New Q-Poll: Obama Up 8 Points in FL and OH, 15 Points in PA
By: Lowell
Published On: 10/1/2008 8:15:31 AM
Please tell me this is real!
*Florida: Obama up 49-43 percent pre-debate and 51-43 percent post-debate;
*Ohio: Obama up 49-42 percent pre-debate and 50-42 percent post-debate;
*Pennsylvania: Obama ahead 49-43 percent pre-debate and 54-39 percent post-debate. Pre-debate surveys ended at 8 p.m. Friday with post-debate surveys Saturday-Monday.
Meanwhile, Insider Advantage has Obama up 51%-45% in Virginia. Again, please tell me this is true and accurate. OK, so can we hold the election today? :)
Comments
GOTV (Early) Should be the Push NOW (Matt H - 10/1/2008 8:28:54 AM)
While the momentum is swinging Obama's way, I really hope that were applicable, people are being encouraged to vote as soon as possible since issues, people, the media and everything else can be so fickle.
Ohio voting has started (Lowell - 10/1/2008 8:38:51 AM)
as has a GOTV push.
In Virginia Too (oldsoldier - 10/1/2008 1:32:06 PM)
As someone who crossed-over and voted for McCain solely for his then stand on Campaign Finance Reform, I got a DEMOCRATS WILL RAISE YOUR TAXES absentee ballot application with a "Vote Now, Vote Here, Vote" similar to the Drill here jingoe. Mama will be out of state but will use the application for Obama. Is that a jingoe? Mamas for Obama? I added an e to jingo in memory of Dan Quayle and in anticipation of Sarah Palin.
it's a combination of three things (bcat - 10/1/2008 9:05:02 AM)
1) Palin backlash.
2) Obama's performance in the debate reassured a lot of wavering independents and Democrats.
3) Economic crisis favors Obama.
I hope it isn't coming too early, or if it is, I hope his lead remains solid through the next few weeks. November 4th is a long, long time away. #3 could diminish as a national issue if stocks recover and the bailout falls off the front pages. #2 could change if he has a bad showing in the town hall debate. #1 could be reversed or exacerbated, depending on her performance on Thursday night.
Yeah, I wish the election (Lowell - 10/1/2008 9:13:16 AM)
were being held today. But, nothing we can do about that...just keep working at it, talking to your friends and neighbors, donating generously to Democrats, and we'll win this thing on November 4. G'Obama!
I think it is too late for Palin... (ericy - 10/1/2008 9:26:22 AM)
The narrative is already set in concrete, and she would need to come out on Thursday as articulate and knowledgeable as Rachel Maddow in order to change these perceptions.
This is kind of like the "Al Gore invented the internet", or "Kerry is an elitist" thing. Once the basic idea gets set in the mind of the public, it is really hard to dislodge. But as more material comes out that supports the idea, it will reinforce the idea. I gather that CBS is releasing more today sometime..
Regarding the economic crisis, it has been building for months. Even if the stock market recovers, you still have lots of people being foreclosed upon, and many more that are underwater on their homes. The banks and companies that went BK are gone for good - a rally won't bring them back.
Hope that Nate Silver analyzes these Q-Poll internals today. (FMArouet21 - 10/1/2008 11:14:55 AM)
They look like real outliers, and I suspect that there may be something amiss here regarding sample weightings. But the trendline in Pennsylvania may permit Team Obama to start thinking of diverting resources away from merely holding Pennsylvania (and states like Michigan and Minnesota) and to investing in more media spots (especially the relatively hard-hitting radio spots) to give McCain a tough fight even in Indiana and Missouri.
It certainly does appear as though Ohio and Florida will be genuinely in play.
Maybe the Obama ground game can flip one or the other, which will make it essentially impossible for McCain to get to 270 electoral votes. If we can deliver Virginia with our ground game and if Obama can make McCain worry about North Carolina, McCain will be in a very tight spot.
If you think that you've seen wild and erratic for the past two weeks, imagine how McCain (and Palin) will flail away for the next month.
New poll shows Obama up 6 points in Virginia (Rebecca - 10/1/2008 10:06:29 AM)
A new InAdv/PollPosition poll shows Obama ahead by 6 points in Virginia.
CNN (uva08 - 10/1/2008 5:09:43 PM)
CNN just released polls showing Obama up big here in Virginia. They have him up by 9 in a head to head and 10 when all third-party candidates are included. Yes, TEN in Virginia. Florida results are also similar to the Q poll released this morning.
http://www.pollster.com/blogs/...
The Republicans (Teddy - 10/1/2008 6:25:16 PM)
will really have to double down, try to twist the debates, jigger the polling, gin up lawsuits, send in the thugs. Look at the piggybank video from agitpop just posted above. The grass roots everywhere seem to be in a stubborn state of rebellion, and for now it redounds to the advantage of Obama. But watch out, if McCain reinvents himself yet again and runs to get in front of the rebellion (the way Mussolini did when he took over Italy), the entire election could flip again.
