefit from the Presidential turnout.

Wyoming at-large (Open Seat) - The Republicans are clearly better off without Barbara Cubin running, since she only won by 1,000 votes in 2006 in this very conservative state.  However, Gary Trauner ran a strong campaign in 2006, and is still a tough challenge for the Republican's candidate, Cynthia Lummis, the former state treasurer and state lands director.  

Expect fourteen Republican seats from this group to become Democratic seats.  The reason it is not 50/50 is that in a high-turnout year, toss-ups will trend towards the victor party.  Thus, 60-65% of toss-ups would go to the Democrats.

Leaning to Likely GOP - possible Democratic takeover (15)
Arizona 03 (Shadegg) - John Shadegg has become a man with a target on his back.  Ethically challenged and in the heart of McCain country, the Democrats see a chance to force Republicans to spend big in places they shouldn't have to.  Attorney Bob Lord is getting strong support from the DCCC for this effort north of Phoenix.

Florida 13 (Buchanan) - Katherine Harris' old seat became a battleground when she left to run her hilariously terrible Senate race in 2006.  Democrat Christine Jennings faced off with Republican Vern Buchanan in what became one of the closest House races in the country.  Jennings lost by only 369 votes, and afterwards raised questions about accurate vote-counting.  Will this coastal district in West Florida be as close this time?  That remains to be seen.  However, you cannot dismiss a race that close, and assume Vern Buchanan will have an easier time in 2008, even though indications are that he will hold on to his seat.

Florida 21 (Lincoln Diaz-Balart) - In this south Florida district east of Miami, Lincoln Diaz-Balart beat his Democratic challenger by 19 points in 2006, but outspent him 58-1.  This time he will have a stronger challenge in former Hialeah Mayor, Raul Martinez, who has been polling strongly.  

Florida 25 (Mario Diaz-Balart)...Like his younger brother, Mario Diaz-Balart faces a tough challenge in 2008 with Miami-Dade County Democratic Chair & Political Consultant Joe Garcia running as the Democratic candidate.  Mario Diaz-Balart won this district on the southern tip of Florida by 17 points in 2006.  Republicans still outnumber Democrats here, but that does not guarantee a victory for the Republicans this time.

Idaho 01 (Sali) - Sali angered a lot of Republicans in his time in the Idaho legislature, but still won this seat by five points in 2006.  Sali ran for the seat after Republican Butch Otter retired to run for Governor.  Butch Otter remains reluctant to support Sali, who will have to go it alone once again, trusting that Idahoans simply won't vote for a Democrat no matter who is running.  Businessman and attorney Walt Minnick has taken on the Democratic mantle and is vying for the seat.  

Kentucky 02 (Open) - Ron Lewis' retirement opened up this strongly Republican seat, but with little fanfare.  That is until State Senator David Boswell emerged as the Democratic candidate, and the Republicans drew a much weaker opponent in Brett Guthrie.  This race is now a vulnerable one for the Republicans that they did not think they would have to defend.

Minnesota 02 (Kline) - Another Minnesota race that has been off the radar has heated up. South of the twin cities, the 2nd district is a swing district.  Republican John Kline was challenged strongly in 2006, until he exposed his opponent for some ethical issues.  He faces a stronger challenger in 2008 in Steve Sarvi.  Sarvi has strong ties to the district as the current city manager of Victoria and the former Mayor of Watertown.

Missouri 06 (Graves) - This seat in Missouri's Northwest corner has become a unique pick-up opportunity with the Democrats running former Kansas City Mayor Kay Barnes.  Sam Graves ran a commercial with Nancy Pelosi, techno music, and what he intended to look like people from the gay community of San Francisco dancing in leather.  Barnes countered with a commercial about economic issues claiming that Graves only ran the commercial because had no record to stand on.  Will this commercial blowing up in the NRCC's face squelch future Republican attempts to scare voters with gay marriage and the word 'liberal' or will they too have to take on a more populist message?

Missouri 09 (Open Seat) - Another open seat has been created by Kenny Hulshof running for Governor.  Although this district in northeastern Missouri is conservative, it has become quite competitive.  State Rep Judy Baker won a heavily contested Democratic primary and one poll had her leading the Republican, former State Tourism Director, Blaine Luetkemeyer.  Yet recent polls have shown her behind.  Obama may win Missouri and that means he will help Democrats throughout the state, even in rural areas.

Nevada 02 (Heller) - Dean Heller's 6 point victory in 2006 was strong, but it does not change the fact that growth in Northern Nevada will keep this a swing seat in 2008.  Heller again faces his 2006 opponent, Jill Derby, the former head of the Nevada Democratic Party.  It has been a brutal ad war so far.  Yet Heller seems to have the edge.

New York 26 (Open Seat) - Tom Reynolds retirement offers a strong pick-up opportunity for the Democrats in Western New York State.  Republican State Senator George Maziarz appeared to be a strong candidate to keep this seat in GOP hands, but he decided not to run.  The Republican candidate is instead businessman Chris Lee.  The Democrats thought they would be running Iraq war veteran, Jon Powers, until he lost in the primary to Retired Attorney & Environmental Activist Alice Kryzan.  Kryzan changes the tone of the race from one about Iraq to one more likely about local issues.
The race has shifted from one of the hottest in the country to one with less buzz.  But this is still a close race, as Kryzan has proven to be a scrappy campaigner.  Powers has stayed in the race, which has dampened Kryzan's hopes a little bit.  

Ohio 02 (Schmidt) - Jean Schmidt faces Victoria Wulsin once again in 2008.  This is turning out to be another horse race in this conservative southern Ohio district.  Jean Schmidt has a serious problem with likeability, which is why she has struggled in a district that Republicans seemingly shouldn't have any trouble with.

Pennsylvania 15 (Dent) - A Democratic leaning district that voted for Kerry in 2004, Pennsylvania's Lehigh Valley has become a true battleground.  Charlie Dent held onto his seat in 2006, but turnout, particularly from the many college students in this district puts him in serious jeopardy.  His challenger is Sam Bennett, the Chair of the Allentown Democratic Party.  

Virginia 05 (Goode) - Virginia's 5th district has been a battleground during the last few election cycles. Yet Republican Virgil Goode had gotten away with easy victories in his last two elections.  Goode isn't only endangered due to ethical challenges.  He also has a propensity to put his foot in his mouth.  It appears to finally be catching up to him.  He has an added problem of facing a well-financed opponent, Tom Perriello.  Perriello is an attorney with a compelling professional bio, including efforts to broker peace in Liberia and other African nations.  This race should be interesting, although Goode still has the advantage.  If Obama wins this district, he may take Perriello with him.

Virginia 10 (Wolf) - Despite a strong victory in 2006, Frank Wolf has a district in Northern Virginia that is trending more and more Democratic.  Facing his 2006 opponent, Georgetown Professor, Judy Feder, is proving more difficult this time.  With Obama surging in Virginia polls, this puts this race in play.  Judy Feder is fundraising well, and advertising hard.  This will be an interesting race down the stretch.

Expect five Republican seats from this group to become Democratic seats

10 Potential Democratic pick-ups of GOP seats to watch
Illinois 13 (Biggert)
Indiana 03 (Souder)
Minnesota 06 (Bachmann)
Nebraska 02 (Terry)
Ohio 07 (Open Seat)
Ohio 14 (LaTourette)
Pennsylvania 18 (Murphy)
Texas 07 (Culberson)
Texas 10 (McCaul)
West Virginia (Capito)

Expect one Republican seat from this group to become a Democratic seat

Leaning to Likely Republican Pick ups of Democrat held seats (0)
There are no seats that Democrats hold that are leaning Republican.

Toss-up Seats - Democrat held seats (4)
Alabama 05 (Open) - The retirement of Bud Cramer in this very "red" district encompassing the northern part of Alabama has created a strong pick up opportunity for the GOP.  The Democrats are running state senator Parker Griffith to be Cramer's successor.  The Republicans will run businessman Wayne Parker.  This race is very close.
Florida 16 (Mahoney) - Tim Mahoney is fortunate that he isn't facing a big name Republican in 2008, but this remains a tough district for Democrats. Attorney & Army Veteran Tom Rooney won a crowded and bitter August 26th Republican primary.  This race remains a toss-up, although Mahoney is holding strong in the polls.

Louisiana 06 (Open) - On May 3rd, Democratic State Representative Don Cazayoux won the Special Election and took this seat from the Republicans.  He now faces State Senator Bill Cassidy.  This seat is the Republican's best chance to get back a seat they lost earlier in 2008, especially with African American State Rep. Michael Jackson as a third party candidate, which will cut into Cazayoux's share of the African-American vote.  

Pennsylvania 11 (Kanjorski) - While not a competitive seat in the last few elections, the decision by Hazelton Mayor Lou Barletta to run for this seat has resulted in a close race in northeastern Pennsylvania.  At present Paul Kanjorski is the only multi-term incumbent Democrat losing consistently in the polls.  With the trends of victory towards Obama, this will be tough for the GOP to win.  However, right now it is anybody's guess whether Kanjorski can hold on.

Texas 22 (Lampson) - Lampson had a lot on his side in 2006 in Tom Delay's old seat south of Houston.  In 2008, former aide to Senator Phil Gramm; US Navy Reserve Officer Pete Olson will be the Republican challenger.  The race remains close despite the tremendous Republican registration advantage.

Expect two Democratic seats from this group to become Republican seats

Leaning to Likely Democrat - possible Republican takeover (7)
California 11 (McNerney) - Richard Pombo's defeat in 2006 appeared to be a great step for this district east of San Francisco, but its conservative voters may still change their minds.  McNerney is facing a reasonably strong challenger in 2008 against Former State Assemblyman Dean Andal.  This race is likely a Democratic hold at this point.

Georgia 08 (Marshall) - Jim Marshall faced a tough contest in this conservative central Georgia district in 2006.  He is facing another tough challenge in 2008 against his Retired Air Force Major General Rick Goddard.  

Kansas 02 (Boyda) - Was Boyda's victory in 2006 a fling for moderate-conservative voters, or will it be a lasting relationship?  She then beat incumbent Congressman and former champion miler Jim Ryun.  The conservative right wing Ryun lost the GOP primary to moderate state treasurer Lynn Jenkins.   This district covers most of the Eastern Kansas border with Missouri, with the exception of Kansas City, Kansas and part of the college town of Lawrence.

Mississippi 01 (Childers) - Travis Childers victory over Greg Davis on May 13th made this the 3rd Republican Congressional loss in 2008.  This remains a heavily GOP district, but after two successful victories, the 2nd by 8 points, Childers chances to retain his seat in Northern Mississippi remain strong.

New Hampshire 01 (Shea-Porter) - Carol Shea-Porter pulled off a surprising 51-49 victory in 2006 against the heavily favored incumbent Jeb Bradley.  Bradley is running again in 2008 and he will give her a strong challenge to get his seat back.  

Pennsylvania 10 (Carney) - This year, Chris Carney doesn't have the luxury of running against a man embroiled in a sex scandal involving choking.  This seat in Pennsylvania's northeastern corner is strong Republican-leaning, and Carney faces a much tougher challenger this time out against businessman, Chris Hackett.  Still, Carney has kept this race in his favor thus far.  

Wisconsin 08 (Kagen) - Steve Kagen is a freshman Democrat in a Republican-leaning district in northeastern Wisconsin.  He is facing John Gard, Republican Speaker of the State Assembly and his challenger in 2006.  He is holding on well in the polls thus far.

Expect one Democratic seat from this group to become a Republican seat

10 Potential GOP pick-ups of Democratic seats to watch
Arizona 05 (Mitchell)
Georgia 12 (Barrow)
Illinois 14 (Foster)
Indiana 09 (Hill)
New Hampshire 02 (Hodes)
Pennsylvania 04 (Altmire)
New York 19 (Hall)
New York 20 (Gillibrand)
Oregon 05 (Open Seat)
Texas 23 (Rodriguez)

Key campaign resources
Cook Political Report
Politics1
Electoral Vote.com
Race Tracker
Daily Kos blogs on House districts
Larry Sabato House race analysis
Poll tracker
CQ Politics
National Journal House Rankings
Polls

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