Is George Allen Beatable? Hell Yes!

Let's quickly review George Allen's recent history in politics.  In 1993, Allen defeated Democratic nominee Mary Sue Terry for Governor.  How impressive is that?  Not very, according to respected pollster James Zogby.  According to Zogby:

Twelve years of Democratic party control of the Governor's mansion in Richmond ended with George Allen's victory over Mary Sue Terry.  But it might in all fairness be said that Republicans didn't win this election so much as the Democrats self-destructed and lost it.

After more than a decade of fairly effective rule which lent the Democrats an air of well-deserved confidence...Democratic Governor Doug Wilder and the Democratic Senator Chuck Robb revived their long-running feud just as Terry was starting her gubernatorial campaign.  Their four-year long feud has been sufficiently harsh and public enough to tarnish the image of the entire state Democratic party.

This negative image added to the lackluster campaign run by Mary Sue Terry, which was devoid of substance and lacking in charisma and fire, and managed to change a 30 point Terry lead in the polls to an embarrassing 17 point defeat.  Terry attempted to strike a conservative "tough on crime" stance, tying together support for a strong death penalty law and gun control in an effort to convince voters that she was not a "soft" woman candidate.  But the image never took, and the voters ended up choosing the genuinely conservative George Allen.

Though Virginia borders the nation's capital, Terry never invited President Bill Clinton to campaign with her because the Clinton's approval rating in the state [was] very low; and she didn't campaign with Governor Wilder until very late in the race.  Allen, on the other hand, made use of as many major Republican leaders as he could.  Even former President Richard Nixon participated in one of Allen's fundraising events.

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In the end, Terry's campaign never served to distinguish her in the minds of the voters or separate her from the image of her party, and she went down to defeat at the hands of an electorate seized by an anti-incumbent mood...

By the way, I don't mean to imply that Terry's loss was all her fault.  Recall that Bill Clinton's approval ratings had fallen into the low-to-mid 40's by the fall of 2003, leading into the Virginia gubernatorial election.  Also recall that the following year, Republicans swept to power in the House of Representatives with Clinton in the mid-to-upper 40's approval ratings.  Finally, recall that 1993-1994 Clinton health care debacle had a great deal to do with his low approval ratings.  In other words, Allen "won" in 1993 over a candidate - Mary Sue Terry - who ran a godawful campaign in a climate that was highly unfavorable to Democrats.  This year promises to be a radically different story.

Second, Allen defeated Chuck Robb for U.S. Senate in 2000 .  While this may seem impressive, defeating an incumbent Senator, I would note that Allen beat Robb by a not-so-spectacular 4.6 percentage points (52.3%-47.7%), running well behind President Bush (who defeated Al Gore by 8.1 points) in Virginia that Presidential election year.  This, despite the fact that Robb was outspent 3:1 by Allen, $20.1 million to $6.7 million.

In addition, Robb was a weakened candidate in many ways, tarnished by a sex scandal involving a former Miss Virginia, Tai Collins.  In addition, Robb was alleged to have attended parties at which cocaine was used, as well as to have listened in on illegally-recorded cell phone conversations of Doug Wilder.  Finally, Robb had barely survived a challenge by Oliver North 6 years earlier, mainly due to the help of independent Republican candidate J. Marshall Coleman.  The bottom line is that Robb was not a strong candidate in 2000, was outspent 3:1, but still only lost to Allen by 4.6 percentage points.

So what about 2006?  Can a strong Democratic candidate  - someone, let's just say, like James Webb - make up 4.6 percentage points against an Abramoff-tarnished Allen, in a state that just elected a supposed "liberal" (Tim Kaine) as Governor, and in which a real liberal (Leslie Byrne) lost by only 1 point?  Can a strong Democratic candidate win in a state which is seeing continual Democratic inroads in traditional Republican areas, like Loudoun and Prince William counties?  Last but not least, can a strong Democratic candidate win in the context of a national Republican Party that finds itself in disarray, tarnished by scandal, mismanagement, incompetence, cronyism, an unpopular and costly war, and budget deficits as far as the eye can see?  I am very confident he can.  As George Allen's fearless leader, George W. Bush, might say, "Bring it on!"

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