Voter Registration Numbers Analysis

By: Ron1
Published On: 10/8/2008 3:39:14 PM

I compiled the following numbers from the Virginia State Board of Elections Registration Statistics website, and also from the Va SBE Election Results page:

# of Voters CD 1 CD 2 CD 3 CD 4 CD 5 CD 6 CD 7 CD 8 CD 9 CD 10 CD 11 Totals
Jan 1 '08 437,774 345,865 332,381 413,789 402,352 391,273 441,489 393,442 381,118 456,628 436,064 4,432,175
Sep 30 '08 472,280 373,676 376,317 445,350 426,185 414,917 473,276 428,079 398,416 489,078 462,893 4,760,557
New Voters 34,506 27,811 43,936 31,561 23,833 23,644 31,787 34,637 17,298 32,450 26,919 328,382
 
Nov. '06 444,891 364,983 353,365 424,486 407,643 396,787 448,701 413,013 393,577 463,003 444,234 4,554,683
New Voters 27,389 8,693 22,952 20,864 18,542 18,130 24,575 15,066 4,839 26,075 18,749 205,874
 
Nov. '04 436,254 368,603 357,441 415,743 399,736 390,160 446,242 421,320 392,165 448,971 440,897 4,517,531
New Voters 36,027 5,073 18,876 29,607 26,449 24,757 27,034 6,759 6,251 40,107 22,086 243,026

Okay, a brief explanation of this table (obviously broken down by congressional district as opposed to locality). These are the data from the SBE website approximately one week before the registration deadline -- so this is not the whole 'universe' that we'll be seeing on Election Day, but it should be close. For instance, in Congressional District 1, 34,506 voters have been registered since the beginning of the year (actually January 8, 2008, I believe). Because there are still approximately 7,000 fewer active registered voters in CD 1 now than there were in November of '06, this translates into a net gain of only 27,389 voters since Election Day '06 (these gains and losses between election days are due to the natural attrition of voter rolls due to deaths and people moving out of the district). I have included the same analysis from the data from November, 2004.

Please follow me across the jump for an in-depth look at the numbers
A couple of points really stick out. First of all, we have 243,026 more registered voters as of a week ago in Virginia than we did on Election Day in 2004 -- and that number could easily reach 250k or even 260k by the time the final numbers are released. George Bush and Dick Cheney carried Virginia by just over 260k votes in 2004. Virginia is going to vote for the Democratic ticket for the first time since 1964.

Comparing results since 2006, you can see again why Thelma Drake is in such trouble. Thelma won CD 2 by less than 5000 votes two years ago; new registrants alone more than equal that gap, even accounting for the lower voter turnout in '06 (48.3%) versus '04 (67.0%). If Glenn Nye is able to get his message out and the Obama/Warner/Nye field games perform their duties in CD 2, Thelma Drake will not be re-elected.

There is similar good news in CD 10. Judy Feder lost by fewer than 40k votes two years ago against Frank Wolf in an election with 52.6% turnout. It appears that around 30k (but perhaps 35k) new voters will have been registered in CD 10 by the time the final data is tabulated -- the vast majority of which we can probably assume are new Democratic voters registered by the Obama campaign and other activists. These new voters put Judy very close to on par with Frank Wolf, even assuming that no voters have changed their voting preferences in the last two years (highly dubious). CD 10 is probably the fastest changing electorate in the country in terms of partisan preference; if Obama voters vote for Judy, Judy will win.

A similar analysis holds for Tom Perriello in CD 5. CD 5 is a bit more uphill than CD 10, but not by a huge amount. Somewhere between 20k and 25k will have been added to the rolls in CD 5 compared to Election Day 2006 when Al Weed lost by also approximately 40k votes. New registrants can't close the entire gap, but they put the district squarely in play once the ground games are considered.

And finally, one can also see why Tom Davis decided to retire than run again on his atrocious record. Davis won by only 28k votes in 2006 in CD 11; nearly that many will have been registered by the time the final data are released.

Barack Obama; Mark Warner; Gerry Connolly; Glenn Nye; Judy Feder or/and Tom Perriello. If this combination is elected -- and the Democrats would be the odds on favorites in the Obama, Warner, and Connolly races at this point in time -- Virginia will have voted for a Democratic Presidential ticket, will have two Democratic Senators, and a Congressional delegation that is majority Democratic. Virginia can truly be said to be a blue state come November 5.

P.S. Sorry to everyone for accidentally screwing with the front page b/c of the large table.  

Comments



This in part why I voted for the most optimistic choice in the poll (tx2vadem - 10/11/2008 12:15:56 PM)
The other part is that the existing electorate is going to go into their polling place with the abysmal economy hanging over their head.  Loudon county residents will have both the great decline in their portfolios plus the high rate of foreclosure to push them firmly into the Democratic column.  I expect before October is out we will have another major collapse.  Most likely it will be GM (I base this on the fact that reports have their cash running out by this time next year).  On top of that you have the credit card companies closing accounts and cutting lines of credit.  That's going to kick a lot of people when they are down.  Unemployment rates are going up around the country.  Nevada's and Ohio's unemployment rates jumped passed 7%.  Not a pretty picture for Republican.