McCain no longer leads in any region of the state. In Northeastern VA, which includes the DC suburbs, Obama leads by 24 points. In Central Virginia, home of the Confederate White House, the Museum of the Confederacy and Appomattox, Obama today leads by 8. In Southeastern Virginia, Obama leads by 11. In the Shenandoah, where John McCain led by 24 points one month ago, Obama and McCain today tie.

Survey USA took a 19% African American polling sample.  Suffolk took 18%.  The 2004 exit polls showed AA turnout of 12%.  It'll obviously be up this year, but I don't know that it will be up that much.  

Survey USA also shows self-identified Dems exceeding Repubs by 9%.  Suffolk showed a spread of 14% +D.

I would be shocked if the race is tied or Barack is winning in the Shenandoah Valley (540 area code I assume) (both polls say tied or Barack up).  

All good news, but I'm not sure I think the margin is that wide.

Black turnout in 04 was only 12%?

I had no idea it was so low, but still I find an 18-20% range of African-American votes in this election more than reasonable.  20% of Virginia is African-American, and I do not see them sitting out of this election.  You should have seen the crowd at Newport News - not only was it majority-black, but every single one was registered to vote or being registered that day by volunteers.

These polls are clearly way to D-Dominated, but I see nothing wrong with their racial composition.

show that 21 percent of the electorate was black: http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/20...

I was looking at the AA support of George Bush in 2004!

Whatever it was, I have to believe AA turnout is going to be huge this year if turnout during the primaries was any indication.  I was really impressed by the numbers of African Americans at our polling place that day.  

and I too would be surprised if we've surged to a tie in western and southwestern VA.

The CNN exit polls from 2004 showed a 21% African-American turnout, which was probably slightly high.

According to my version of the Almanac of American Politics (2008), African-Americans constitute 19.4% of all Virginians. I would expect a record-breaking turnout from Virginia's African-American population this four weeks from tomorrow (!!!), so if anything 18 or 19% might be low.

All in all I agree with you, though -- I do think we are ahead in a statistically significant manner, but probably not by 12 points. However, this is the third or fourth poll showing such a wide margin -- it is conceivable at this point.  

From what I have read, Rasmussen will be releasing a poll on Virginia at 6 p.m. today.  I think after its release, we will have a better idea of where the race stands.

just a month out.  Still, I have to think that the margin will close in McCain's favor substantially (e.g. much like George Allen in 2006, it's understandable that some folks would be too embarrassed to acknowledge their support -- plus there might be a familiarity factor).  

The key factor is the 50+ numbers on Obama's side.  Anything over 50.0001 on election day works for me.

FWIW, I think Rasmussen may have some new numbers for Virginia tonight at 6 PM.

This may sound naive because I'm not a numbers cruncher, but could everybody be underestimating the newly registered voters?  Would they even turn up on a poll if they've never been registered or voted before and so could that be the sleeping giant?

I'm hesitant to bring that up because I don't want us to be overconfident, but is it a factor?

Nate at 538.com had a good discussion with Ann Selzer, a well respected pollster in Iowa and the Midwest. She had been showing dramatic Obama leads much earlier than the rest of the polling firms, mainly because she thinks the demographics have shifted a lot more than other pollsters are weighting for AND because she believes that most of these potential new voters will vote.

Perhaps these latest polls are just starting to pull more of the newly registered voters into their 'likely voter' screens, and thus we're starting to see this large gap emerge in more polling as the pollsters adjust to the new universe. Or, maybe the electorate is shifting rapidly AND the voter universe is expanding rapidly, in which case we might see a landslide of epic proportions on November 4.

Here is another good article today on the effect that a large black turnout could have in Georgia -- where currently, black voters are accounting for 40% of the electorate in Georgia early voting even though black Georgians only make up approximately 30% of the population.

I think we'll have to wait to compare the final polling results to the actual results to see who was right with their voter screen, but I definitely think it's a huge factor that may have yet to be accounted for in much of the polling.  

If there is one thing I want more than Obama to win on Nov. 4, its for Obama to win on Nov 4 and win Virginia.

And has been for about ten days.You can argue if its 10% or 7% or 12% today if you want, but I think it will break even better for Obama.

Remember the primary, which went for Obama in even bigger numbers than Maryland.

also , we are going to see the  mccain campaign go obviously racial, as they know its  do or die time. It will be ugly,
nasty,  but thats  the fscts, Jack

but I'd be happy with a five point win.

In recent canvassing forays in NOVA, I've been stumbling across a lot of I or ND targets who tell me that they are voting for McCain. Last weekend I encountered a surprisingly high number of voters who simply "refused" to engage. I'm convinced that a lot of the "undecideds" are really closet racists and bigots who will end up voting for the McCain/Palin ticket. Right now they know that they are probably going to lose, and the thought is making them surly. The "Bradley" (or "Wilder") effect may no longer apply to much of the country, but it seems still to be alive and well in Virginia.

NPR this morning interviewed an unabashedly racist white woman from southwestern Virginia. There are surely a lot more like that where she came from. In a drive out to Warrenton today I saw many McCain/Palin yard signs or large banners, but not a single Obama/Biden sign.

If the polls show us 10 points ahead on November 1st, we'll still need to put on a full court press GOTV effort that weekend, Monday, and Tuesday. This election could still be a close one--the same as Douglas Wilder's gubernatorial race.

There was a serious shortage of signs and bumper stickers in VA, and still is.  I'm not entirely sure of the reason, but I've heard the lions share of the funding has been going to registering voters, and not to materials like signs and stickers.

I know in our office, we recently had a group of yard signs purchased by a volunteer and given out only to people in our city.  We got one box of bumper stickers donated by an attorney in DC, and we were being very stingy with who we gave them out to.

I hope that changes soon, and it would be great to suddenly have a flood of material popping up all over the place.  It would certainly be an 'oh crap' moment if suddenly there was a sea of blue signs where there use to be nothing.

But, to your point, Warrenton is certainly republican territory, theres no doubt about that.

The Bradley effect isn't about people refusing to answer, and it's certainly not about racist independents who tell you they're voting for McCain (if anything, that's evidence against a Bradley effect). It's about people telling pollsters they'll vote for the black candidate but then actually voting for the white candidate. I have yet to see evidence of that from the many polls in the primaries.

I'm also skeptical that there are people so embarrassed about voting for McCain that they'll tell a pollster they're voting for Obama instead. McCain may be bad, but people aren't going to assume you're a racist just because you say you're voting for him.

I'm a lot more worried about Republican voter suppression than I am about a Bradley effect.

refers to self-described "undecided" voters who really intend all along to vote for the white guy and break heavily for him in the voting booth.

I sense something at work here in Virginia in the reptilian. right-wing. authoritarian mind, especially among those voters who simply "refuse" to engage in discussion. It is a certain anger, an inherent unwillingness to risk being asked a question or to be challenged (even politely) in their beliefs, almost a hard-wired refusal to be open to reality and the outside world. (Yeah, I know that sentence just sounded like BS delivered after a couple too many beers.)

In the Vast Red Abyss, to which large swaths of Virginia still belong, this sort of disengaged, close-minded sullenness may work in our favor by keeping many of these "undecideds" at home, but their barely controlled rage will also send many of them to the polls to vote for the old white guy and the perky, chirpy, fundie chick.

We need to remember 1989, when Wilder was ahead in the polls by an average of over 9 percent, and he ended up winning by only a half a percent. The main reason seems to have been a sharp break in the "undecideds" against Wilder and for the white guy, Coleman. By now a lot of those Coleman racists have died off and the "Wilder effect" is now probably smaller than 8 or 9 points, but I'm not yet ready to accept that we have a cakewalk here. I suspect that we need to have at least a 4 or 5 point cushion.

By the way, here is a suggestion for a drinking game during tomorrow night's debate: take a swig every time that McCain does one of his reptilian tongue flicks through his teeth.

Bradley-Wilder that I've heard are typically people giving a false positive answer.

I agree with your point though that some undecideds could be McCain-Palin leaners with guilty consciences.

It's not over!  It wasn't over when McCain was up, and it would take an EXTRAORDINARY scenario for it to be "over" any day before November 4th.

If Barack Obama keeps these numbers, not just in Virginia but nationwide (which I don't think he will, I think it will get tighter), and it's suddenly 3 days before the election and not a month before, then I'd concede that "it is basically over."

Until then, however, we need to repel every nasty attack, keep voters focused on important issues, and most importantly perhaps - get out the vote!

I wonder if they might reconsider after today's abysmal (for them) poll numbers.  On the other hand, I think they're committed to taking their Slime Tour '08 across the country before they pack it in November 4...

John McCain and Sarah Palin to campaign in Virginia Beach and Richmond

Arlington, Virginia (October 6, 2008) - McCain-Palin 2008 announced that John McCain and Sarah Palin will campaign in Virginia on Monday, October 13th. Senator McCain and Govenor Palin will hold a rally in Virginia Beach at 10:00 a.m. at the Virginia Beach Convention Center. Following the Virginia Beach event, Governor Palin will travel to Richmond to hold a 1:00 p.m. rally at the Arthur Ashe Center in Richmond.

Virginia Campaign Co-Chair, Attorney General Bob McDonnell said, "Voters statewide are excited to have the next President and Vice President of the United States bring their message of reform back to Virginia. John McCain and Sarah Palin will bring some much needed straight talk to the voters in Virginia about strengthening our economy, finding innovative solutions to our energy crisis, and keeping America safe. It is going to be a tough race in Virginia, but we are focused on winning Virginia so that John McCain and Sarah Palin can shake things up in Washington."

Voters can obtain tickets by going to the McCain Virginia website at Virginia.JohnMcCain.com or by visiting one of the Virginia Victory offices starting Tuesday, October 7th from 9:00 a.m. EDT to 9:00 p.m. EDT. Tickets will be available from Tuesday, October 7th through Monday, October 13th.

MCCAIN-PALIN VIRGINIA BEACH RALLY INFORMATION

WHO: John McCain and Sarah Palin

WHAT: McCain-Palin Campaign Rally

WHEN: Monday, October 13, 2008
           Doors open at 8:00 a.m. EDT
           McCain-Palin Rally begins at 10:00 a.m. EDT

WHERE: Virginia Beach Convention Center
             1000 19th Street
             Virginia Beach, VA 23451

is that Palin showed up to a campaign event in Omaha.  I believe the district went 20+ percent for Bush.  That speaks volumes if they are having to waste precious time in Nebraska.

They are defending more Bush states than Obama is defending Kerry states.  That's why they are in desperation mode.  If they can't change the debate to be one about Obama's character, then they lose.  

We'll see what happens on election day.  But I think these attacks will prove no more effective than when they were used in the primaries.  It will change people's perception to see McCain as a dark cloud of negativity and absent any ideas.  In the sea of attacks, they won't remember any of his solutions.

and nobody came?

We still have work to do getting people to vote for Feder/Connolly/Nye/Perriello/Hartke/Rasoul/Miller/Moran/Day.

It's a nice feeling being from BLUE Virginia.

..has Obama 50, McCain 48 with Barr and Nader included. Still within the 3 pt MOE.

http://www.rasmussenreports.co...

I think the important thing to take away from all three polls is that Obama is at 50 percent in each one.  That is very encouraging as we head into the final stretch.

Were these surveys taken before or after John Mcain's helpful brother Joe labeled NOVA "communist country"?

The question is whether that could help him enough in the rest of Virginia to make up for the lost NoVa votes.

the Suffolk numbers really are plausible -- and it dovetails with Karen's (AIAW's) question/comment.

The cross-tabs indicate a spread of 45% Democrats, 31% Republicans, and 24% Indy/Unaffiliated/Other. But the question essentially "pushes" leaners into camps, so that 45% number isn't outrageous. Moreover, this would really seem to include the broadening of the electorate that we are hearing about.

For instance, the poll asked about the 2004 choices for President from respondents. 295 responded Bush; 252 Kerry; 51 reported that they did not vote in 2004. If you remove those 51 voters from 'the universe', 295/549 = 53.7% for Bush to 252/549 = 45.9% for Kerry -- almost identical to the actual 53.8% Bush / 45.6% for Kerry results in 2004.

So, if the universe in 2004 3.19 million voters in Virginia (and that corresponds to the 549 voters in this poll that registered an answer for 2004), then the universe in 2008 under Suffolk's model is 3.48 million -- or a gain of 300k voters in 2008. There have been approximately 300k voters registered in Virginia during the primary cycle and now through September. If the overwhelming majority of these voters vote in November AND are supporting Obama, we could legitimately see a blowout on the order of what Suffolk is suggesting here.

And, again, removing these 51 respondents from the 'Obama' sample indicates a polling results very much in line with what Rasmussen has consistently been finding -- which is an Obama lead of 3 to 4 points.

By expanding the universe by 300k voters as has been done in Virginia since the beginning of the year, there is a legitimate chance for a Democratic blowout four weeks from tomorrow.

I will still cheer from the roof tops!

(Of course a blow-out would be even sweeter.)