I have long thought it is folly to expect failure from your competition.  If you do, all they need do is be better than the low expectations, and they can call it success.

  This phenomenon is old:
  Before a major battle, Goebbels was known to exaggerate the expected casualities the German army would sustain by doubling them.  Then when the actual number came in at half his publicized estimate, the German government would call the battle a victory.  

at the same time we should continue to push back vigorously against her incompetence, and expect the media to point out the truth, that she is not even marginally equipped for the position she seeks.  We must also point out that Palin merely just doing better than expected isn't a "win" when her continuing performance is so unacceptable.  There has to be a reasonably high bar set, no matter what.  She has shown herself incapable of answering questions in a thoughtful way and we need to continue to make the case that she is unfit to be a heartbeat away.  It is not just political spin.  It is the truth.  Even right-wing columnist Kathleen Parker agrees that Palin should step aside.

I think she'll need to bomb in the debate.  In the Gubernatorial debates in Alaska, the stakes weren't nearly as high.  It is very possible on the world stage, she will not be able to handle the pressure.  I don't know what that is going to look like.  However, my guess is that she will struggle only marginally.  If she does that, she'll remain on the ticket.

You'd think we'd have learned how to play the expectations game better after all those times we underestimated Bush and found him declared the "winner" as long as he avoided drooling on himself.

...and Sarah Palin is Bush in a skirt.  Look at her policies and ideas.  Sound familiar?  

We've been going after her relentlessly from day #1 simply because we do NOT underestimate her or her potential appeal.  Why this diary now, I don't get it.

I believe that when certain media pundits are indicating that she may be dropped from the ticket because she is such a weak running mate, that sets her up for a debate scenario where all she has to do is not screw up completely.  This is a reaction to several rumor-mill stories I have heard about her possibly being dropped from the ticket.

I don't want her to emerge on Thursday stronger than we thought, saying to the media "...and you thought he would drop me, huh?  I am here to stay!"

Now, responsible journalists and the blogs, like this one, have been doing our homework and attacking her on hypocrisy, her public statements, and the McCain campaign's refusal to put her on the hot seat.  

I am referring to the media predictions, some coming from Democratic pundits, that she will be obliterated in the debate on Thursday, and run away with her tail between her legs.  I think that is unwise.  I am in no way criticizing the good people at Raising Kaine.  However, I had hoped to spark a discussion like this one, and I am glad to get all these responses with differing opinions...like Teddy's below.

not the brightest sometimes. But then again, we knew that. Anyway, we're going to keep pounding on Palin, just as a few principled conservatives (see here for the most prominent) are now doing.

With Couric she couldn't give a coherent answer and, being interviewed by a woman meant she couldn't cross and re-cross her legs for distraction purposes, or give the interviewer a starry-eyed sincere look and hope to snow the interviewer. But she's a quick study. We have heard a disconnected series of talking points designed to appeal to the low-information voter that already thinks she's walking on water. By the time of the debate she'll have those points filed correctly and stapled together, and she will deliver them with full faith and credit. Poor, gentlemanly Biden, who frequently says things complimentary of his opponent, will not know how to correct her lies and distortions without losing sympathy for himself.

I personally think she's formidable; I've seen her dominatrix type before take over every male animal in a room (including the dogs), turn them every way but loose, get them stumbling around, not  knowing what hit them, and she walks off having dazzled all present, even though everything she said was errant nonsense. I almost pity Biden.  Could we send in a pinch hitter like, say, Hillary?

bumper sticker slogans on virtually every possible debate topic to avoid sounding like a complete airhead. She will likely be prepared to throw red meat to the adoring "Base," and that is her main job for the campaign.

There is apparently a third Couric interview segment which has not yet aired on CBS. Perhaps CBS will at least put it up on the web this week so that people could have a look. Rumor has it that the third segment is even more incoherent than the first two. If it goes public before Thursday night, Palin will feel even more pressure to perform well in the VP debate. Perhaps with enough such pressure she could end up in panic mode and suffer a public meltdown. We need to keep in mind, though, that a certain number of low information voters will be impressed by "smiley, perky, and chirrupy" and won't even perceive that the words she is uttering can be utterly incoherent.

Maybe Biden could think of a little something to throw Palin off her game early in the debate. Remember how the aging Bobby Riggs one-upped Margaret Court in the famous Mother's Day tennis match by presenting her with a bouquet before the match? Riggs then won the match easily.  

Like you, I'm a little worried about Biden. But he did well during the primary debates, and despite a few gaffes he has been doing well on the stump during the past month. I'm assuming that Obama's people will ensure that he is well prepped to attack McCain's positions and Republican policies in general, rather than to mock or condescend to Palin. (We can all see how that attitude came across for McCain last night.)

Biden needs especially to beware of being mugged and neutered by Palin's carefully coached and rehearsed "zingers." Will he be fast enough on his feet to respond with wit rather than with anger? He seems to have good control of his temper, so he should be able to resist displaying a McCain-style nastiness, which only serves to turn off the undecided voters.

"Seeing as we have an expert on Russia in the house, please enlighten us on our policies towards Russia since the end of the Cold War and which ones you would continue or change, won't you Governor?"

Biden: "Do you think that the Truman Doctrine still has any relevance for U.S. foreign policy? Or is it simply now obsolete?"

Palin (nervously re-crossing legs, grinning like an anxious teeny-bopper, earnestly leaning forward): "In what respect, Joe?"

Watching her in interviews, I think her problem is that she actually tries to answer the question that is asked. But, of course, she doesn't really know her own mind on a lot of these issues because she has not thought about them, and so she sounds like an idiot.

Of course, she is not an idiot. She is simply ill-prepared to be Vice President of the United States.

In getting prepped, Palin is not learning about the issues, she is learning talking points and trying to memorize answers and catch-phrases.

While that only gets you so far in a one-on-one, however, where there is opportunity for follow-up and it is in the questioners interest to challenge her, but in debates, it seems a candidate can get away more easily with talking-point repetition. And from what I've heard about the format of this debate, that should be easily accomplished.

The plan for the GOP will be to recapture the meme from her convention speech, based on the expectations game, specifically, that the elite media puts down common folk like her and thinks they are stupid, but she showed them!

My sense is that the Obama folks have decided, correctly in my view, that hammering her doesn't help them, which is why they agreed to this debate format that hides her weaknesses.

In fact, if he is smart Biden will spend much of his time not criticizing Palin at all, but going after McCain. I doubt Palin will be able to respond on any factual basis, and unless her talking points cover it, she will have to leave those attacks unanswered.

Now, whether Palin is able to do her part, we shall see. If Biden gets her off-message, it could make for an entertaining evening.

If Biden focuses on issues, which he will, he can put her on the spot to have to defend these issues.  Since she can only do so in talking points, any nuance injected into the discussion will likely throw her off guard.  The idea is that there are supposed to be two educated adults in the room vying to be a heartbeat away from the Presidency.  If one person appears like an educated adult (Joe Biden), and the other doesn't (Sarah Palin), then the Democrats have succeeded.  I think that is exactly what will happen.

Biden can attack McCain and then let Palin try and defend him.  That way he won't appear to be picking on her, nor will he appear to be beating up on a weaker opponent.

Of course the one thing we do know about her is that she is really good at dishing out the catty remarks.  Which will be popular with her base, but will be unpopular with everyone else.

The whole alaska debate from 2006.

http://cspanjunkie.org/?p=407

Despite the many one dimensional answers; she will be able to put coherent statements together.  Also if they get into energy she can do pretty well.  Look at this softball interview on Larry Kudlow.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v...

Kind of like a football team scouting competition.  I Biden watches that debate, or at least someone who is coaching him watches that debate to assess her weaknesses.

she was a long time resident, who had run state wide for LT Gov  in 2002, and had served in an important appointed position.

She had background knowledge, and knew what she thought

But she liacks the background knowledge on most topics about which she is likely to be asked.  She will not be all that fluid.  And intensity will not make up for it.

I do not underestimate her, but I also do not expect that she will do all that well

I mean, you just can't expect to bone up and sound both knowledgable and and competent on issues/matters that you've never in your life had to think about before. There are too many subjects you can be asked about.

It's really not even her fault -- except she had a chance to turn down the offer.

I expect another debacle from her.  

One way to distill the essence of the McCain/Palin campaign.

According to Mark Crispen Miller's book, even bush can get pointed and accurate when he is fighting.  She knew her subject, i.e., making money for alaskans, she spent her life there.  But like bush she will have trouble putting real life into context.  

They say Giuliani is traveling with McSame.  Is there any chance he will replace her by Thursday.  Things are falling apart for her.  

I noticed in a picture of her and Kissinger, he looked like a lecher and she was pulling back slightly.  I think it was when they were departing and he was leaning in to her and she was trying to get away.  If she is going to flash sexuality at them she will have to get used to them responding.

However, it would be another huge gamble by McCorpse/Pablum to somehow 'dumb her down' so much before the debate that she can't possibly lose unless she just has a complete come-apart and starts crying on TV.

I'll wait to pass final judgement until next Thursday, but if past events are any indiction, she should just say pass to all the questions and sit quietly.

if she comes apart on stage and cries, it will not affect women in politics at all because so very few women affiliate with Palin at this point. It just means that no women will be picked for the Republican ticket again. :P

duke it out or something. :) See Trippi's Daily Kos diary:

Picking Sarah Palin was a bold move - I urged taking her pick seriously - but her recent perfprmance is raising doubts about McCain's judgment. The erratic behavior of his campaign over the past week - suspending his campaign - left most scratching their heads and asking what the hell was that about? Disastrous. Then in the debate last night there was John McCain ready to take anyone on - Russia, China, North Korea, Iran - all of them, and then turned and said Obama didn't get it. In my view McCain may have sounded more dangerous to voters as he tried so blatantly to make them think Obama wasn't a safe bet in this very "scary" world.

And can someone please explain to me how John McCain went into the debate last night not armed with the one thing that would have made him seem safe? Where was the John McCain who said, in his GOP acceptance speech in St Paul, "I hate war, its terrible beyond imagination"? Where was that guy? Because the guy that showed up seemed to want to send troops just about everywhere. Who's scary now?

And this week comes the Palin/Biden debate - that ought to calm people's doubts and fears.

I know the polls show it is close - but when states like Missouri , Florida and Virginia are still in the toss-up category that signals a potential Obama rout to me. And it certainly isn't the electoral map you want to be looking at if you work for McCain at this point.

...she did very well in the Miss Alaska contest. I expect her to slaughter Biden when they get to the swimsuit competition.