with the caveat that much will depend on Ifill and the follow-up questions she asks. Because of that, I think there is a small chance (5%) that this could turn into a car wreck for her.

The latest I have heard is that Palin's strategy is to aggressively go after Obama and Biden, presumably to goad Biden into returning fire, and having the debate be about that rather than substance.

She's already dragging down the ticket. Expectations are shockingly low. If she blows it, the current narrative (that she's dangerously underqualified) will be confirmed, and Obama keeps his lead. If she outperforms the expectations and gets in a few good jabs at Obama, the media will pick up on that, and Obama may lose a few points. Bottom line: the O team has the momentum, and therefore everything to lose with this debate. I know that VP debates don't matter, but then again, this debate is supposed to have a record-sized audience, and how many other historical precedents have been shattered in this race? A majority of people think that Palin is underqualified, but a (slim) majority still view her favorably. If I were hedging my bets on the outcome here, I'd say there are still a fair number of independents out there who have their doubts about her, but are hoping to be pleasantly surprised.

If you watch the tapes of her Alaska debates, she's really good.  She comes across as capable and connected.  Biden is walking in to a minefield.  If he's too tough, he's a bastard, if he gets whooped it could cost the campaign their amazing current momentum.

Any huge gaffes will be megaphoned.

I see very few chances of a win for Biden and lots of ways for him to lose.

We're looking at very dangerous stuff here, I expect to see us lose 2 to 4 points in the polling within a week.

Does she follow up aggressively to Palin non-answers?  If she does, of course, the right-wingnuts will claim that she's "biased" and discount it.  If she doesn't, then Palin can win the debate by flashing her beauty queen smile and not drooling.  Someone remind me, what use are these things?

and fall flat on her face.

Viewers have now been primed by Palin (and Tina Fey) to look for her subject-changing rambles into incoherent gibberish.

Gwen Ifill is a seasoned pro, and I expect her questions to be solid and substantive. Ifill will also be able to remain under control and in control of the format in the face of Palin's filibustering "Wilhelm scream" gibberish, just as Katie Couric was able to do. I doubt that Ifill has been intimidated by the wingnut campaign against her yesterday and today.

The wild card is Joe Biden. Just hope that he can avoid saying or doing something blatantly stupid tonight. If he can stick to the substance, remain his genial self, and avoid a major gaffe, the chasm in knowledge and competence between him and Palin should be apparent even to low information swing voters.

but at least "moderate information voters" should be able to see this if Biden does what he needs to do and Ifill is an aggressive, professional moderator (which I expect her to be).

The fact that she still has anyone who thinks she's not dumb as a stone is testament to the fact that some people aren't paying attention, and won't be tonight.

What she has to do tonight is to answer a question with an, er, answer.  If she can't do that, then she loses, no matter how cute she looks or how well she is able to kill her time without doing a tap dance, I mean literally, by tap dancing.

The lowest of the low information voters will not be watching. But maybe a few of their slightly more moderate information friends will watch and and pass on their reactions on the debate.

At least we can hope.

Because of the economic meltdown and the Democrats' ability to frame the narrative on what caused it (old fashioned unregulated greed from the party of Herbert Hoover), voter sentiments are rapidly swinging in Obama/Biden's direction. Palin just counts for couple of points around the margins, and perhaps Biden can make those negative points for the Republican ticket rather than positive ones.

I'm starting to think that even West Virginia might merit a little attention from Team Obama. Labor seems to be getting solidly behind him there, just like back in the days of Hubert Humphrey. Why not send Bill and Hill there for a little offense--or at least a diversion-in-force?

Bill and Hillary should be spending some quality time in the coal belt regions that she did very well and Obama did horribly during the primary.  A strong positive campaign effort from them would bring out many more Obama votes in those areas than door-to-door campaigning by Obama himself would.

If McCain and his "brains" Schmidt and Davis don't figure out the difference between strategy and tactics pretty soon, they are going to be routed, as the military analysts like to say, "in detail."

don't see how Palin can be the attack dog that all indications say she plans to be and still retain her "hockey mom" charm. I'm picturing more Bob Dole, circa '76 debate, but better dressed.

realize she played this role well at the convention but in the confines of the debate format, she's going to end up sounding more strident than charming

hunch is the the Palin camp already has planned some pretend hurt comeback to an imagined Biden slight in the debate. The "sexist" Biden talking points are probably all ready for use by many of the Republican talking heads post debate.

that's my main debate worry. that Biden doesn't give them anything of substance to pin that label upon.

I'm sure Palin memorized lots of sounds bites at 'Debate Camp' this week, but I hope Gwen Ifill pushes for real answers.  Of course, if Sarah doesn't do well the campaign has that side covered too, as stated by spokesperson Nicole Wallace in today's Post:

"I'm shocked personally at how brutal many of the women in the media have been."

 That of course would be Katie, and that nasty Campbell Brown.

They have actually overall been far too easy on her.  Any male who was such an incompetent and who unloaded the pile of nonsense Palin has unleashed would be laughed and ridiculed off the ticket.  That anyone thinks her credible just shows how unequal are the requirements for Republicans vs. Democrats.  What a joke.  The whole McCain/Pail duo are stumbling their way through.  

"Brutal"? Brutal is the kind of politics McCain and Palin push and practice.  Brutal is the bullying by the radical right, the vicious (false) ads that have been playing for weeks.  Bullying is the whole wrecking crew agenda of McCainiacs and radical cons.

And we had better "fight" hard and tenaciously against them or they will destroy the best of America (or what's left of it following GW Bush). I think we will win.  God help us if we do not.

Though they have done some (somewhat minimal fact-checking) the so-called mainstream media are still not telling readers and viewers that nearly every word out of their mouths is false.

The above was not directed at Barbara, but rather the shocked, shocked Nicole Wallace.

when reading a prepared speech with a teleprompter, or when she is reading from notes.

When she is up there by herself she rambles and doesn't make any sense.  She is able to dish out the catty remarks and the cheap shots however - I expect to see lots of those from her tonight.  Which most voters will be turned off by...

I am thinking that the theme that Biden can go with is that the country needs mature leaders.

She's so low, she'd have to look up to look down.  And with a bar set so low, and media spinners telling us (essentially) all she has to do is not pass out to have "won," I say Not!

We are feeding the nonsense by even talking about it.  She read a speech at the RNC.  She is incapable of rational thought on any subject of national interest.  And, no Sarah, you didn't "oversee" 20% of the nation's oil supply.  Oil companies did that.  You made their lives easier.  But oversee?  She keeps making this claim.

There is no way that one debate will make Sarah Palin into a credible VP candidate.  And never a credible person to be a heartbeat away.  And we should end any silly predictions that she'll score acceptably.  She doesn't have it in her.  

Unless Gwen Ifill has been so intimidated by the radical cons that she throws only softballs, with no followup, Palin will go down in overwhelming defeat.  But the media and the GOP will claim she won because she showed up.

I kinda think the media has no interest in pumping her up -- she's offended their insider sensibilities.

I'm with you Kathy, I predict an arse-whooping. Biden excels in debates, and he will have jabs ready if she decides to 'go there' (i.e., attacks).

I actually think this format might even hurt her -- there's no chance for back and forth, for her to redeem herself. It's like her sit downs with Couric, except in front of live people. She'll sound vacuous and ignorant and absolutely out of her element, and that'll be that.  

She has debated before, she is capable of using note cards, she is capable of memorizing specific short "canned" replies that will include....statistics!!!and she has attended debate "bootcamp". My question is, is it really a debate..or just a proclamation forum. With little time for rebuttal...cannot dig down into positions.

My guess is she will use a lot of .."You know Gwen, as a mom..." "Gwen, the American people deserve better", "Gwen, America is hurtin out there"..Pop-u-list replies and she will "smack" Biden around with her clever quips.

Plenty of Palin bingo cards out there including this one

Under normal circumstances, Sarah Palin would perform fine, but with the Couric interview, where she couldn't remember the Supreme Court case she publicly condemned, she may be deer in headlights, getting flustered.  Do you really think she can answer any question in detail that she doesn't have full knowledge about?

Not in the rude way that McCain tried to ignore Obama, but his answers should be "john McCain will be another 4 years of Bush's failed policies." or "Senator Obama and I support the reapeal of the Bush tax cuts while The McCain policy of ... will"

By not replying to her ramblings he can keep his half of the debate on target and avoid looking condescending or sexist.

"MY administration" or a "Palin-McCain Administration will do..." She's already slipped up that way a couple of times, and it's very revealing.

Palin was asked which past VP's she admires most.  After thinking about for a second, she said "oh, any of them I guess who have gone on to be President.  Bush Sr, I suppose".

You can't make this stuff up.  

I don't even care about McCain any more.  Defeat Palin.