According to non-partisan, national political analyst Charlie Cook, the Republicans could be in serious trouble this November. Writing in the National Journal (subscription only), Cook says:
A year ago, with Republican victories in the 2004 elections still fresh and with President Bush's job-approval ratings still above 50 percent, Democrats' chances of capturing the House looked fairly slim. Today, however, with Bush's approval ratings hovering around 42 percent, the possibility of a Democratic takeover -- although less than 50-50 -- is very real.
House Democrats need a net gain of 15 seats this fall, which doesn't seem like much, in order to take control of the House. In a recent NBC News/Wall Street Journal Poll, Americans prefered that Democrats control Congress by a 9-point margin, 47%-38%. Another poll, conducted about the same time for ABC News and the Washington Post, found an even bigger Democratic advantage of 16 points (54%-36%).
Wow. In other words, it appears that Democrats could really kick ass this November, right? Well, it's not that simple. Unfortunately (if you care about Democracy and competitive elections), most Congressional Districts in this country are drawn in a way so as to keep incumbents in power. Also, while most people say they are not happy with Congress in general, they tend to like THEIR Congresscritter.
Still, according to Cook, the Democrats' chances of taking back the House are increasing. According to Cook, who has done a district-by-district analysis:
The current model predicts a net Democratic gain of 10 seats. When we factor in a four-seat margin of error, the model projects that as of today, under current conditions, and without speculating about what the national political environment may do between now and November, Democrats will make a net gain of six to 14 seats. With a bit of luck -- or a wave of any size -- Democrats might even grasp their gold ring: 15 seats.
So, what are the chances of a wave? How about an Abramoff/Iraq/"culture of corruption" political tsunami that swamps the Republicans? Personally, I respect Charlie Cook tremendously, but I wonder if he's being a bit too cautious in his analysis. Just in Virginia alone, I believe there are several Congressional Districts that could be competitive. For instance, my gut tells me that the 2nd Congressional District, currently held by Thelma Drake (R), is a likely Democratic pickup with either David Ashe or Phil Kellam as the Democratic nominee. And watch out JoAnn "Candy Cane" Davis in the 1st CD, you never know who might be gaining on you (someone like Shawn O'Donnell, perhaps?). Could Virgil "MZM Scandal" Goode (R-5), Frank Wolf "in sheep's clothing" (R-10), or even Tom "Teddy Kicks Ass" Davis (R-11) be in trouble? I don't know, but if I were them, I'd be starting to sweat a bit. And increasingly, Charlie Cook seems to agree.
P.S. By the way, the National Journal's "2006 Senate Race Rankings" has this to say about Virginia: "We'll admit, this race would intrigue us more if the Dems nominated Jim Webb rather than Harris Miller. Either candidate is a headache for Allen."
[UPDATE: The Washington Post has an analysis which basically comes to the same conclusion as Cook - Democrats have a serious chance to regain the House. However, like Cook, the Post apparently doesn't consider any of the Congressional races in Virginia to be truly competitive. I respectfully disagree.]